The United States has recently imposed several sanctions on technology exports to China. These sanctions are designed to restrict the transfer of specific technologies and sensitive information to Chinese entities, particularly those with ties to the Chinese military or government. The primary motivation behind these sanctions is to protect American national security interests, as well as to protect American companies from unfair competition. According to Financial Times, we have information that Chinese tech Giant, Alibaba, can not access Arm licenses for Neoverse V1 technology. Generally, the technology group where Neoverse V-series falls in is called Wassenaar -- multilateral export control regime (MECR) with 42 participating states. This agreement prohibits the sale of technology that could be used for military purposes.

The US argues that Arm's Neoverse V1 IP is not only a product from UK's Arm but a design made in the US as well, meaning that it is a US technology. Since Alibaba's T-Head group responsible for designing processors that go into Alibaba's cloud services can not use Neoverse V1, it has to look for alternative solutions. The Neoverse V1 and V2 can not be sold in China, while Neoverse N1 and N2 can. Alibaba's T-Head engineer argued, "We feel that the western world sees us as second-class people. They won't sell good products to us even if we have money."

The worldwide semiconductor industry is projected to invest more than $500 billion in 84 volume chipmaking facilities starting construction from 2021 to 2023, with segments including automotive and high-performance computing fueling the spending increases, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report. The projected growth in global factory count includes a record high 33 new semiconductor manufacturing facilities starting construction this year and 28 more in 2023.

"The latest SEMI World Fab Forecast update reflects the increasing strategic importance of semiconductors to countries and a wide array of industries worldwide," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "The report underscores the significant impact of government incentives in expanding production capacity and strengthening supply chains. With the bullish long-term outlook for the industry, rising investments in semiconductor manufacturing are critical to laying the groundwork for secular growth driven by a diverse range of emerging applications."

Currently, the US has an exclusion in place when it comes to import tariffs relating to graphics cards and GPUs imported from China, but the exclusion is set to expire on the 31st of December this year. So far, the US government has been quiet on whether or not the import tariff will be reinstated or not. If the tariff was to be reinstated, US consumers are looking at a 25 percent import duty on graphics cards, starting on the 1st of January, 2023.

There's no easy way to circumvent the tariff either, as it includes items like "printed circuit assemblies, constituting unfinished logic boards," according to Tom's Hardware. Not all graphics cards are made in China though, but the majority of graphics cards are today. It's possible that NVIDIA's move of its logistics center from Hong Kong to Taiwan could have some relation to this as well, as NVIDIA would then be shipping products out of Taiwan, rather than China, depending on how the US Customs classifies Hong Kong these days. We should know what happens in a month's time, but a 25 percent import duty on graphics cards will likely kill most sales, as most people already find them overpriced. This would of course affect AMD and NVIDIA, as well as their partners in the same way, unless they make their graphics cards outside of China.

TrendForce estimates that global shipments of VR devices will come to around 8.58 million units for 2022, showing a YoY drop of 5.3%. There are three notable factors behind the decline. First, the ongoing high inflation has been suppressing the consumer demand for end products this year. Second, VR brands have either opted to not release a new product this year or pushed back the schedule for releasing a new product. Lastly, the demand for Meta's Quest devices has been dampened by a significant pricing adjustment. As for 2023, TrendForce forecasts that global shipments of VR devices will bounce back to a total of 10.35 million units and show a YoY growth of 20.6%. New products including the Sony PS VR2 and the Meta Quest 3 are scheduled for release next year, so they are expected to be a significant demand driver.

Meta has been the most aggressive in committing resources into the VR/AR market. However, the effect of its attempt to offer hardware at a low price has been quite disproportionate to its massive investments in related technologies. Due to mounting cost pressure, Meta has adjusted its pricing strategy for Quest devices. The Meta Quest 2, in particular, is now priced at US$1,499, which is more than three times its previous price. On account of this price hike and its relatively short battery life, the Quest Pro will unlikely follow the footsteps of the Quest 2 with respect to maintaining a strong shipment growth momentum. TrendForce estimates that that shipments of the Quest Pro will reach just to the level of 250,000 units for 2022. Meta will have to wait until next year, when the Quest 3 hit the market, to again see a notable positive growth in its shipments of VR devices. TrendForce currently forecasts that Meta's shipments for 2023 will total around 7.25 million units.

