During its latest FY2024 earnings call, NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang gave a few predictions about future products. The upcoming Blackwell B300 series, codenamed "Blackwell Ultra," is scheduled for release in the second half of 2025. It will feature significant performance enhancements over the B200 series. These GPUs will incorporate eight stacks of 12-Hi HBM3E memory, providing up to 288 GB of onboard memory, paired with the Mellanox Spectrum Ultra X800 Ethernet switch, which offers 512 ports. Earlier rumors suggested that this is a 1,400 W TBP chip, meaing that NVIDIA is packing a lot of compute in there. There is a potential 50% performance increase compared to current-generation products. However, NVIDIA has not officially confirmed these figures, but rough estimates of core count and memory bandwidth increase can make it happen.

Looking beyond Blackwell, NVIDIA is preparing to unveil its next-generation "Rubin" architecture, which promises to deliver what Huang described as a "big, big, huge step up" in AI compute capabilities. The Rubin platform, targeted for 2026, will integrate eight stacks of HBM4(E) memory, "Vera" CPUs, NVLink 6 switches delivering 3600 GB/s bandwidth, CX9 network cards supporting 1600 Gb/s, and X1600 switches—creating a comprehensive ecosystem for advanced AI workloads. More surprisingly, Huang indicated that NVIDIA will discuss post-Rubin developments at the upcoming GPU Technology Conference in March. This could include details on Rubin Ultra, projected for 2027, which may incorporate 12 stacks of HBM4E using 5.5-reticle-size CoWoS interposers and 100 mm × 100 mm TSMC substrates, representing another significant architectural leap forward in the company's accelerating AI infrastructure roadmap. While these may seem distant, NVIDIA is battling supply chain constraints to deliver these GPUs to its customers due to the massive demand for its solutions.

Earlier in the year, we heard about TSMC being ahead of the game with its speculated trial production run of cutting-edge 2 nm (N2) silicon. Taiwan's premier foundry company is reportedly prepping its Baoshan and Kaohsiung plants for full-on manufacturing of next-gen chips. The latest insider whispers propose that TSMC is making "rapid" progress on the 2 nm (N2) front, as company engineers have moved onto an "intensive" trial production phase. Taiwan's Economic Daily News has picked up on compelling projections from industry moles; the Hsinchu Baoshan facility's current monthly production capacity is (allegedly) around 5000 to 10,000 2 nm wafers. The other 2 nm-specialist site—Kaohsiung—has reportedly moved into a small-scale appraisal phase.

TSMC declined to comment on recently leaked data points, but they released a general statement (to UDN), emphasizing that: "(our) 2 nm process technology is progressing well and will go into mass production as scheduled in the second half of this year." The Baoshan plant could ramp up to 25,000 2 nm wafers per month, once it moves into a mass production phase. Combined with the same estimated output from its sister site (Kaohsiung), insiders reckon that the combined total could reach 50,000 units per month. Following a predicted successful "second phase" transition, TSMC's most advanced facilities have a "chance" to pump out 80,000 2 nm parts (combined total). The latest murmurs suggest that this milestone could be achieved by the end of 2025. Industry watchdogs believe that Apple will have first access dibs on TSMC's upcoming cutting-edge offerings.

Rumors previously suggested that NVIDIA might scale back its CoWoS orders from TSMC. However, according to a report from Economic Daily News, orders for TSMC's advanced packaging have instead seen a surge. NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture GPUs are in strong demand, leading the company to secure over 70% of TSMC's CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025. Shipment volumes are projected to rise by more than 20% each quarter, with total annual shipments expected to surpass 2 million units.

Meanwhile, following the U.S. announcement of the Stargate project—which is anticipated to drive new AI server demand—NVIDIA is reportedly considering placing additional orders with TSMC. During TSMC's earnings call in January, Chairman C.C. Wei stated that the company is continuously expanding its advanced packaging capacity to keep pace with customer demand. According to reports, advanced packaging revenue accounted for roughly 8% in 2024 and is projected to exceed 10% in 2025.

