Monday, December 5th 2022
AMD Still Believes in Moore's Law, Unlike NVIDIA
Back in September, NVIDIA's Jensen Huang said that Moore's Law is dead, but it seems like AMD disagrees with NVIDIA, at least for now. According to an interview with AMD's CTO, Mark Papermaster, AMD still believes that Moore's Law will be alive for another six to eight years. However, AMD no longer believes that transistor density can be doubled every 18 to 24 months, while remaining in the same cost envelope. "I can see exciting new transistor technology for the next - as far as you can really plot these things out - about six to eight years, and it's very, very clear to me the advances that we're going to make to keep improving the transistor technology, but they're more expensive," Papermaster said.
AMD believes we'll see a change in how chips are being designed and put together, with chiplets being the future of semiconductors. Papermaster calls this "a Moore's Law equivalent, meaning that you continue to really double that capability every 18 to 24 months" although it's not exactly Moore's Law in the traditional sense. AMD also appears to be betting heavily on FPGA technology in some of its market segments, for something the company calls adaptive computing. As to how things will play out, time will tell, but with both AMD and Intel going down the chiplet route, albeit in slightly different ways, we should continue to see new innovations from both companies, with or without Moore's Law.
Source:
The Register
AMD believes we'll see a change in how chips are being designed and put together, with chiplets being the future of semiconductors. Papermaster calls this "a Moore's Law equivalent, meaning that you continue to really double that capability every 18 to 24 months" although it's not exactly Moore's Law in the traditional sense. AMD also appears to be betting heavily on FPGA technology in some of its market segments, for something the company calls adaptive computing. As to how things will play out, time will tell, but with both AMD and Intel going down the chiplet route, albeit in slightly different ways, we should continue to see new innovations from both companies, with or without Moore's Law.
42 Comments on AMD Still Believes in Moore's Law, Unlike NVIDIA
Even if by some miracle we are able to get down to etching at angstrom-level (1Å = 0.1nm), silicon atoms are 2Å wide and it is quite literally impossible to etch anything smaller than an atom.
Table 1 – Intel process node comparison
2020, RTX 3080 - $700
2022, RTX 4080 - $1200 <- WE ARE HERE
2024, RTX 5080 - $2040
2026, RTX 6080 - $3468
2028, RTX 7080 - $5896
2030, RTX 8080 - $10022
2032, RTX 9080 - $17038
2034, GTX 1080 - $28965
599 for top
499 for cut-down
399 for mid-high-end
249 for mid-range
119 for low-end and entry
You don't get these prices with 20,000$ N4 or N5 wafers on super mature, high-yield process.
I think have read about that material some month ago but there is other candidate too. It's like car actually. We are going to the limit of what we were used to use for making chip/power car and now we have to find alternative ressources or a new way on how to continue with the old material.