During the Snapdragon Summit 2022, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. and Adobe announced an expanded collaboration to support creative experiences on Snapdragon powered devices across mobile, compute, and XR platforms. Together, the companies will push the boundaries of creativity and document productivity for Snapdragon users.

Building on the rich experiences already found with Adobe Photoshop and Adobe Lightroom for Windows on Snapdragon devices, Adobe remains committed to bringing the best of Creative Cloud natively to the Snapdragon platform, including Adobe Fresco and Adobe Acrobat. Bringing the strength of Adobe Sensei, Adobe's artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, alongside the dedicated on-device Qualcomm AI Engine on Snapdragon compute platforms, users can experience enhanced device performance for creative workflows and tasks including super-resolution, background removal and color enhancement, editing content on-the-go, and more.

In what can only be called an unusual move, several Chinese fabless chip makers—such as Alibaba and Biren Technology—who manufacturers at TSMC, are looking at running their chips slower. The reason for this is that they're trying to circumvent the US sanctions against Chinese chip makers. It should be noted that these are chips that have already taped out and gone into sample production, such as Biren's BR100 GPU.As reported earlier today, Alibaba even had one of its chips delisted from the official SPEC ranking, due to being unavailable and it's possible that it's one of the chips that's affected by the US sanctions.

Considering that the Chinese chip makers are dependent on the same cutting edge nodes at TSMC as the likes of Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm etc. it would potentially lead to more capacity for these companies at TSMC. According to the report by the Financial Times, Biren has had to stop shipments of its GPUs, as the company is going to have to prove that its chips don't violate the US export control restrictions. Apparently the rules to work out if a chip falls under the US sanctions or not are anything but clear. One metric is apparently based on the bidirectional transfer rate, which is capped at below 600 GB/s between chips, but the tricky part is that this metric can be calculated in several different ways. As such, Biren has dropped the transfer rate from 640 to 576 GB/s according to the Financial Times. The sanctions are likely to cause longer term concerns for TSMC as well, as the company is likely to lose several big customers for its cutting edge nodes, at least for the time being.

In September, we reported that Apple, the world's most valuable company, would source some of its 3D NAND flash chips from the Chinese Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC). However, according to the latest political pressure from the US government, Apple has reportedly canceled any contracts with the Chinese company and will not include their 3D NAND chips in the production of iPhones, iPads, and Mac computers. Even with YTMC's Xstacking 3.0 six-plane architecture that provides triple-level cell storage with I/O speeds of 2400 MT/s, Apple is not going to source any NAND Flash memory as US-China political relationship gets tighter regulations.

However, this could not be a deal breaker for both companies, as NAND Flash is in high demand, and new clients will emerge. As for Apple, the company has contracts with Kioxia, SK Hynix, Samsung, and possibly others that will ensure a steady supply of storage for the company's solutions.

Global fab equipment spending for front-end facilities is expected to increase approximately 9% year-over-year (YOY) to a new all-time high of US$99 billion in 2022, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report. The report also shows the global fab equipment industry increasing capacity this year and again in 2023. "After achieving a record level in 2022, the global fab equipment market is projected to remain healthy next year driven by new fabs and upgrade activity," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI President and CEO.

Taiwan is expected to lead fab equipment spending in 2022, increasing investments 47% YOY to US$30 billion, followed by Korea at US$22.2 billion, a 5.5% decline, and China at US$22 billion, a 11.7% drop from its peak last year. Europe/Mideast this year is forecast to log record high spending of US$6.6 billion, a 141% YOY surge this year though outlays remain comparatively smaller than in other regions. Strong demand for high-performance computing (HPC) advanced technologies is driving the region's jump in spending. The Americas and Southeast Asia are also expected to register record high investments in 2023.

The US Department of Commerce is in the process of increasing the stranglehold in tech exports directed to Chinese shores. The move is being made through the delivery of letters to US-based technology companies - namely KLA Corp, Lam Research Corp and Applied Materials Inc. - ordering them to stop the export of machines and equipment that can be used for sub-14 nm manufacturing. The move by the Department of Commerce only has validity for the companies that have been served by such a letter - at least until the Department codifies its newest regulations.