On Wednesday (February 19), Apple announced the upcoming launch of its "budget-friendly" iPhone 16e smartphone model. The Cupertino, California-based company has refreshed its entry level product tier—starting at $599—with modernized internals. Apple's new design houses an A18 chipset, as well as their much-discussed debut modem design. The C1 is a custom 5G part; fully developed in-house. Previously, modern iPhone product ranges have been fitted with Qualcomm 5G modems. As expected, Apple contracted with TSMC for the production of A18 and C1 silicon—the A-type SoC is based on a 3 nm process node (TSMC N3E). Their proprietary modem baseband design utilizes 4 mm, while the receiver uses a 7 nm process—according to insiders.

Taiwan's Commercial Times reckons that TSMC will be the "biggest beneficiary" from the aforementioned agreement with Apple. Ctee TW's latest report cites industry analysis; soothsayers estimate annual shipments reaching roughly 22 million units annually. Additional whispers suggest that the C1 modem will turn up in non-iPhone devices—namely next-gen Watches and iPads, by next year. The report also mentions that upcoming Mac products are slated for C1 upgrades. Further leaks have linked project "Ganymede" to a "C2" custom 5G modem design—inside sources believe that a 3 nm TSMC process is on the cards. Another codename—"Prometheus"—was leaked by insiders; possibly referencing a future "C3" model.

Intel has unveiled some interesting advances in semiconductor manufacturing at the International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC), showcasing the capabilities of its highly anticipated Intel 18A process technology. The presentation highlighted significant improvements in SRAM bit cell density. The PowerVia system, coupled with RibbonFET (GAA) transistors, is at the heart of Intel's node. The company demonstrated solid progress with their high-performance SRAM cells, achieving a reduction from 0.03 µm² in Intel 3 to 0.023 µm² in Intel 18A. High-density cells showed similar improvement, shrinking to 0.021 µm². These advancements represent scaling factors of 0.77 and 0.88 respectively, which are significant achievements in SRAM technology, once thought to be done with scaling benefits.

Implementing PowerVia technology is an Intel-first approach to addressing voltage drops and interference in processor logic areas. Using an "around the array" scheme, Intel strategically applies PowerVias to I/O, control, and decoder elements while optimizing bit cell design without a frontal power supply. The macro bit density of 38.1 MBit/mm² achieved by Intel 18A puts the company in a strong competitive position. While TSMC reported matching figures with their N2 process, Intel's comprehensive approach with 18A, combining PowerVia and GAA transistors, could challenge Smausng and TSMC, with long-term aspirations to compete for premium clients currently served by TSMC, including giants like NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD.

Last December, Intel revealed that its next-generation "Celestial" GPU architecture was "complete." At the time, Team Blue's Tom "TAP" Petersen revealed: "our IP that's kind of called Xe3, which is the one after Xe2, that's pretty much baked... And so the software teams have a lot of work to do on Xe3. The hardware teams are off on the next thing (aka Xe4/Druid), right." Noted Intel inside info leaker—Raichu—believes that "Celestial" will be: "different from Panther Lake, Celestial dGPU looks like will maybe be based on Xe3P instead of Xe3. I estimate it will (be) based on INTC's process instead of outside." Their Friday evening (February 14) social media declaration suggests that Team Blue is bringing things in-house for the manufacturing of discrete "Celestial" graphics cards; utilizing an Intel Foundry node process, rather than rely on TSMC once more. The latter's foundry produced the Arc "Alchemist" and "Battlemage" dGPU generations.

Intel's rumored "Xe3P" architecture is not a fully known quantity, but reports from last November pointed to the existence of multiple "Xe3" variants; courtesy of information gleaned from an employee's LinkedIn profile. Over the past two weeks, we have witnessed plenty of leaks alluding to future Intel CPU families, but the flow of Arc graphic solutions-related leaks seemingly slowed down around the launch of Intel's budget-friendly "Battlemage" B570 card. Recent-ish insider disclosures have uncovered a possible expansion of the current-gen Arc series, with more SKUs rumored to be on the way. A certain group of industry watchdogs reckon that the unannounced "BGM-G31" GPU will be the basis for higher-end "Battlemage" B-series models, but others believe that options above B580 and B570 are canceled—potentially paving the way for "Xe3P-based" C-series designs later this year, or in 2026.

