Tuesday, September 7th 2021
Intel CEO Predicts Chips Will Cost 20% of Future Cars' Bill of Materials by 2030
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger predicts that chips and semiconductors will make up as much of the car's bill-of-materials (BOM) as the engine (or main propulsion) itself. This change will happen as early as in 2030, said Gelsinger, speaking at a keynote address, at the IAA Mobility 2021 show in Munich. Gelsinger's prediction is backed by internal research conducted by Roland Berger, and McKinsey.
As of 2019, chips barely made 4% of a vehicle's BOM, confining mainly to the ECU and an optional infotainment system. By 2030, electronics will take over a more complex set of roles, including full automation, and AI that can drive anywhere. A fully automated vehicle, or AV, will be next big thing in personal transport. Gelsinger predicts a $115 billion TAM (total addressable market) size for automobile semiconductors by the end of the decade.
As of 2019, chips barely made 4% of a vehicle's BOM, confining mainly to the ECU and an optional infotainment system. By 2030, electronics will take over a more complex set of roles, including full automation, and AI that can drive anywhere. A fully automated vehicle, or AV, will be next big thing in personal transport. Gelsinger predicts a $115 billion TAM (total addressable market) size for automobile semiconductors by the end of the decade.
73 Comments on Intel CEO Predicts Chips Will Cost 20% of Future Cars' Bill of Materials by 2030
I responded to someone asking for cheap, basic cars. It has been tried and only worked in dictatorships. Just look at the Yugo sales in the US market. Where were all the people that wanted cheap, basic cars then?
People do not want cheap basic vehicles, the buy them because they have a limited budget.
I also don't remember Tesla being the benchmark for luxury cars.
Looking at the local car market here, the sales of luxury cars is up massively since the pandemic started, most of them being higher-end models from European brands. Admittedly Toyota is the biggest selling brand locally, but that's hardly unique and I wouldn't say they make simple and basic cars, outside of a couple of models. One of the most popular models is the Corolla Cross hybrid.
Yes, there's some hubris in the car market when it comes to technology right now, especially as car makers are trying to find alternative means of revenue, such as various paid for software related services, be it for assisted/automatic driving or something else.
I'm also not sure how it's possible to make a simple and basic electrical car, as they need a lot of technology or there simply won't function. See above.
Also, almost all cars are going automatic in some way, so it's time to give up on the antiquated manual gearboxes, they don't really offer any benefits, except a feeling good factor. And yes, I know how to drive a manual car, on both the right and wrong side of the road...
She told me she was reading up on how police may, in the near future, utilize an EMP-like device to disable cars. I told her that's why she should look into getting an older vehicle, something from the 50s or 60s that she likes. Then she wouldn't have to worry about police being able to disable her car with the EMP device......she just looked at me, rolled her eyes and walked away.
Anyway, I never really looked into it before, but I did find this article from 2014 about a possible EMP-like device for police.
Of course in Pat's reality this is different because he can now sell inferior nodes to car manufacturers.
Reading this thread is like reading from who is who from the boomer generation. Smart cars are what the consumers want.
Similarly... adaptive cruise control. VW basically made it unusable because when camera detects an 80 km/h sign for another road next to mine, the ACC hard brakes to meet that limit. So you're driving the 100 you're supposed to on cruise, a sign appears, boom, you're creating an unexpected behavior, automated. It also keeps so much distance (even on the shortest setting) to the car ahead of yourself that overtaking with it is pretty much impossible, even if the car can accelerate pretty fast, it does it so gradually someone else is keen to jump right in front of you and stop you from going past. It gets even better if you're driving the allowed 130km/h on the same road in the evening. 50km/h of hard braking just like that. The first time I thought I had someone under the vehicle.
Basically if you're not practically asleep behind the wheel and prefer to drive faster than 80 or 100km/h you're leaving those systems disabled. Yay for technology and supposed safety when the measures used are so annoying you don't want them. Luckily the other automated features don't interfere. At the same time, these systems are supposed to work as they do :D Its not going to get better.
