Monday, March 11th 2019
Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019
Supplies of Intel processors will worsen in the second quarter of 2019 according to Taiwan-based industry observer DigiTimes. In a research-based report covering not just the DIY channel, but also the OEM channel focusing on notebook manufacturer, DigiTimes notes that heading into Q2, growth in demand for entry-level portables such as Chromebooks based on entry-level Intel processors, and mainstream notebooks powered by Core i3 processors, which make up the largest demographic of PC consumers in the market.
A pertinent concept to this report is supply-gap, the percentage difference between demand and supply. A positive supply-gap indicates demand exceeding supply and shortages. Leading notebook vendors HP, Dell, and Lenovo, reported supply-gaps of 5% going into Q3-2018, which severely impacted their bottom-lines. The companies waded through Q4 with 4-5%. DigiTimes reports that even Apple wasn't spared from shortages in "Amber Lake" processors. "In the first quarter of 2019, the Core i5 processors featuring Coffee Lake architecture are now having the worst supply shortfall. Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
Source:
DigiTimes
A pertinent concept to this report is supply-gap, the percentage difference between demand and supply. A positive supply-gap indicates demand exceeding supply and shortages. Leading notebook vendors HP, Dell, and Lenovo, reported supply-gaps of 5% going into Q3-2018, which severely impacted their bottom-lines. The companies waded through Q4 with 4-5%. DigiTimes reports that even Apple wasn't spared from shortages in "Amber Lake" processors. "In the first quarter of 2019, the Core i5 processors featuring Coffee Lake architecture are now having the worst supply shortfall. Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
72 Comments on Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019
Companies competition is none of my business as a consumer.
You have to consider how weak brand AMD has right now. How unknown are the products.
Even people on this forum are confused. Just look around. People (even die hard AMD fans) are mixing Zen and Ryzen generations all the time. :-)
A typical PC buyer knows that i7 CPU is better than i5, which is better than i3. That's all they need. And you can't really say they're loyal to the Intel brand, when it's the only CPU brand they know. CPU == Intel.
BTW:
Companies analyze something called price elasticity of demand (a derivative of demand in respect of price). In other words: what happens to sales if you raise or lower the price.
And they really know this pretty well. If Intel raises prices, it means they're earning more. No other reason.
"Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
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Also, Intel's consumer lineup has grown a lot more complicated (in terms of manufacturing) due to recent competition. As recently as 7th-gen, every single desktop chip (and a lot of mobile ones) were based on the exact same silicon, just binned heavily. A 2c2t Celeron and a 4c8t i7-7700K were both simply different bins of the same silicon, as that was cheap, easy, had high yields, and dies were small enough for there to be plenty per wafer. Now, thanks to dramatically increased die sizes, that's not a feasible production plan any longer, forcing Intel to prioritize between high-end (6c or 8c) dice vs. low-end desktop/mobile (4c and lower). A single wafer can't provide the entire product stack any more - which means that they have to choose, which again affects output. Prioritizing the high end cuts production for low-end chips, but also overall output as there are fewer dice per wafer. The opposite cuts margins, as high-end products have higher margins. And so on.
As for Intel doing this on purpose - I wouldn't really put it past them given their history of illegal and anti-competitive business practices, but it seems unlikely. While taping out a chipset die on an older process could feasibly be done as "proof" for not having enough capacity, it's a very expensive endeavor. Not to mention that Intel is obligated to inform shareholders of production issues and fab output as well as sales data, making it very difficult for them to lie about this - after all, it wouldn't take a genius to compare the two to see if they're holding back stock or running fabs below capacity during this shortage. Fab output is a known number, as is dies per wafer, and sales.
I personally know guys that won't even touch an AMD and a few that are the same about Intel, I mean it doesn't entirely make sense but it's real.
As for reviews I rarely pay any attention to those myself, they do have their uses if there are questions to be asked but normally when I do a build I already know what I want. AMD is not weak, anything that's gaining market share as they are doing isn't weak by any means because you can't do that if you're weak. As for the only brand they know, I can assure you unless they've been under a rock all this time they have heard about AMD, esp as of late.
