The Biden administration is set to announce new, targeted restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, focusing primarily on emerging chip manufacturing equipment companies rather than broad industry-wide limitations. According to Bloomberg, these new restrictions are supposed to take effect on Monday. The new rules will specifically target two manufacturing facilities owned by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) and will add select companies to the US Entity List, restricting their access to American technology. However, most of Huawei's suppliers can continue their operations, suggesting a more mild strategy. The restrictions will focus on over 100 emerging Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers, many of which receive government funding. These companies are developing tools intended to replace those currently supplied by industry leaders such as ASML, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron.

The moderated approach comes after significant lobbying efforts from American semiconductor companies, who argued that stricter restrictions could disadvantage them against international competitors. Major firms like Applied Materials, KLA, and Lam Research voiced concerns about losing market share to companies in Japan and the Netherlands, where similar but less stringent export controls are in place. Notably, Japanese companies like SUMCO are already seeing the revenue impacts of Chinese independence. Lastly, the restrictions will have a limited effect on China's memory chip sector. The new measures will not directly affect ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a significant Chinese DRAM manufacturer capable of producing high-bandwidth memory for AI applications.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), one of the leading semiconductor foundries in the world, today announced its consolidated results of operations for the three months ended September 30, 2024.

Third Quarter 2024 Highlights

• Revenue was $2,171.2 million in 3Q24, compared to $1,901.3 million in 2Q24, and $1,620.6 million in 3Q23.
• Gross profit was $444.2 million in 3Q24, compared to $265.1 million in 2Q24, and $321.6 million in 3Q23.
• Gross margin was 20.5% in 3Q24, compared to 13.9% in 2Q24 and 19.8% in 3Q23.

GlobalFoundries faces a $500,000 fine from the US Commerce Department for breaching export controls by shipping $17.1 million worth of chips to SJ Semiconductor (SJS), a blacklisted Chinese firm affiliated with Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). The company made 74 unauthorized shipments between February 2021 and October 2022, delivering nearly 5,700 wafers. The chipmaker attributed the violation to a data entry error in its Oracle trade management system, where SJS was incorrectly recorded under a direct customer's shipping details. While SJS had previously handled GlobalFoundries' chips as a third-party assembly provider, both SJS and SMIC were placed on the Entity List in 2020 due to suspected military ties.

GlobalFoundries received a significantly reduced fine due to its voluntary disclosure and cooperation avoiding a potential fine of up to $34.2 million. "GlobalFoundries' voluntary self-disclosure (VSD) and extensive cooperation throughout the investigation resulted in a significant reduction in the monetary penalty, which is the main incentive of our VSD policies," said John Sonderman, director of the Office of Export Enforcement (OEE) within the Commerce Department. The incident comes as the company anticipates $1.5 billion in CHIPS Act funding for manufacturing expansion. For comparison, the department previously fined Seagate $300 million in April 2023 for shipping $1.1 billion worth of drives to Huawei.

Huawei has reportedly started shipping its Ascend 910C accelerator—the company's domestic alternative to NVIDIA's H100 accelerator for AI training and inference. As the report from China South Morning Post notes, Huawei is shipping samples of its accelerator to large NVIDIA customers. This includes companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, which have ordered massive amounts of NVIDIA accelerators. However, Huawei is on track to deliver 70,000 chips, potentially worth $2 billion. With NVIDIA working on a B20 accelerator SKU that complies with US government export regulations, the Huawei Ascend 910C accelerator could potentially outperform NVIDIA's B20 processor, per some analyst expectations.

If the Ascend 910C receives positive results from Chinese tech giants, it could be the start of Huawei's expansion into data center accelerators, once hindered by the company's ability to manufacture advanced chips. Now, with foundries like SMIC printing 7 nm designs and possibly 5 nm coming soon, Huawei will leverage this technology to satisfy the domestic demand for more AI processing power. Competing on a global scale, though, remains a challenge. Companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel have access to advanced nodes, which gives their AI accelerators more efficiency and performance.

When NVIDIA started preparing the H20 GPU for China, the company anticipated great demand from sanction-obeying GPUs. However, we now know precisely what the company makes from its Chinese venture: an astonishing $12 billion in take-home revenue. Due to the massive demand for NVIDIA GPUs, Chinese AI research labs are acquiring as many as they can get their hands on. According to a report from Financial Times, citing SemiAnalysis as its source, NVIDIA will sell over one million H20 GPUs in China. This number far outweighs the number of home-grown Huawei Ascend 910B accelerators that the Chinese companies plan to source, with numbers being "only" 550,000 Ascend 910B chips. While we don't know if Chinese semiconductor makers like SMIC are capable of producing more chips or if the demand isn't as high, we know why NVIDIA H20 chips are the primary target.

