Getting sacked over what will be undoubtedly delays because of red tape and difficulty finding people is kinda very dumb.

no one can get Around that pile of *****

kondaminGetting sacked over what will be undoubtedly delays because of red tape and difficulty finding people is kinda very dumb.

no one can get Around that pile of *****

Mark Lui hand quite a bit of say on to build there, if red tape and the local labor market doesn't align that's sorta on your own poor planning.

semanticsMark Lui hand quite a bit of say on to build there, if red tape and the local labor market doesn't align that's sorta on your own poor planning.

The moment government is involved you can plan your part like the mechanics of a Rolex and still get screwed over.
request something from your local council to find out.

Yeah... They've never thought it's a good idea:

www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/technology/tsmc-arizona-factory-tensions.html

www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/semiconductors-straight-talk-from-the-former-head-of-tsmc/

For what it's worth, I kind of agree that the odds of China launching an invasion of Taiwan is quite low... But not impossible. Taiwan would certainly be defended by the US and allies, despite the supposed ambiguity. Japan probably gets drawn in to it... Which would be the biggest concern... Don't want to wake that Dragon up.

The best thing to do, would be to end the Chinese civil war, which is technically still going on with China seeing Taiwan as a renegade part of its territory. Not sure how the US or other countries can do that, there is probably a deal to be done, by this or a future US administration.

Typo in the title:

Chariman.

mb194dcFor what it's worth, I kind of agree that the odds of China launching an invasion of Taiwan is quite low... But not impossible. Taiwan would certainly be defended by the US and allies, despite the supposed ambiguity.

The predominant opinion I hear from "experts" is that China will invade Taiwan within the next 10 years which might sound like a lot of time but it's not, considering how long it takes to get a fab operational.

Personally, I think TSMC alone is keeping China out. With how much of the global chip production is concentrated on Taiwan the main deterrent for China is how many powerful nations they'd antagonize if they take a bite. Given enough time to disperse manufacturing and you'll get another Ukraine situation but with chips instead of grain: China will invade, other nations will send aid (and nothing more), prices will rise for a while and then it will become the new normal.

well, live long and prosper, Mark Liu…
“the US is a great place to live, but i would not want to work there” seems to have proven itself, caused you to retire.

One has to be absolutely delusional to think that anyone in TSMC cares about that fab. They gonna use the US government subsidies to fund and build it, and that's all. TSMC and Taiwan are not that stupid to sell their IP and know-how for free to the US and grow their competition there. It is not in the strategic interest of Taiwan either, if the West build their own semiconductor industry and capacities, no weapon aid and Taiwan is left alone against China. Intel is doing the same and the fundamental investments are happening abroad /Israel as usual/.

Ad China attacking Taiwan, the chance of that happening is 0,000001% but the West is working hard to make it happen, that is the point of the weapon aid for Taiwan, to radicalize the relations between the countries and make China snap. And no, no one is going to help them directly nor fight for them, Taiwan and its citizens will be used as a good pretext for sanctions against China to economically contain it. That's what the game is about. Sacrificing innocent country and people for the higher "good".

mb194dcThe best thing to do, would be to end the Chinese civil war, which is technically still going on with China seeing Taiwan as a renegade part of its territory. Not sure how the US or other countries can do that, there is probably a deal to be done, by this or a future US administration.

Technically correct but calling it a civil war is a bit weird. Either way, this has nothing to do with any outside country and the only "deal" possible is when the CCP collapses on itself and China democratizes it self, until then there's nothing to be done, much less now after Taiwan saw what happened with hong kong.

Taiwan has always been happy keeping the status quo and China knows it doesn't have much of a choice in the short term. It's a very unstable situation but it's the only one possible sadly.

AGlezBThe predominant opinion I hear from "experts" is that China will invade Taiwan within the next 10 years which might sound like a lot of time but it's not, considering how long it takes to get a fab operational.