AMD CPU's are a known quantity and it's well known they've been kicking Intel's backside with Ryzen. If talking about AMD's GPU lineup that's a different thing I'll admit but even Nvidia isn't exactly doing "Great" right now. I'm aware of how companies do these things and have been around those involved with boardroom meetings and the like..... They do as you say and more, and I mean much more.
I've even been involved a few times in how things are done in this way so it's not like I haven't been there because I have.
When it comes down to it, the shareholder is the ultimate goal; That is to keep them happy no matter what, above and beyond all else and that (Unfortunately) for some does equal doing things they shoudn't and will do just that to satisfy that end.
For that they HAVE to upgrade on a yearly cycle atm If they stick to intel, or their security or performance will be compromised going forward, many will stay with their alleged safe bet company they dealt with already for year's rather than change to amd and some couldn't anyway.
As for the shortage two years running ,wtaf intel ,you cant compete in any way on value as it is.
At this rate they're passing sales to Amd.
Actually...... This is the purpose of a company, of any company you could put a name to.
The other things mentioned in your post are HOW they go about doing this. The purpose of an enterprise is indeed to make things that are of value that's of use and you are correct with that but even this still doesn't overrride the basics of it having to be profitable or there's no point of even being in business in the first place.
You can't make at least a little profit, you get 0 return period and all it means with 0 return is while the cost of making something gets covered well..... That's it.
If you owned a company you have to make sure everyone gets paid for what they do.
All the materials used and consumed in the process of making these products is covered, the very tools and machinery used are paid for and maintained/repaired/replaced as needed, energy required to do the job, sortation of product, retrieval of product from being warehoused and paying those that retrieve the product for sorting along with the equipment they use along with upkeep on all that equipment, transportation costs from manufacturing plant to distribution..... The list goes on and on.
And all that doesn't even counting costs to the facility (Building) itself to even be there, whether it's being built or maintained over time along with taxes on the facility, equipment, inventory and other various expenses too.
All that equals the same basics - You don't make enough profit, you're just done and the shareholders on top of ALL THAT expect to get something in return for their investment so yes - The shareholders are the thing because it's their money that pays for it all and they have expenses of their own too.
There was a philosophy that assumed companies are there to provide goods. There was a philosophy that assumed profit is immoral. And so on.
Today we believe a company is meant to make a profit. This is what shareholders expect. This is also what the government expects. Profit is the driver, making a product someone needs is a way of getting the profit.
Profit describes the ultimate target of business activity and balances all other aspects (like boosting sales and cutting costs). If you think financial industry produces nothing, you clearly don't understand economy very well. And the products of this industry in particular. But this is not a place and I won't go further unless asked (an I can give simple examples that prove you're wrong).
Speaking of shareholders, They don't contribute anything to the process, only the $$ to do it with. However profit is the reason because it's already understood that costs paid out to do business comes from revenue itself - Doing it all at cost is pointless, you must have profit on top of your revenue for it to be worth doing.
Cost and all else doesn't matter, flatly covering all the bills for the enterprise alone just won't cut it, you have to make a little on top.
Honestly - We may have different ways of viewing it and that's OK, I don't expect everyone to agree with me on everything, that in itself would be foolish.
Not going to argue about it either :toast:, I'm not part of Intel or the CEO of any company to even worry about it all.
And BTW, all this is headed a little off topic but still relevant to it.
All I can add is in the case of Intel, the shortage would be a reason to want more per chip if the demand is there and probrably will be. Doesn' t mean things woudn't change because they always do, just hope their customers (You) won't get the shaft because of it.
see
www.google.co.uk/search?q=how+many+intel+security+issues+now&oq=how+many+intel+security+issues+now&aqs=chrome..69i57.9597j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
business users need security
they'll need to swap chips for security
that's a sale to intel in a lot of cases
all these security issues happened in the last two years since rowhammer
intel is now unable to meet demand
in bullet points it's hardly f*****g rocket science is it
<ON TOPIC and it doesnt need a page of hyperbole ,bullshit or personal financial guidance and lifestyle corrections based on your blinded to others perspective(biased).