The Huawei Ascend 910B features Total Processing Performance (TPP), a metric developed by US Govt. to track GPU performance measuring TeraFLOPS times bit-length of over 5,000, while the NVIDIA H20 comes to 2,368 TPP, which is half of the Huawei accelerator. That is the performance on paper, where SemiAnalysis notes that the real-world performance is actually ahead for the H20 GPU due to better memory configuration of the GPU, including higher HBM3 memory bandwidth. All of this proves to be a better alternative than Ascend 910B accelerator, accounting for an estimate of over one million GPUs shipped this year in China. With an average price of $12,000 per NVIDIA H20 GPU, China's $12 billion revenue will undoubtedly help raise NVIDIA's 2024 profits even further.

According to sources familiar with the matter and reported by Bloomberg, the Biden administration is considering imposing further export controls to limit China's ability to acquire advanced semiconductor technologies crucial for developing AI systems. Gate-all-around (GAA) transistor technology and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips are at the center of the proposed restrictions. These cutting-edge components play a pivotal role in creating powerful AI accelerators. GAA transistors, a key feature in next-generation chips, promise substantial improvements in power efficiency and processing speeds. Meanwhile, HBM chips enable high-speed data transfer between a processor and memory. While existing sanctions prevent American firms from supplying Chinese companies with equipment for manufacturing leading-edge chips, concerns persist that China could still attain advanced capabilities through other means.

For instance, China's leading chipmaker, SMIC, could potentially integrate GAA transistors into its existing 7 nm process node, markedly enhancing performance. Access to HBM would further augment China's ability to develop AI accelerators on par with cutting-edge offerings from US firms. The reflections within the Biden administration show a strategic effort to preserve America's technological edge by denying China access to key semiconductor innovations. However, implementing such stringent export controls is a delicate balancing act, as it risks heightening tensions and prompting Chinese retaliation. No final decision has been made, and officials continue weighing the proposed restrictions' pros and cons. Nonetheless, the discussions highlight the pivotal role that semiconductor technology plays in the great power rivalry between the US and China, especially in the AI era.

Beijing has doubled down on its push for semiconductor self-sufficiency with the establishment of a new $47.5 billion investment fund to accelerate growth in the domestic chip sector. The fund, officially registered on May 24th under the name "China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III", represents the largest of three state-backed vehicles aimed at cultivating China's semiconductor capabilities. The announcement comes as tensions over advanced chip technology continue to escalate between the U.S. and China. Over the past couple years, Washington has steadily ratcheted up export controls on semiconductors to Beijing over national security concerns about potential military applications. These measures have lent new urgency to China's quest for self-sufficiency in chip design and manufacturing.

With a war chest of 344 billion yuan ($47.5 billion), the "Big Fund" dwarfs the combined capital of the first two semiconductor investment vehicles launched in 2014 and 2019. Officials have outlined a multipronged strategy targeting key bottlenecks, focusing on equipment for chip fabrication plants. The fund has bankrolled major projects such as flash memory maker Yangtze Memory Technologies and leading foundries like SMIC and Huahong. China's homegrown chip industry still needs to catch up to global leaders like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC. However, the immense scale of state-directed capital illustrates Beijing's unwavering commitment to developing a self-reliant supply chain for semiconductors—a technology viewed as indispensable for economic and military competitiveness. News of the "Big Fund" sent Chinese chip stocks surging over 3% on hopes of fresh financing tailwinds.

According to Bloomberg's latest investigation, Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) have submitted patents on the self-aligned quadruple patterning (SAQP) pattern etching technique to enable SMIC to achieve 5 nm semiconductor production. The two Chinese giants have been working with the Deep Ultra Violet (DUV) machinery to develop a pattern etching technique allowing SMIC to produce a node compliant with the US exporting rules while maintaining the density improvements from the previously announced 7 nm node. In the 7 nm process, SMIC most likely used self-aligned dual patterning (SADP) with DUV tools, but for the increased density of the 5 nm node, a doubling to SAQP is required. In semiconductor manufacturing, lithography tools take multiple turns to etch the design of the silicon wafer.