This means that only sellers with approved export licenses can keep doing business with Beijing, thus limiting the US companies China can work with as it aims to achieve at least a degree of self-sufficiency in the latest chipmaking tech. Perhaps the decision has come too late, however, as China's mainstay silicon manufacturing, SMIC, already manufactures chips at the 14 nm process (chips that have been deployed in China's Tinahu Light supercomputer already) and has even showcased manufacturing capability in the 7 nm field. It pays to remember that the US already had applied similar restrictions on equipment experts to China for the better part of two years - which apparently did little to stem China's capability to create increasingly denser semiconductor designs.

According to the latest TrendForce statistics, revenue of the top ten global IC design houses reached US$39.56 billion in 2Q22, growing 32% YoY. Growth was primarily driven by demand for data centers, networking, IoT, and high-end product portfolios. AMD achieved synergy through mergers and acquisitions. In addition to climbing to third place, the company also posted the highest annual revenue growth rate in 2Q22 at 70%.

Qualcomm continues in the No. 1 position worldwide, exhibiting growth in the mobile phone, RF front-end, automotive, and IoT sectors. Sales of mid/low-end mobile phone APs were weak but demand for high-end mobile phone APs was relatively stable. Company revenue reached US$9.38 billion, or 45% growth YoY. NVIDIA benefitted from expanded application of GPUs in data centers to expand this product category's revenue share past the 50% mark to 53.5%, making up for the 13% YoY slump in its game application business, bringing total revenue to US$7.09 billion, though annual growth rate slowed to 21%. AMD reorganized its business after the addition of Xilinx and Pensando. The company's embedded division revenue increased by 2,228% YoY. In addition, its data center department also made a considerable contribution. AMD posted revenue of US$6.55 billion, achieving 70% growth YoY, highest amongst the top ten. Broadcom's sales performance in semiconductor solutions remained solid and demand for cloud services, data centers, and networking is quite strong. The company's purchase order backlog is still increasing with 2Q22 revenue reaching US$6.49 billion, an annual growth rate of 31%.

According to TrendForce research, material supply improvement and spiking demand for enterprise SSDs from North American hyperscale data center and enterprise clients in 2Q22 coupled with the Kioxia contamination incident in 1Q22 prompted customers to ramp up procurement to avoid future supply shortages. Manufacturers also give priority to meeting the needs of server customers due to the high pricing of enterprise SSD. In the second quarter, overall revenue of the enterprise SSD market increased by 31.3% to US$7.32 billion.

As the market leader, Samsung has grown its enterprise SSD revenue to US$3.26 billion with the recovery of enterprise SSD procurement. Especially in the second quarter, when orders for other consumer products continued to decline, enterprise SSD became the company's outlet for reducing production capacity. At present, Samsung has been continuously investing in the development of next-generation transmission specification products such as the CXL 2.0 product released at the Flash Summit in early August, in order to maintain a leading position in the market.

ASUS today announced the MA-25 Coax-to-Ethernet MoCA Adapter, a device that uses pre-existing coaxial wiring in the home to provide wired and wireless internet connections that are fast, stable and protected. The adapter enables wiring normally set aside for cable TV to be leveraged to build a fast and reliable MoCA network in locations with thick walls and multiple floors that may affect the performance of a purely wireless network.

With the MA-25, users can enjoy up to 2.5 Gbps wired backhaul connections, with an easy band-mode switch to avoid signal interference with DOCSIS 3.1 cable modems. The MoCA Protected Setup (MPS) feature lets users securely add devices to the network with the press of one button, similarly to how WPS is used with wireless networks. Gamers may also find that a MoCA network delivers reduced latency, faster downloads and fewer lag spikes.