According to sources close to the Wall Street Journal, Intel is weighing preliminary acquisition offers that could split the company into two parts: product and foundry. TSMC and Broadcom are independently exploring deals that would divide Intel's chip design and manufacturing operations. Broadcom has initiated informal discussions regarding Intel's chip design and marketing divisions, while TSMC is considering assembling an investor consortium to acquire Intel's facilities. This solution is improbable, as Intel's fabs are strategically one of the most critical aspects of the US semiconductor supply chain. Intel manufactures custom chips for the US Department of Defense; hence, having a foreign owner of fabs is not acceptable. The news about the acquisition comes as Intel grapples with manufacturing setbacks, including a total $13.4 billion loss in its foundry segment during 2024 and a significant erosion of market share in the AI processor market.

The acquisition talks face substantial regulatory hurdles, particularly regarding national security concerns. The US government has signaled resistance to foreign ownership of Intel's domestic manufacturing capabilities, which are deemed strategically vital to American technological sovereignty. This could particularly impact TSMC's bid for Intel's plants despite the Taiwanese company's position as the world's leading contract chipmaker. Intel's vulnerability to acquisition follows a series of strategic missteps under former leadership, including delayed manufacturing innovations and an increasing reliance on government subsidies for facility expansion. The company's share price has declined 60% from its 2021 highs amid these challenges, attracting potential buyers despite the complexity of any potential deal structure. Successful execution would require navigating both regulatory approval and the practical difficulties of disaggregating Intel's deeply integrated design and manufacturing operations.

AMD is readying two important client segment processors powered by the next-generation "Zen 6" microarchitecture, according to a sensational new report by Moore's Law is Dead. These are the "Medusa Point" mobile processor, and the "Olympic Ridge" desktop. The former is a BGA roughly the size and Z-Height of the current "Strix Point," but the latter is being designed for the existing Socket AM5, making it the third (and probably final) microarchitecture to do so. If you recall, Socket AM4 served three generations of Zen, not counting the refreshed "Zen+." At the heart of the effort is a new CPU complex die (CCD) that AMD plans to use across its client and server lineup.

The "Zen 6" performance CCD is being designed for a 3 nm-class node, likely the TSMC N3E. This node promises a significant increase in transistor density, power, and clock speed improvements over the current TSMC N4P node being used to build the "Zen 5" CCD. Here's where it gets interesting. The CCD contains twelve full-sized "Zen 6" cores, marking the first increase in core-counts of AMD's performance cores since its very first "Zen" CCD. All 12 of these cores are part of a single CPU core complex (CCX), and share a common L3 cache. There could be a proportionate increase in cache size to 48 MB. AMD is also expected to improve the way the CCDs communicate with the I/O die and among each other.

Reports from Financial Times suggest Arm has plans to create its own CPU, set to hit the market in 2025 with Meta Platforms said to be one of the first customers. The chip is said to be a CPU for data center servers, with TSMC handling the manufacturing. However, when the Financial Times asked about this, SoftBank (the majority owner of Arm) and Meta stayed quiet, while Arm didn't give a statement. A Nikkei report from May 2024 suggested that a prototype AI processor chip would be completed by spring 2025 and available for sale by fall 2025, so the latest information from the Financial Times report feels like a confirmation of previous rumors.

Right now, Arm makes money by letting others use its instruction set and core designs to make their own chips. This new move could mean Arm will compete with its current customers. Sources in the industry say Arm is trying to win business from Qualcomm, with rumors that Arm has been bringing in executives from companies it works with to help develop this chip. While Qualcomm had talked in the past about giving Meta a data center CPU using Arm's design, it looks like Arm has won at least some of that deal. However, no technical or specification details are available currently for Arm's 1st in-house server CPU.

Qualcomm has announced its latest mid-range offering, dubbed the Snapdragon 6 Gen 4. Compared to its predecessor, the Snapdragon 6 Gen 3, the improvements on the CPU side are rather modest, with Qualcomm claiming an 11% improvement. The CPU, now based on TSMC N4, packs four ARMv9-based Cortex-A720 P-cores, along with four Cortex-A520 E-cores, making it an 8-core system as tradition. On the GPU side, however, a substantial 29% improvement has been asserted, although the specifics remain under wraps as of this writing.