There's a lot pointing towards that but China has a lot too loose, not only is Taiwan difficult to take (pretty bad place to do a water landing and they already failed at it before), China is on the brink of a demographic crisis. Several analists point towards Taiwan being more usefull for China as is now - something they can use for nationalistic propaganda, the goal of reunification - then if they spend what's necessary to take it back - which would give them a ruined island, there's no taking it without destroying most of it.

trsttteThere's a lot pointing towards that but China has a lot too loose, not only is Taiwan difficult to take (pretty bad place to do a water landing and they already failed at it before), China is on the brink of a demographic crisis. Several analists point towards Taiwan being more usefull for China as is now - something they can use for nationalistic propaganda, the goal of reunification - then if they spend what's necessary to take it back - which would give them a ruined island, there's no taking it without destroying most of it.

Having an external enemy to boost unity blame it for all you problems is one of the oldest tricks in the book and one that has been used by every group of every size, governments included, since the begining of civilized society. That said, China doesn't need Taiwan for that because they already have the "capitalist pigs that endanger our way of life and impose economic sanctions on our people" which is a far greater and easier threat to perceive for the average chinese citizen.

Also, China has been making a lot of progress in chip design and manufacture so given enought time they'll be able to raze Taiwan to the ground and still call it a win. At that point they'll be able to take of their gloves and just bomb the crap out of it before landing their troops. And yes, Taiwan is not an easy geography to invade but that only matters if you can't throw a million troops at the problem. China will make a lot of mistakes along the way a loose some 200k troops but that won't matter and will instead produce some valuable results for them:

1. They'll absorb most of the manufacturing business. Chips will still be needed and they'll be positioned to supply them and at a lower cost. This is the same thing that's been happening with every other type of comodity, just add chips to the list. It will take a few years but it will happen.
2. Major boost to national pride and trust in the Party.
3. Their surviving troops will gain a lot of experience. All 2+ million of them not counting reserves, militias, etc. They'll learn from their mistakes and improve their tactics and systems. Also, a major morale boost for the troops.
4. Partially solve the population issue. Sending you extra mouths to the wild to die is also a very old trick.

I know it's a grim prospect but that's what I think is going to happen unless every other major power in the world is set on Taiwan staying independent and that hinges on TSMC keeping their fabs there.

Few years down the road, they likely will thank him for not wasting time building new fabs in times where demand is cratering. What’s driving demand is only AI hardware, which will not sustain in my opinion. One of the driver for red hot AI hardware demand comes from China that’s hoarding them knowing that US will clamp down hard. Now that the sanctions are imposed, let’s see how much longer will this red hot demand last. And to be honest, it’s not like he needs money since TSMC have making a lot of money for many years now, and I am pretty sure he gets paid really well.

AGlezBThe predominant opinion I hear from "experts" is that China will invade Taiwan within the next 10 years which might sound like a lot of time but it's not, considering how long it takes to get a fab operational.

China will likely invade Taiwan before the DDG(X) next-generation US Destroyer is mass produced... or never invade at all.

Its a tall order for China to attack Taiwan IMO, but possible. However, that "difficult" job becomes damn-near impossible when US Stealth Destroyers with future-tech come into play in the next decade (estimated: 2034 or so). China's best chance is to attack before we upgrade our ships.

If we can delay China more than 10 years, then they attack when we are strongest and that will play to our favor. (Or more likely: their Admirals will call off the attack once we demonstrate next-generation ship capabilities). The main issue is that the USA is relatively weak for the 2020-2029 decade. China has new ships (in particular, Stealth Destroyers of their own), while we in the USA have the bulk of our Navy as 1980s-era Arleigh Burk Destroyers and 1990s-era Ticonderoga Cruisers.

----------

My hope is that China decides against it and peace continues. But the difficult part of this wait is that the USA vulnerability is clear and publicly known.

At a minimum, China will want to pretend its invading Taiwan, if only to maximize their political soft-power / negotiations around the world. So we don't actually know if this is all bluffs, bluster, or whatever. But there's serious preparations to at least make it look like they're attacking Taiwan.

Whether they actually do is anyone's guess. But why guess? We should just prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Part of that preparation is getting this damn Arizona fab actually up and operational. We need to bridge the gap until DDG(X) are built at least.