The Chinese technology giant, SMIC, has managed to advance its semiconductor manufacturing technology and shipped the first 7 nm silicon manufactured on China's soil. According to analyst firm TechInsights, who examined the 7 nm Bitcoin mining SoC made for MinerVa firm, there are doubts that SMIC 7 nm process is somewhat similar to TSMC's 7 nm process. Despite having no access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing tools, and US restrictions placed around it, SMIC has managed to produce what resembles an almost perfect 7 nm node. This could lead to a true 7 nm logic and memory bitcells sometimes in the future, as the node advances in SMIC's labs.

Having done an in-depth die analysis, the TechInsights report indicates that TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have a more advanced 7 nm node and are two nodes ahead of the Chinese SMIC. The results are not great regarding the economics and yield of this SMIC 7 nm process. While we have no specific data, the report indicates that the actual working chips made with older DUV tools are not perfect. This is not a problem for the Chinese market as it seeks independence from Western companies and technology. However, introducing a China-made 7 nm chip is more critical as it shows that the country can manufacture advanced nodes with restrictions and sanctions in place. The MinerVa SoC die and the PCB that houses those chips are pictured below.

Today ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2022 second-quarter results. Q2 net sales of €5.4 billion, gross margin of 49.1%, net income of €1.4 billion. Record quarterly net bookings in Q2 of €8.5 billion. ASML expects Q3 2022 net sales between €5.1 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 49% and 50%. Expected sales growth for the full year of around 10%.

The value of fast shipments*in 2022 leading to delayed revenue recognition into 2023 is expected to increase from around €1 billion to around €2.8 billion.
"Our second-quarter net sales came in at €5.4 billion with a gross margin of 49.1%. Demand from our customers remains very strong, as reflected by record net bookings in the second quarter of €8.5 billion, including €5.4 billion from 0.33 NA and 0.55 NA EUV systems as well as strong DUV bookings.

The recent semiconductor shortage has put an unprecedented amount of focus on the industry. Both commercial and government entities have come to recognize the lack of advanced node semiconductor manufacturing capabilities onshore in the United States. Intel Foundry Services (IFS) entry into the commercial foundry space is poised to change all that. As part of IFS Accelerator program, Intel recently announced their new IFS Cloud Alliance program, with Microsoft Azure as one of the inaugural members.

This is the latest chapter in a partnership between Intel and Microsoft that stretches back decades all the way back to the early days of the personal computer. In the last few years, Intel and Microsoft have collaborated on advancing semiconductor design on the cloud by working together to bring out EDA centric cloud compute such as the FX series on Azure, working with EDA vendors to enhance their software to better take advantage of the elasticity of the Azure cloud, as well as collaborating on a secure cloud-based semiconductor development platform for the US Department of Defense RAMP and RAMP-C programs.

Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs declined 15.3% year over year to 71.3 million units in the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22), according to preliminary results from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. This was the second consecutive quarter of lower shipments following two years of growth. The decline was worse than expected as supply and logistics further deteriorated due to the lockdowns in China and persistent macroeconomic headwinds.

"Fears over a recession continue to mount and weaken demand across segments," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Mobile Device trackers. "Consumer demand for PCs has weakened in the near term and is at risk of perishing in the long term as consumers become more cautious about their spending and once again grow accustomed to computing across device types such as phones and tablets. Meanwhile, commercial demand has been more robust although it has also declined as businesses delay purchases."

ASML is one of the critical semiconductors companies, as they provide tools for making actual silicon. Located in the Netherlands, they are famous for their DUV and EUV lithography tools, used to etch designs onto silicon wafers. According to the report from Bloomberg, the United States governing body is negotiating with the Dutch government to restrict the export of ASML's products to China. This came to affection following US Deputy Commerce Secretary Don Graves's visit to the Netherlands to discuss supply chain issues and meeting with ASML Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink. While these suggested export restrictions could be beneficial to the strategic placement of US against China, it would hurt ASML's revenue as sales in China accounted for a 16% share of the company's revenue in 2021.

It is recorded that the Chinese spending spree on tools has been the greatest among every country, lasting for two years in a row. By banning ASML from exporting its lithography tools to China, the US could theoretically halt Chinese plans for achieving the government's intended semiconductor independence. The talks with the Dutch government and ASML are still a work in progress, so we are yet to see if the deal is finalized. Additionally, it is worth pointing out that the major US semiconductor manufacturing tool makers like Applied Materials and Lam Research are already banned from exporting to China.