Especially with smaller nodes getting ever-increasing density requirements, it is becoming challenging to etch sub-10 nm designs using DUV tools. That is where Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) tools from ASML come into play. With EUV, the wavelengths of the lithography printers are 14 times smaller than DUV, at only 13.5 nm, compared to 193 nm of ArF immersion DUV systems. This means that without EUV, SMIC has to look into alternatives like SAQP to increase the density of its nodes and, as a result, include more complications and possibly lower yields. As an example, Intel tried to use SAQP in its first 10 nm nodes to reduce reliance on EUV, which resulted in a series of delays and complications, eventually pushing Intel into EUV. While Huawei and SMIC may develop a more efficient solution for SAQP, the use of EUV is imminent as the regular DUV can not keep up with the increasing density of semiconductor nodes. Given that ASML can't ship its EUV machinery to China, Huawei is supposedly developing its own EUV machines, but will likely take a few more years to show.

The latest TrendForce report reveals a notable 7.9% jump in 4Q23 revenue for the world's top ten semiconductor foundries, reaching $30.49 billion. This growth is primarily driven by sustained demand for smartphone components, such as mid and low-end smartphone APs and peripheral PMICs. The launch season for Apple's latest devices also significantly contributed, fueling shipments for the A17 chipset and associated peripheral ICs, including OLED DDIs, CIS, and PMICs. TSMC's premium 3 nm process notably enhanced its revenue contribution, pushing its global market share past the 60% threshold this quarter.

TrendForce remarks that 2023 was a challenging year for foundries, marked by high inventory levels across the supply chain, a weak global economy, and a slow recovery in the Chinese market. These factors led to a downward cycle in the industry, with the top ten foundries experiencing a 13.6% annual drop as revenue reached just $111.54 billion. Nevertheless, 2024 promises a brighter outlook, with AI-driven demand expected to boost annual revenue by 12% to $125.24 billion. TSMC, benefiting from steady advanced process orders, is poised to far exceed the industry average in growth.

SMIC, China's largest semiconductor manufacturer, is reportedly assembling a dedicated team to develop 3 nm semiconductor node technology, following reports of the company setting up 5 nm chip production for Huawei later this year. This move is part of SMIC's efforts to achieve independence from foreign companies and reduce its reliance on US technology. According to a report from Joongang, SMIC's initial goal is to commence operations of its 5 nm production line, which will mass-produce Huawei chipsets for various products, including AI silicon. However, SMIC is already looking beyond the 5 nm node. The company has assembled an internal research and development team to begin work on the next-generation 3 nm node.

The Chinese manufacturer is expected to accomplish this using existing DUV machinery, as ASML, the sole supplier of advanced EUV technology, is prohibited from providing equipment to Chinese companies due to US restrictions. It is reported that one of the biggest challenges facing SMIC is the potential for low yields and high production costs. The company is seeking substantial subsidies from the Chinese government to overcome these obstacles. Receiving government subsidies will be crucial for SMIC, especially considering that its 5 nm chips are expected to be up to 50 percent more expensive than TSMC's due to the use of older DUV equipment. The first 3 nm wafers from SMIC are not expected to roll out for several years, as the company will prioritize the commercialization of Huawei's 5 nm chips. This ambitious undertaking by SMIC represents a significant challenge for the company as it strives to reduce its dependence on foreign semiconductor technology and establish itself as an essential player in the global manufacturing industry.

Huawei's new server CPU based on the HiSilicon Taishan V120 core has shown impressive single-threaded performance that matches AMD's Zen 3 architecture in a leaked Geekbench 6 benchmark. The Taishan V120 is likely being manufactured on SMIC's 7 nm process node. The Geekbench 6 result posted on social media does not identify the exact Huawei server CPU model, but speculation points to it being the upcoming Kunpeng 930 chip. In the benchmark, the Taishan V120 CPU operating at 2.9 GHz scored 1527 in the single-core test. This positions it nearly equal to AMD's EPYC 7413 server CPU based on the Zen 3 architecture, which boosts up to 3.6 GHz and which scored 1538 points. It also matches the single-threaded performance of Intel's Coffee Lake-based Xeon E-2136 from 2018, even though that Intel chip can reach 4.5 GHz boost speeds, scoring 1553 points.

The Taishan V120 core first appeared in Huawei's Kirin 9000 smartphone SoC in 2020. Using the core in server CPUs would allow Huawei to achieve competitive single-threaded performance to rival AMD's last-generation EPYC Milan and Intel's older Skylake server chips. Multi-threaded benchmarks will be required to gauge the Kunpeng 930's overall performance fully when it launches. Huawei continues innovating its ARM-based server CPU designs even while facing restrictions on manufacturing and selling chips internationally due to its inclusion on the US Entity List in 2019. The impressive single-threaded results versus leading x86 competitors demonstrate Huawei's resilience and self-reliance in developing homegrown data center technology through its HiSilicon division. More details on the Kunpeng 930 server chip will likely surface later this year, along with server configurations from Chinese OEMs.