As for people wanting more than basic cars, I think you're right. It appears a majority is actually happy with lazy careless driving because they get more time to look at their phone. We're lazy, irresponsible assholes it seems and cars cater to it. Yeah having had my share of cars from 17 year old Mitsubishi Colt to a new Peugeot 108, then 208 and then to the ID3 I have now, I can only support this statement. Even with the status symbol thing discarded for good measure... the extra features are useful and bonus, but there is a limit to it, for me, and some things are crossing the line too. Another category of features is just things you need to get used to because they're different.
The Peugot 108 was a 'basic modern car'... the epitome of basic and cheap today, the seat was made of iron, the audio sounded worse than from a laptop, and the display to use it was unreachable from the driver's seat without leaning far forward, denying safe drive. Also, the dashboard was digital, offering a fuel meter consisting of FOUR fat blocks that would vanish as the tank emptied itself... The first block would be gone straight after driving away from the gas station... the second would vanish shortly after, and then the third would remain lit for ages, until you find the last block behaves as the first did... and then you get the light saying to fill up.
The 208... being Peugeot... 100% plastic of course, but the dashboard also had chromed (Plastic) elements that would handily be positioned such that any sun reflection would bounce of straight into your face. That's luxury! But the audio was still shit. Basically you get 2 extra doors in the back and an engine that can actually overtake trucks, unlike the 108 where you'd dial back to 4th gear to reach 100 at full throttle... And both cars actually felt like they had to be driven with some care, not exactly fixed & steady on the road as you'd like them to be.
So yeah. Happy camper with my non basic car right now, that actually has a design that works interior and exterior, decent audio, and some form of QoL inside it... and driving it at 160km/h feels just as stable as driving 40.
Toyota got popular not because it was lower end or not standing out or cheap. It got popular because it pioneered Hybrid and low-speed electric drive, and produces highly reliable vehicles, quickly fighting itself to the 'peace of mind / quality perception' of German car manufacturers... even though I see Volkswagens left and right with floor plates hanging loose under a Polo or Golf, and in my direct environment we had an Audi soft top with no end to its problems, some utterly retarded :p
Basically the Corolla sells because it gets you that Toyota brand image at a sub-Toyota price point. It remains to be seen if its the better car. What that underlines is: people want the best they can get for the lowest amount of money. But they do want the best.
Also... luxury is most definitely equal to more tech. Non luxury variants have you open stuff yourself, luxury variants automate them, like your mirrors, the boot, windows... this has been a thing since the first electric window. Connectivity... having a QI charger next to you or not... 2x USB C... that is not tech? The fact even cheap infotainment now has bluetooth trickled down to it doesn't change that...
Not a company I would buy a product from, that's for sure.
I would also say that Tesla is only really considered a benchmark for technology in cars outside of the US. Yes, they've pushed the electrification of cars, no doubt about that, but the rest of their technology is pretty dull imho. They should focus more on the quality of their vehicles.
What gadgets would you like to do away with? I like most of the "gadgets" in my car, such as power steering, ABS breaks, airbags, hill start assist (I live up quite a steep mountain), collision mitigation braking systems, AC, reversing camera etc. I could do away with the crappy integrated "entertainment" system, but that's only an issue locally, since other countries seem to get much better solutions.
A lot of them makes it easier and safer to drive. Don't really care about lane keeping assist, tried using that on a rental car a few years ago, didn't make sense to me. I rarely use the cruise control, but I bet few americans would want to lose that. I like the paddle shifters, even though I mostly use them to engine break, but it's something you can't do with a traditional automatic car. I've actually grown quite fond of the keyless entry as well, since I only have to touch the door handle to unlock the car.
So I for one, wouldn't really want a simple car, as all these features make for a safer, better or more practical vehicle. In fact, the car I learnt to drive in didn't have power steering and was of course a manual, it was a pita to drive in comparison. At least it had a synchronised clutch, but I'm sure someone at some point in time called that a "gadget" too.
I haven't driven the Corolla Cross, but considering it's a hybrid, it has plenty tech just to keep the hybrid bit working, no?
It seems to come with all the normal modcons that you'd expect for a car in its price class, plus a few more thrown in for good measure, in fact, it seems to come with quite a lot of tech as standard.