The Exascale supercomputing race is now well underway, as the US-based Frontier supercomputer got delivered, and now we wait to see the remaining systems join the race. Today, during 79th HPC User Forum at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Terri Quinn at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) delivered a few insights into what El Capitan exascale machine will look like. And it seems like the new powerhouse will be based on AMD's Instinct MI300 APU. LLNL targets peak performance of over two exaFLOPs and a sustained performance of more than one exaFLOP, under 40 megawatts of power. This should require a very dense and efficient computing solution, just like the MI300 APU is.

As a reminder, the AMD Instinct MI300 is an APU that combines Zen 4 x86-64 CPU cores, CDNA3 compute-oriented graphics, large cache structures, and HBM memory used as DRAM on a single package. This is achieved using a multi-chip module design with 2.5D and 3D chiplet integration using Infinity architecture. The system will essentially utilize thousands of these APUs to become one large Linux cluster. It is slated for installation in 2023, with an operating lifespan from 2024 to 2030.

After the EU lawmakers agreed on making USB Type-C the charging interface standard for the union, it appears US senators are considering something similar. Although it's early days at this point, with just a letter penned by a few democratic senators to the Secretary of Commerce, the route to implementation is likely to be a lot longer. The reasoning is very similar to the one from the EU lawmakers, namely to reduce e-waste and make life easier for consumers. The letter states that "the average consumer owns approximately three mobile phone chargers, and around 40 percent of consumers report that, on at least one occasion, they "could not charge their mobile phone because available chargers were incompatible.""

It goes on to say that innovation should benefit consumers rather than come at their expense, especially as consumers end up with a collection of incompatible chargers and connectivity cables. In reality things are a bit more complex, as so often is the case, but there's really no reason why more standardised chargers can't finally become the norm, with the computer and mobile industries largely pushing for USB Type-C as the common connector, with some exceptions. The extra incentive by regulation should help speed things up, but the USB standard isn't as straightforward as the politicians seem to think, which could cause some consumer complaints during the transition period. However, certified USB PD compliant devices should make everyone's life simpler in the long term. Time will tell if the Secretary of Commerce agrees with the senators and there's obviously no guarantee that USB Type-C will be the chosen standard, regardless of how likely it is.

Based on a report by the Nikkei, Japan and the US have joined forces to speed up the development of semiconductor production at 2 nm nodes in Japan by 2025. It's not exactly clear how this is going to happen, but the two nations are said to have signed a bilateral chip technology partnership. The heavy lifting is said to be done by private companies from both nations, but in terms of research and actual chip production. Part of the reason for the move, is that Japan wants to be able to manufacture cutting edge ICs domestically for next-generation chips.

The research is said to be kicking off as soon as this summer, although no decisions have been made with regards to the manufacturing structure, with the Nikkei suggesting two alternatives, based on information from the Japanese Ministry of Economy. There will either be a joint partnership between Japanese and US businesses, or it could be a wholly Japanese owned setup. It appears that one major reason for this project is the production of ICs for the Japanese defence industry, as advanced electronics are needed in a lot of related products, ranging from fighter jets and missiles, to radar systems and communication systems. However, the article also suggests that the 2 nm node is suitable for everything from components for quantum computers to smartphones. Japan already makes advanced silicon wafers and many other parts and components used in semiconductor manufacturing, but the nation has fallen behind in the actual manufacturing of leading edge semiconductors over the past few years.

Global fab equipment spending for front-end facilities is expected to increase 20% year-over-year (YOY) to an all-time high of US$109 billion in 2022, marking a third consecutive year of growth following a 42% surge in 2021, SEMI announced today in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report. Fab equipment investment in 2023 is expected to remain strong.

"The global semiconductor equipment industry remains on track to cross the $100 billion threshold for the first time as shown in our latest update of the World Fab Forecast,"said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. "This historic milestone puts an exclamation point on the current run of unprecedented industry growth."