China's homegrown Loongson 3A6000 CPU shows promise but still needs to catch up AMD and Intel's latest offerings in real-world performance. According to benchmarks by Chinese tech reviewer Geekerwan, the 3A6000 has instructions per clock (IPC) on par with AMD's Zen 4 architecture and Intel's Raptor Lake. Using the SPEC CPU 2017 processor benchmark, Geekerwan has clocked all the CPUs at 2.5 GHs to compare the raw benchmark results to Zen 4 and Intel's Raptor Lake (Raptor Cove) processors. As a result, the Loongson 3A6000 seemingly matches the latest designs by AMD and Intel in integer results, with integer IPC measured at 4.8, while Zen 4 and Raptor Cove have 5.0 and 4.9, respectively. The floating point performance is still lagging behind a lot, though. This demonstrates that Loongson's CPU design can catching up to global leaders, but still needs further development, especially for floating point arithmetic.

However, the 3A6000 is held back by low clock speeds and limited core counts. With a maximum boost speed of just 2.5 GHz across four CPU cores, the 3A6000 cannot compete with flagship chips like AMD's 16-core Ryzen 9 7950X running at 5.7 GHz. While the 3A6000's IPC is impressive, its raw computing power is a fraction of that of leading x86 CPUs. Loongson must improve manufacturing process technology to increase clock speeds, core counts, and cache size. The 3A6000's strengths highlight Loongson's ambitions: an in-house LoongArch ISA design fabricated on 12 nm achieves competitive IPC to state-of-the-art x86 chips built on more advanced TSMC 5 nm and Intel 7 nm nodes. This shows the potential behind Loongson's engineering. Reports suggest that next-generation Loongson 3A7000 CPUs will use SMIC 7 nm, allowing higher clocks and more cores to better harness the architecture's potential. So, we expect the next generation to set a bar for China's homegrown CPU performance.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) posted better than expected fourth quarter 2023 financial tallies, but issued a warning with a downward revisement of near future gross margin expectations. According to DigiTimes Asia and TrendForce, China's leading pure-play semiconductor foundry has experienced an overall decline in net profit due to various cited factors including: "the industry downturn, weak market demand, high industry inventory, and fierce competition among peers, all contributing to reduced capacity utilization and decreased wafer shipment for the group." The DigiTimes report focuses mainly on a significant SMIC shares plunge—stock prices are reported to have dropped by ~20% in early 2024, indicating a loss of confidence in the foundry's prospects.

TrendForce laid out the financial nitty gritty: "SMIC International saw a revenue increase of over 3.5% to more than USD 1.678 billion, marking the only quarter of revenue growth last year. Net profit plummeted by 54.7% to nearly USD 175 million. The gross margin of 16.4% was almost halved compared to the same period in 2022 and experienced a significant decline from the previous three quarters, reaching its lowest point of the year. In the full year of 2023, SMIC International experienced a revenue decline of over 13% to USD 6.3 billion, with a net profit decrease of 50.4% to USD 900 million. The gross margin was approximately halved to 19.3%." Many industry watchdogs believed that SMIC was in a comfortable position, thanks to an uptick in demand for natively developed AI GPUs—their flagship Shanghai plants are reportedly churning out 7 nm wafers for Huawei's Ascend 910B model. Insiders also claim that high profile smartphone clients are pushing for 5 nm production lines—a significant challenge for the foundry's existing collection of (less than cutting-edge) equipment.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) is preparing new semiconductor production lines at its Shanghai facilities according to a fresh Reuters report—China's largest contract chip maker is linked to next generation Huawei SoC designs, possibly 5 nm-based Kirin models. SMIC's newest Shanghai wafer fabrication site was an expensive endeavor—involving a $8.8 billion investment—but their flagship lines face a very challenging scenario with new phases of mass production. Huawei, a key customer, is expected to "upgrade" to a 5 nm process for new chip designs—their current flagship, Kirin 9000S, is based on a SMIC 7 nm node. Reuter's industry sources believe that the foundry's current stable of "U.S. and Dutch-made equipment" will be deployed to "produce 5-nanometer chips."

