Friday, July 1st 2022
NVIDIA to Cut Down TSMC 5nm Orders with the Crypto Gravy Train Derailed, AMD Could Benefit
NVIDIA is reportedly looking to reduce orders for 5 nm wafers from TSMC as it anticipates a significant drop in demand from both gamers and crypto-currency miners. Miners are flooding the market with used GeForce RTX 30-series graphics cards, which gamers are all too happy to buy, affecting NVIDIA's sales to both segments of the market. Before the crypto-currency crash of Q1-2022, NVIDIA had projected good sales of its next-generation GeForce GPUs, and prospectively placed orders for a large allocation of 5 nm wafers from TSMC. The company had switched back over to TSMC from Samsung, which makes 8 nm GPUs from the RTX 30-series.
With NVIDIA changing its mind on 5 nm orders, it is at the mercy of TSMC, which has made those allocations (and now faces a loss). It's incumbent on NVIDIA to find a replacement customer for the 5 nm volumes it wants to back out from. Chiakokhua (aka Retired Engineer), interpreted a DigiTimes article originally written in Chinese, which says that NVIDIA has made pre-payments to TSMC for its 5 nm allocation, and now wants to withdraw from some of it. TSMC is unwilling to budge—it could at best hold off shipments by a quarter to Q1-2023, allowing NVIDIA to get the market to digest inventory of 8 nm GPUs; and NVIDIA is responsible for finding replacement customers for the cancelled allocation.
The same article paints a different picture for AMD: the company has reduced orders for 7 nm and 6 nm nodes; but its 5 nm orders are unaffected. AMD makes not its its next-generation RDNA3 GPUs on 5 nm, but also its next-generation "Zen 4" CPU chiplets. Any drop in demand for GPU silicon would be internally adjusted by increasing "Zen 4" chiplet orders. AMD's growth as a processor manufacturer is no longer bottlenecked by technology-leadership, but by volumes. The company could jump at the prospect of higher 5 nm allocation, as it would enable it to increase output of "Zen 4" processors to meet rising demand of high-margin server processors with its upcoming EPYC "Genoa" and "Bergamo" processors.
Source:
Chiakokhua (Twitter)
With NVIDIA changing its mind on 5 nm orders, it is at the mercy of TSMC, which has made those allocations (and now faces a loss). It's incumbent on NVIDIA to find a replacement customer for the 5 nm volumes it wants to back out from. Chiakokhua (aka Retired Engineer), interpreted a DigiTimes article originally written in Chinese, which says that NVIDIA has made pre-payments to TSMC for its 5 nm allocation, and now wants to withdraw from some of it. TSMC is unwilling to budge—it could at best hold off shipments by a quarter to Q1-2023, allowing NVIDIA to get the market to digest inventory of 8 nm GPUs; and NVIDIA is responsible for finding replacement customers for the cancelled allocation.
85 Comments on NVIDIA to Cut Down TSMC 5nm Orders with the Crypto Gravy Train Derailed, AMD Could Benefit
AMD has been the technology leader since Zen in 2017 and TSMC - intel's problems with 10nm and the 14nm products era.
and now have various options:
a. buy miners nvidia or amd card and go to hell nvidia and amd
b. buy intel and go to hell nvidia and amd
c. dont buy anything and all scumbags companies go to hell
the vengeance is a dish serves cold :pimp:
:)
It's whole situation in Ukraine fault! :rockout:
GTX 1060/6=980, RTX 2060= GTX1080, well 3060 was a 2070, 960=770 replacement but still, 4060=3070Ti or 3080/12, in either case $329 would be a steal and a major incentive to wait, I can wait almost a year, yeah next july morning here we go.
I remember GTX 780 Ti going for $700 in 2013 and one year later in 2014 a GTX 970 shows up at $350 providing 95% level of performance, even with the 3.5+0,5 fiasco. SO I'm not buying any of this. unless it's on 50% MSRP, heavily discounted. I'm talking 3080/10 at the price of 3050, because 8nm also consumes more power, and this adds hidden cost over time +100 Watts on the power bill is quite something to be felt.
But they late to the party, and the demand for more GPU's right now is declining.
If i was nvidia i'd do the same. it's a company that thrives for (more) profit and to keep stakeholders "happy".
If I were Tsmc , after Nvidia blaming them for issues before running off to Samsung, then running straight back and trying to hardball they're leverage via cash , I would definitely be pointing at contracts, held up high pointing with one middle finger.
and with arc gpus them need agressive prices to entry in market because them have problems with performance and some bugs but in my case use linux mainly and intel gpu drivers on linux normally are better than windows drivers without forget need another gpu player for try change actual situation
:)
Not really a problem, I'm happy to keep my money until the mid range returns to the $200-300 range.
And of course that MSRP will be just slightly inflated compared to previous generation (it's new tech, it must cost more).
And of course we're not talking about launch prices of Nvidia Ampere, $699 RTX 3080, no way, that should be deleted from records...
And when there won't be enough cards in the channels, FE will be almost non existent, and retailers will be free to shape their prices (mining or no mining) everyone will play dumb. "It's the new economy." "It's the disrupted channels of world trade." "It's still the efect of Covid lock-downs."...
Watch your sit:
nVidia just wants to limit supply to keep prices high, based on this and the fact that their main competitor seems to be their own previous generation I'd hazard a guess that Ada will be noticeably faster and disproportionally more expensive.