The chipset can be paired with up to 16 GB of LPDDR5-3200 memory, and displays up to FHD+ at 144 Hz are supported. INT4 support is also present the new NPU, which should allow for decent on-device AI capabilities. Gaming performance should also witness a decent jump, thanks to the aforementioned GPU improvement, paired with Game Super Resolution (upscaling) and Frame Motion Engine (frame generation, every other frame). For connectivity, Wi-Fi 6E, Bluetooth 5.4, and 5G (mm Wave, sub-6 GHz) are present. Up to 200 MP single-camera systems are supported, with Snapdragon's LLV (Low Light Vision) technology, Of course, being a budget segment SoC, it would be futile to expect high-end photography capabilities. As for videography, 4k30 and 1080p120 are supported, along with HLG and HDR10.

TSMC has unveiled today its board meeting decisions, the chip giant has greenlit a massive US$17 billion investment to boost production capacity. According to TSMC, to meet long-term capacity plans based on market demand forecasts and TSMC's technology development roadmap, the board approved capital appropriations of approximately US$17.14 billion for installation and upgrade of advanced technology capacity, installation and upgrade of advanced packaging, mature and/or specialty technology capacity, fab construction, and installation of fab facility systems.

Previous reports by MoneyDJ suggested that TSMC might unveil plans for a third Arizona fab, a potential fourth fab, or its first advanced packaging plant after the board meeting. However, no updates have been confirmed yet. Industry sources suggested that TSMC's second Arizona fab, featuring 3 nm, will likely go ahead of schedule, providing a temporary response to U.S. pressures. According to the same report, TSMC's second Arizona fab is expected to begin equipment installation in mid-2026, with mass production expected by 2027. Notably, this progress would exceed TSMC's projections which expected the second plant to start 3 nm and 2 nm production in 2028, with a third plant potentially for the 2 nm process by the late 2030s. The MoneyDJ report further notes that initially, TSMC's second Arizona plant will offer 25K-30K 3 nm wafers per month. TSMC's first Arizona plant, initially slated for 2025, started 4 nm production ahead of schedule in Q4 2024.

TSMC is set to hold its inaugural board meeting on US soil on February 12—a strategic decision influenced by potential reciprocal tariffs outlined by the US President Donald Trump. As the company's first wafer fabrication facility in Arizona is in mass production using its 4 nm process, the US board meeting marks a first in TSMC's global expansion, where the company is holding a board meeting outside of Taiwan for the first time in its four-decade history. The board gathering, which will bring together directors from its Taiwan headquarters and overseas operational sites, comes amid concerns over possible US tariff measures targeting key trade partners, including Taiwan. Trump recently hinted at imposing tariffs on semiconductor products, which could directly affects TSMC's business operations.

Among the attendees will be Liu Jingqing, a director representing Taiwan's National Development Fund Management Committee, the company's largest shareholder holding 1.65 billion shares. Liu, who left for the United States on February 8, is expected to return to Taiwan immediately after the meeting, ensuring the board remains aligned with upcoming legislative sessions. During the meeting, the board will review the financial results for the fourth quarter and decide on cash dividends for 2024. Despite uncertainties over US tariffs, TSMC continues to expand its US investments. Its second and third fabs in Arizona, expected to employ more advanced processes such as 3 nm and 2 nm, show the company's long-term commitment to the American market while it continues advancing process and packaging capacity in Taiwan. TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei stressed that advancing mass production in Taiwan remains critical even while expanding US operations.

Going back a year, we started hearing about an OpenAI proprietary AI chip project—this (allegedly) highly ambitious endeavor included grand plans for a dedicated fabrication network. TSMC was reportedly in the equation, but indirectly laughed at the AI research organization's ardent requests. Fast-forward to the present day; OpenAI appears to be actively pursuing a proprietary GPU design through traditional means. A Reuters exclusive report points to 2025 being an important year for the company's aforementioned "in-house" AI chip—the publication believes that OpenAI's debut silicon design has reached the finalization stage. Insiders have divulged that the project is only months away from being submitted to TSMC for "taping out." The foundry's advanced 3-nanometer process technology is reported to be on the cards. A Reuters source reckons that the unnamed chip features: "a commonly used systolic array architecture with high-bandwidth memory (HBM)...and extensive networking capabilities."