I do agree that there are a few things that have dubious worth, but I also think it depends where you live. Cruise control is one of those things I rarely use, mostly due to the terrible flow of traffic here, but what you describe is just insane. No way of turning off the speed limit detection feature? It would seem like it would cause accidents if it works like how you describe it and it's clearly way too immature to use in a production vehicle if it behaves like that.
Again, I believe a lot of technology in cars were developed for the US market, if I may be so blunt, where you have wide, fairly straight and long roads in a lot of places where there's next to nothing around it and where people fall asleep driving, because it's so dull. It actually gets tiring driving in a straight line for too long and that's where I see a lot of this tech being useful. However, if you live in the countryside in Europe or some other countries, it's pretty pointless.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Corolla_Cross
The one thing that really gets me with modern cars is that there's no proper place to put your phone in most of them.
Sure, there's the few with Qi chargers and the ones that have good enough "infotainment" systems that allows you to use your phone with them, but the phone still tends to end up in a cup holder somehow...
I can in earnest say I have zero use for the seven cup holders in our car. I don't drink hot beverages in the car and at most there'll be a bottle of water in the car. No-one except you would buy a car like that today.
People don't want hand cranked windows or hand cranks to start the engine...
You make a good point about it all being relative with your synchro example. Here I am wishing for car tech to go back to what it was in the '00s, when in reality there was probably a crowd back then who thought that the cars were too advanced.
I guess I'm just paranoid of cars becoming so computerized that they will be hacked. Hopefully the auto makers won't make it that easy.
This is more a proof of concept
www.caranddriver.com/news/a34762383/tesla-model-x-hack-steal/
But this apparently happened. It did require access to a broken Tesla in the first place though...
It was an issue for many car brands back in the days as well and yes, it is a security risk. I'm sure there was a movie some years ago where they stole cars by order duplicate remote key fobs or something like that. Luckily I live on an island and car thefts are not a big crime concern here.
Just as with anything else technology related, it comes down to not cutting corners, allowing for firmware/software updates and making sure to keep up to date with security issues that are being discovered. It's impossible to keep up with hackers, but it's at least possible to offer regular updates, something most router companies for example, do not.
Oh and we have a Honda HR-V by the way, far from a luxury car, but a fairly well specced car for the money, even though it comes with less gadgets here compared to most western countries.
I think with cars, a lot of people are a bit "stuck" in the era of their first few cars and anything beyond that is just not needed. I do see your point though, as a lot of things aren't "needed" but they sure do make life easier at times. Oh, one "gadget" I forgot about is tyre pressure sensors, which you have to have by law in a lot of countries now. Seems to cause more hassle than anything else, as we've had a couple of false positives, but when a tire was actually pierced, nothing happened... Some kind person left a screw, pointy end up, under one of our tires as the Costco car park...
We will give you ai that's as thick as your phone but actually in charge of you, life and death style though, noice.
Can we say no thanks please?!.
so Intel recently lifted the load off they're 14nm lines, finally and now think all car chip's are going to cost more in the future hmnn I mean it is simple maths.
Things that are safety related and I would not want to miss - 1, Daytime running light. This safety feature can significant number of head on collisions. 2) integrated and programmable garage opener. I don't want to carry a remote that can be lost or stolen. 3) backup cameras. Most new cars come with this major safety feature now, and you would be pretty stupid not to want it. Also, imagine you are parked in next to a large SUV or truck at the supermarket. Wouldn't it be much safer with a camera that can show or alert you on incoming traffic as you slowly back out of the spot? I have witnessed my fair share of near collision, only to be avoided when I braked for the other vehicle. Not the other driver is a bad person, but the driver literally could not see. 4) Integrated Google map or GPS. The list goes on. There are many pros that I would rather not put on a tinfoil hat and be scared of the big government. Think of airbags, anti-lock brakes, daytime running light, etc. A detection of impaired driving would be a big welcome by me. Insurance companies such as Progressive already has program to allow reduced insurance premium based on the miles driven.
These features will be driven by the consumers, like it or not, and majority, probably 80% or more of the people, prefer to have these modern "gadgets" or niceties or safety features.
www.tomsguide.com/us/keyless-entry-car-hack,news-25022.html
Also you know as much as I do we have full control over what happens with our data and IT. We know this stuff, man!
www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4280386