I think the same problems persist with your major OEMs though. They usually put less effort into AMD machines they sell than they do the Intel ones—like shipping AMD machines with single channel memory or only offering low density batteries or sub-par displays. I don’t know how AMD can overcome this, or if maybe Intel’s contract indirectly encourages it. There was a history of that.
It's like the time when Apple was the only smartphone maker in town, except in the PC world time has stagnated virtually for a decade - in part due to AMD's own incompetence!
Then you go explaining to people what's a GPU & some of the reactions are :D
The short of it: people are fully capable of believing horribly harmful and bad things, and the idea that business exists to "produce profit" is one of these ideas, particularly when taken as literally as it is in current US law. There is no "balancing" of "aspects" when the only motive for shareholders is maximising short-term profits - and stockholders are almost universally in it for the short term, as that's how you make a profit in the stock market. As for the financial industry, they provide two valuable services: loans and safe handling of people's money. Other than that - and the vast majority of their business - they're mainly looking to find ever-increasingly complex ways to bet, gamble, sell and lend other people's money to other people with the same interests with the ultimate goal of creating more money than there was in the first place, which is where the fictionalization of value comes into play. But you're right - this isn't the place, but feel free to DM me if you like. Absolutely agree on that - healthy and civilized discussion is how we all learn and grow :) I have to point out one key disagreement, though (sorry, but I have to!): doing it all at cost is not pointless at all, as "at cost" obviously wages for every single person employed in the company. In other words, everyone actually involved in the labor of producing the product is being rewarded if a business is run at cost. It also includes paying off loans (i.e. external financing) and agreed-upon returns on direct investments in the company (but not shareholder payouts, which are AFAIK based on profits, partially due to most shareholders not actually having ever invested money in the company, just traded other shareholders money for stocks), so even those "behind the scenes" are rewarded fairly if a business runs at cost. This is of course complicated by the need to save up for future R&D and similar long-term/future investments, but in general, a business run "at cost" can do just fine - the main problem today is that running "at cost" would cause your shareholders to freak out and flee en masse, causing stock prices to plummet and the "value" of your company to be dramatically diminished, despite nothing actually changing. This is the nature of capitalism being based on the logical fallacy of eternal growth - that if growth stops, people panic. But again, as above - I agree this isn't the place, though it's absolutely an interesting discussion :) This is definitely a point - Intel has a massive mindshare advantage, for a whole host of reasons. Part of it is Intel's long-term performance dominance (and AMD's failed gamble with the heavy machinery architecture series), partly it's due to establishing themselves as a dominant market actor through illegal business practices, partly it's because of people generally not giving enough of a damn about the components that make up their "boxes". Who among us knows who made the ABS system in our cars, as long as they work? The issue is that AMD has a (rather sticky) reputation as "the cheap brand" or possibly "the slow but cheap brand", the latter of which isn't true any more, but that doesn't really matter when they start off at a (large) disadvantage - and Intel knows to capitalize on this in a whole host of ways. Intel's massive cash hoard and advertising subsidies to OEMs don't exactly hurt them either. And if people believe (whether it's true or not) that Intel is the only high-performance alternative, they'll pay and/or wait for the opportunity to buy Intel unless they're thoroughly convinced otherwise - which isn't easy.
It's simple, they couldn't do anything about it. The manufacturing side of their business has grown too large and it's starting to become unsustainable. There used to be a time when designing your chips was the biggest hurdle and the silicon itself was relatively cheap and plentiful given the size of the market. But times changed, foundries are becoming the biggest money pits in the industry, this is the price you need to pay for being a leading IC manufacturer.
The reality is that no one else tries to do what Intel does on this scale and we are now finding out why.