Broadcom is reportedly assisting with the development of OpenAI's in-house design—we heard about rumored negotiations taking place last summer. Jim Keller's tempting offer—of creating an AI chip for less than $1 trillion—was ignored early last year; OpenAI has instead assembled its own internal team of industry veterans. The October 2024 news cycle posited that former Google TPU engineers were drafted in as team leaders, with a targeted mass production window scheduled for 2026. The latest Reuters news article reiterates this projected timeframe, albeit dependent on the initial tape going "smoothly." OpenAI's chip department has grown to around forty individuals with recent months, according to industry moles—a small number relative to the headcounts at "Google or Amazon's AI chip program."

Intel's upcoming "Nova Lake" desktop processors are taking shape slowly, featuring a three-tier core design that could reach 52 total cores. Set for 2026, the flagship SKU combines 16 "Coyote Cove" P-cores with 32 "Arctic Wolf" E-cores, supplemented by 4 LPE-cores for background task management. Intel is reportedly also considering 28-core (8P + 16E + 4LPE), and 16-core (4P + 8E + 4LPE) SKUs too. The architectural design choice centers on Intel's hybrid manufacturing approach, leveraging both its internal 14A node and TSMC's 2 nm process technology. This strategic decision addresses supply chain resilience while potentially enabling higher yields for critical compute tiles. Intel's interim co-CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus noted that Intel Foundry will need to earn Intel Product's trust with each new node, so if a node is not the best for their in-house IP, Intel will move to TSMC for production.

Initial engineering samples are already circulating among developers, according to shipping documentation from NBD, suggesting the validation phase is proceeding on schedule. Some specifications point to significant cache improvements, with documentation suggesting a 144 MB L3 cache implementation. However, the cache topology—whether unified or segmented—remains unspecified. The platform is expected to support PCIe Gen 6.0, though Intel has yet to confirm socket compatibility or memory specifications. However, we need to hold our expectations low. Previously unrealized configurations in Intel's roadmaps, like 40-core "Arrow Lake," never materialized, and instead, we got an eight-P-core version with 16 E-cores, totaling 24 cores. Final specifications may evolve as the platform progresses through development phases.

Apple's M4 SoC was released to overwhelmingly positive reviews, particularly regarding the commendable performance and efficiency benefits it brought to the table. The chip first appeared in the OLED iPad Pro lineup last May, arriving in the company's MacBook Pro lineup only much later, giving Intel's Lunar Lake and AMD's Strix Point a run for their money. Now, it appears that the company is cognizant of the heat brought by AMD's Strix Halo, and has already commenced mass production for the first SoC in the M5 family - the vanilla M5, according to Korean news outlet ET News.

Just like last time, the M5 SoC has been repeatedly rumored to first arrive in the next-generation iPad Pro, scheduled to enter production sometime in the second half of this year. The MacBook Pro will likely be next-in-line for the M5 treatment, followed the rest of the lineup as per tradition. Interestingly, although Apple decided against using TSMC's 2 nm process for this year's chips, the higher-tier variants, including the M5 Pro and M5 Max are expected to utilize TSMC's SoIC-mH technology, allowing for vertical stacking of chips that should ideally benefit thermals, and possibly even allow for better and larger GPUs thanks to the separation of the CPU and GPU portions. Consequently, yields will also improve, which will allow Apple to bring costs down.

AMD is set to share its fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, Feb. 4 facing opportunities and problems in the fast-changing AI chip market as investors are expected to look closely at AMD's AI strategy. Reuters reports that experts think AMD's revenue will increase by over 22% to $7.53 billion. They expect its data center part to make up more than half of total sales at $4.15 billion. Yet, investors still worry about how AMD stands in the AI race. TD Cowen experts and Omdia believe AMD could sell $10 billion worth of AI chips this year, this is twice what AMD itself thinks it will sell, which is $5 billion. However, the scene is getting more complex with Big Tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta making their own special chips for AI work. This move to custom chips, along with NVIDIA's strong market position and its popular CUDA software, makes things tough for AMD. The high costs of switching chipmakers also make it hard for AMD to grow its share of the market, however, the ongoing increase in AI spending by tech giants could help balance out these problems. Investors see "customer silicon and NVIDIA as the AI chip market going forward," said Ryuta Makino, analyst at AMD investor Gabelli Funds.