In 2021 TSMC saw an increase in sales of 24.9 percent in monetary value, but for 2022, the company is expecting this figure to reach somewhere around the 30 percent mark. For this quarter alone, TSMC is expecting a revenue of somewhere between US$17.6 to US$18.2 billion, with a gross margin ending up as high as 58 percent. Despite the positive outlook, TSMC hasn't been doing well on the Taiwanese stock exchange this year, as the company has lost more than a tenth of its value in 2022.

That said, TSMC is pressing forward and will still be spending in excess of US$40 billion in 2023 to expand its production capacity, following the US$40 to US$44 billion it will invest this year. The company isn't overly concerned about inflation at this point in time either, saying it doesn't have a direct impact on the semiconductor industry. TSMC is seeing a slowdown in the consumer chip space, but it's seeing an uptick in business when it comes to EV related ICs. TSMC's production lines are at full utilisation for at least the rest of 2022, but most likely long into 2023.

As the world comes to grips with chip shortages due to supply chain disruptions and ripple-effects from the global pandemic, Intel's leaders are urging Congress to fund the CHIPS for America Act to create a more stable future for the U.S. tech industry.

In 1990, 80% of the world's semiconductors were produced in the U.S. and Europe. Today, 80% are produced in Asia, where countries provide substantial incentives to domestic semiconductor industries. This helps create a 30% to 50% cost disadvantage for companies that produce semiconductors in the U.S.
Increasing manufacturing in both the U.S. and the European Union is key to helping rebalance the global supply of chips. In February, EU President Ursula von der Leyen announced the European Chips Act, with the goal of doubling the EU's global semiconductor manufacturing share to 20% by 2030. It also provides for more R&D investments in disruptive technologies, supports small business and startups by attracting new talent to Europe for them, and focuses on building partnerships with like-minded countries to strengthen interdependencies.

According to TrendForce research, as manufacturers actively shifted production capacity to 128 layer products, the market turned to oversupply, resulting in a drop in contract prices in 1Q22, among which the decline in consumer-grade products was more pronounced. Although enterprise SSD purchase order volume has grown, demand for smart phone bits has weakened due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the traditional off-season, and rising inflation. Client inventories have increased significantly, so it remains challenging for overall bit shipment volume to offset potential decline. In 1Q22, NAND Flash bit shipments and average selling prices fell by 0.5% and 2.3%, respectively, resulting in a 3.0% quarterly decrease in overall industry revenue to US$17.92 billion.

Although China's smartphone stocking momentum was marginally weak considering the off-season, due to sluggish supply on the part of Kioxia and WDC, Samsung's 1Q22 client SSD shipment bit growth was driven up by an influx of rush orders and North American enterprise SSD client orders also recovered significantly in March. Overall bit shipments increased by 9% QoQ and ASP decreased by 2% QoQ. In 1Q22, the NAND Flash portion of Samsung's electronics business posted revenue of US$6.32 billion, up 3.4% QoQ.

MaxLinear, Inc. a leading provider of radio frequency (RF), analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits for broadband, connectivity, and infrastructure markets, and Silicon Motion, a global leader in NAND flash controllers for solid state storage devices, announced today that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which MaxLinear will acquire Silicon Motion in a cash and stock transaction that values the combined company at $8 billion in enterprise value. In the merger, each American Depositary Share (ADS) of Silicon Motion, which represents four ordinary shares of Silicon Motion, will receive $93.54 in cash and 0.388 shares of MaxLinear common stock, for total per ADS consideration of $114.34 (based on MaxLinear's May 4, 2022 closing price). The strategic business combination is anticipated to drive transformational scale, create a diversified technology portfolio, significantly expand the combined company's total addressable market, and create a highly profitable cash generating semiconductor leader.

Upon completion of the acquisition, the combined company will have a highly diversified technology platform with strong positions across the broadband, connectivity, infrastructure, and storage end markets. The combination of MaxLinear's RF, analog/mixed-signal, and processing capabilities with Silicon Motion's market leading NAND flash controller technology completes a total technology stack which fully captures end-to-end platform functionality and accelerates the company's expansion into enterprise, consumer, and many other adjacent growth markets. Combined revenues are expected to be more than $2 billion annually and are supported by the technology breadth to address a total market opportunity of roughly $15 billion.