Supply chain issues make AMD's position more difficult as TSMC is boosting its advanced packaging ability to fix bottlenecks, while NVIDIA's production increase of its new "Blackwell" AI chips might restrict AMD's access to manufacturing resources. Yet, AMD's business has some good news, its personal computer unit should grow by almost 33% to $1.94 billion catching up to Intel.

Intel's freshly uploaded fourth-quarter 2024 "CEO/CFO earnings call comments" document has revealed grand CPU-related plans for 2025 and beyond. One of Team Blue's interim leaders—Michelle Johnston Holthaus—believes that "Nova Lake" processors (a next-generation client family) will arrive in 2026, following a comprehensive rollout of "Panther Lake" CPU products. This official timeline matches previously leaked and rumored development schedules—most notably, in a shipping manifest that was discovered last week. In recent times, industry watchdogs have linked "Nova Lake" to Intel's own 14A node and a TSMC 2 nm process node. Additionally, tipsters pointed to an apparent selection of Coyote Cove performance cores and Arctic Wolf efficiency-oriented cores.

Following yesterday's official announcements, a leaker shared several insights—theorized core configurations and manufacturing details were posted on the Hardware subreddit. Community members were engaged in a debate over Intel's "killing of Falcon Shore," but a plucky contributor—going under the moniker "Exist50"—redirected conversation to all-things "Nova Lake." They believe that Intel has shifted all "compute dies to TSMC" for manufacturing, after a change in plans—initial designs had the "8+16 die" on TSMC's N2P, and the "4+8 die on Intel 18A." Exist50 seemed to have inside track knowledge of product ranges: "Nova Lake (NVL) has a unified HUB/SoC die across mobile and desktop. So yeah, the baseline there is 4+8+4. But there's at least one more die for mobile." The flagship desktop (NVL-S or NVL-SK) chip's configuration could feature as many as sixteen performance cores and thirty-two efficiency cores, due to tile reuse—2x (8P+16E). Exist50 advised Intel CPU enthusiasts to forgo current generation offerings. "Nova Lake" should be: "quite a jump from Arrow Lake (ARL) in terms of MT performance, to say the least. I think anyone who buys ARL will end up regretting it, big time!"

The United States, currently led by the Trump administration, could be preparing a surprise package to its close silicon ally—Taiwan. During a House GOP issues conference in Florida, US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, including the world's leading silicon manufacturer, TSMC. Trump addressed the conference, saying, "In the very near future, we are going to be placing tariffs on foreign production of computer chips, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals to return production of these essential goods to the United States. They left us and went to Taiwan; we want them to come back. We do not want to give them billions of dollars like this ridiculous program that Biden has given everybody billions of dollars. They already have billions of dollars. […] They did not need money. They needed an incentive. And the incentive is going to be they [do not want to] pay a 25%, 50% or even a 100% tax."

The issue for TSMC is its massive reliance on US companies to drive revenue. The majority of its cutting-edge silicon is going to only a handful of companies, including Apple, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Broadcom. With tariffs, the supply chain economics, especially in the world of semiconductors, will break. TSMC's most significant export country is the US, and US companies with trillions of US Dollars of market capitalization rely on Taiwanese silicon. As a result, TSMC will most likely raise its wafer prices, with results trickling down to US companies raising their product prices with additional price hikes. TSMC plans to bring its advanced manufacturing on American soil, but given that these tariffs might break the economic model it currently operates under, it may need to happen sooner. Taiwan-based silicon giant has planned to leave US facilities trailing behind by a generation or two of advanced manufacturing, while domestic facilities produce the newest nodes. If Trump decides to go through tariffs, TSMC could make additional changes to its US-based manufacturing plans.

The DeepSeek open-source large language model from China has been the hottest topic in the AI industry over the weekend. The model promises a leap in performance over OpenAI and Meta, and can be accelerated by far less complex hardware. The AI enthusiast community has been able to get it to run on much less complex accelerators such as the M4 SoCs of Mac minis, and gaming GPUs. The model could cause companies to reassess their AI strategy completely, perhaps pulling them away from big cloud companies, toward local acceleration on cheaper hardware; and cloud companies themselves would want to reconsider their orders of AI GPUs in the short-to-medium term.

All this puts the supply chain of AI acceleration hardware in a bit of a spot. The NVIDIA stock is down 12 percent in pre-market trading as of this writing. Microsoft and Meta Platforms also faced a cut, shedding over 3% each. Alphabet lost 3% and Apple 1.5%. Microsoft, Meta and Apple are slated to post their quarterly earnings this week. Companies within NVIDIA's supply chain, such as ASML and TSMC, also saw drops, with ASML and ASM International losing 10-14% in European pre-trading.

Earlier this week, Taiwan experienced a magnitude 6.4 earthquake—this seismic event interrupted manufacturing activities at several TSMC chip-making facilities. As a precaution, foundry employees in both Central and Southern Taiwan were evacuated. Production resumed fairly quickly following inspections of crucial infrastructure—no major damage to facilities or equipment was noted. The latest reports suggest that a relatively minor number of TSMC wafers have been affected by the recent quake, while some recalibration of instrumentation is required to get things back on track.

Inside sources reckon that up to 20,000 wafers (possibly 10,000 at a minimum) could be scrapped—assessments are reportedly still underway, but a small proportion of client shipments could be disrupted. News articles point to this total being spread across three affected locations. Fab 18 is a key 3 nm production hub—situated in Taiwan's Southern Science Park, Tainan's Fab 14 specializes in 4 nm and 5 nm processes, and Fab 8 (Hsinchu) takes care of 200 nm. Industry experts believe that TSMC will bounce back quickly, and that the damaged wafer count represents a minor dent in the proverbial armor—on a good day, manufacturing output can reach up to 37,000 units.

In the early hours of Tuesday, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck near a remote mountainous region roughly 24 miles southeast of Chiayi in Taiwan, causing temporary operational halts at multiple TSMC facilities. The tremor occurred at 12:17 AM local time and was felt in Tainan, home to four of TSMC's manufacturing sites. Workers in both Central and Southern Taiwan were evacuated as a precaution, following standard company protocols designed to ensure employee safety. TSMC initiated thorough structural inspections immediately after the quake. According to company representatives, all crucial infrastructure, such as water supply and power systems, remained fully functional. With no significant damage detected during safety assessments, TSMC has gradually restarted its production lines, minimizing any long-term impact on its global client base.

Despite the relatively brief disruption, the incident exposes the fragility of the semiconductor manufacturing process. Taiwan's frequent seismic activity has the potential to affect the complex manufacturing processes crucial for producing silicon. Given the company's massive consumption of chemicals and silicon ingots, any significant production setbacks at TSMC can resonate through global supply chains. To reduce these geographical and nature-inspired risks, TSMC is investing heavily in new manufacturing facilities elsewhere, notably in Arizona. Although these sites are expected to enhance the company's resilience, they will only account for around 10% of TSMC's total production capacity. Additionally, as TSMC doesn't plan to bring state-of-the-art production to other sites, the company must implement safety features against earthquake protection in its Taiwan facilities to continue production. A minor manufacturing hiccup can equate to billions of losses across the supply chain.

C.C. Wei, TSMC CEO and Chairman, has shared his latest views regarding his company's North American manufacturing center—Reuters cornered him for comment during a mid-week appearance at a National Taiwan University-held event. The Taiwanese government has recently lowered its "silicon shield"—following much (reported) deliberation over "legal restrictions on transferring leading-edge process technology overseas." This relaxation of rules has TSMC considering a new set of investments for operations outside of Taiwan—with an expansion into advanced node process manufacturing. Currently, 2 nm (N2) is a home turf-speciality—industry experts estimate an expenditure of $28-30 (USD) billion to bring this production technology over to the States. TSMC's CEO has described additional challenges—on top of (and impacting) finances—local bureaucracy is a big one.

Wei stated: "every step requires a permit, and after the permit is approved, it takes at least twice as long as in Taiwan." According Reuters, he reckons that it would be difficult for their North American sites to access the latest technologies ahead of teams in Taiwan. He detailed his company's recruitment of several experts—tasked with talking to local government; about regulatory issues. This was not a cheap undertaking: "we ended up establishing 18,000 rules, which cost us $35 million." TSMC's Arizona production hub will (eventually) consist of three large factories—despite long-term teething problems, Fab 21 is reported to be churning out the first wave of "Made in America" product for a very important client: Apple. Wei expressed positives views when asked about the USA site's prospects—during an earnings conference (Jan 16)—he believes that it will eventually produce the "same quality of chips as in Taiwan," through a "smooth ramp-up process."

Samsung's native foundry operations have wrestled with the 3 nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) process—these problems have persisted since the first reports of "missed production targets" emerged late last year—online speculators floated a very disappointing yield figure: only 20%. Last December, industry moles proposed that the South Korean technology giant had devised plans to form an Exynos-centric "multi-channel partnership" with rival chipmakers. Speculation pointed to TSMC being the only valid ally. Semiconductor industry tipster—Jukanlosreve—believes that negotiations have taken place, and the answer was a firm "no." TSMC's most advanced node process order books are likely filled up with more important customers—industry watchdogs reckon that Apple usually gets first dibs.

Taiwan's top semiconductor manufacturer leads the market with its cutting-edge lithography techniques. Insiders believe that Samsung was impressed by TSMC's 2 nm trial production runs achieving (rumored) 60% yields. The higher-end Exynos chipsets are normally produced with the best node process available, but missed manufacturing goals have caused Samsung to drop in-house tech. In the recent past, Qualcomm's most powerful Snapdragon mobile chipsets have been deployed on flagship Galaxy S smartphones. Jukanlosreve believes that TSMC rejected Samsung's proposed Exynos deal due to a fear of revealing too many "trade secrets." Potentially, the South Koreans could have learned a thing or two about improving yields—courtesy of TSMC's expert knowledge.

TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today announced consolidated revenue of NT$868.46 billion, net income of NT$374.68 billion, and diluted earnings per share of NT$14.45 (US$2.24 per ADR unit) for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2024. Year-over-year, fourth quarter revenue increased 38.8% while net income and diluted EPS both increased 57.0%. Compared to third quarter 2024, fourth quarter results represented a 14.3% increase in revenue and a 15.2% increase in net income. All figures were prepared in accordance with TIFRS on a consolidated basis.

In US dollars, fourth quarter revenue was $26.88 billion, which increased 37.0% year-over-year and increased 14.4% from the previous quarter. Gross margin for the quarter was 59.0%, operating margin was 49.0%, and net profit margin was 43.1%. In the fourth quarter, shipments of 3-nanometer accounted for 26% of total wafer revenue; 5-nanometer accounted for 34%; 7-nanometer accounted for 14%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies, accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue.

The latest news reports suggest that Apple is currently verifying the quality of TSMC Arizona-made chips—the process has reached a "final test stage" with samples from an initial batch being compared to "Made in Taiwan" product. TSMC's native foundries—utilizing the latest cutting-edge technologies—are accustomed to pumping out plenty of high-quality and advanced chips. Nikkei Asia believes that an approval—if USA-made silicon passes muster—will result in commercial mass-produced chips being delivered as soon as Q1 2025. This would be a significant victory for TSMC's relatively new Arizona fab—reported teething problems have caused delays and budgets to balloon. Apple could be the first of TSMC's customers to send products to market that have Arizona-manufactured silicon onboard.

Taiwan's chip-making industry is facing an uncertain future due to regional political tensions—in reaction, the nation's government has started shifting its stance on guarding TSMC's most advanced production processes. Leading-edge process technologies could be heading overseas, with new investments being considered at the Arizona campus. TSMC and Amkor are working on setting up advanced packaging and test facilities at the Peoria location, so current logistics are not ideal—US-made product has to be sent to an Amkor packaging facility in Taiwan. TSMC USA's future looks quite promising—AMD and NVIDIA are reportedly the next in line to receive locally produced samples for verification. Industry moles reckon that Team Green's advanced "Blackwell" AI GPUs could be produced in Peoria—based on alleged partnership negotiations from late last year.