Revised trade rulings have prevented ASML shipping advanced DUV machinery to mainland China manufacturing sites—SMIC workers have reportedly already repurposed the existing inventory of lithography equipment for next-gen pursuits. Burn Lin (ex-TSMC), a renowned "chip guru," believes that it is possible to mass produce 5 nm product on slightly antiquated gear (previously used for 7 nm)—but the main caveats being increased expense and low yields. According to a DigiTimes Asia report, mass production of a 5 nm SoC on SMIC's existing DUV lithography would require four-fold patterning in a best case scenario.

News reports from Asia point to an ongoing price battle between major chip foundries in the region—sluggish market conditions in 2023 have caused the big industry names to adjust charges, in concerted efforts to retain customers. This situation has escalated in early 2024—news media outlets claim that mainland China-situated factories have plenty of new production capacity, and are therefore eager to get their order books filled. The reports point to: "Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor and Jinghe Semiconductor lowering the price of tape-out services to chip design companies in Taiwan." Industry insiders believe that several Taiwanese IC designers have jumped onto better deals, as offered by Chinese facilities—it is alleged that Samsung, GlobalFoundries, UMC and Powerchip have all experienced a worrying increase in customer cancellations (at the tail end of 2023). The loss of long-term clients has forced manufacturers—in South Korea and Taiwan—into a price war.

TrendForce's analysis of market trends stated: "Due to the mature manufacturing processes in China, unaffected by US export restrictions, the lowered wafer fabrication costs have become attractive to Taiwanese IC design companies seeking to enhance their cost competitiveness. Reports also indicate that this competitive pressure has forced Taiwan's foundries, UMC and PSMC, to follow suit by reducing their prices. UMC has lowered its 12-inch wafer foundry services by an average of 10-15%, while its 8-inch wafer services have seen an average price reduction of 20%. These price adjustments took effect in the fourth quarter of 2023." Samsung is reportedly slashing prices by ~10-15%, and is expressing a "willingness to negotiate" with key clients in early 2024. Reports state this is a major change in attitude for the South Korean chip giant—allegedly, leadership was unwilling to budge on 2023 tape-out costs. TrendForce reckons that TSMC's response was a bit quicker: "(having) already initiated pricing concessions last year, mainly related to mask costs rather than wafer fabrication. It was reported that these concessions primarily applied to the 7 nm process and were dependent on order volumes."

According to the latest teardown from TechInsights, China's biggest technology maker, Huawei, has been shipping laptops with technology supposedly sanctioned by the United States. As the teardown shows, TechInisights has discovered that Huawei's Kirin 9006C processor is manufactured on TSMC's 5 nm semiconductor technology. Originally, the United States have imposed sanctions on Huawei back in 2020, when the government cut off Huawei's access from TSMC's advanced facilities and forbade the use of the latest nodes by Huawei's HiSilicon chip design arm. Today's findings show signs of contradiction, as the Qingyun L540 notebook that launched in December 2023 employs a Kirin 9006C chipset manufactured on a TSMC 5 nm node.

TechInsight's findings indicate that Kirin 9006C assembly and packaging occurred around the third quarter of 2020, whereas the 2020 Huawei sanctions started in the second quarter. Of course, the implication of the sanctions likely prohibited any new orders and didn't prevent Huawei from possibly stockpiling millions of chip orders in its warehouse before they took place. The Chinese giant probably made orders beforehand and is using the technology only now, with the Qingyun L540 laptop being one of the first Kirin 9006C appearances. Some online retailers also point out that the laptop complies with the latest security practices required for the government, which means that they have been in the works since the chip began the early stages of design, way before 2020. We don't know the stockpile quantity, but SMIC's domestic efforts seem insufficient to supply the Chinese market alone. The news that Huawei is still using TSMC chips made SMIC's share go for a 2% free fall on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

According to the report from a journal called Fundamental Research, researchers from the Institute of Computing Technology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed a 256-core multi-chiplet processor called Zhejiang Big Chip, with plans to scale up to 1,600 cores by utilizing an entire wafer. As transistor density gains slow, alternatives like multi-chiplet architectures become crucial for continued performance growth. The Zhejiang chip combines 16 chiplets, each holding 16 RISC-V cores, interconnected via network-on-chip. This design can theoretically expand to 100 chiplets and 1,600 cores on an advanced 2.5D packaging interposer. While multi-chiplet is common today, using the whole wafer for one system would match Cerebras' breakthrough approach. Built on 22 nm process technology, the researchers cite exascale supercomputing as an ideal application for massively parallel multi-chiplet architectures.

Careful software optimization is required to balance workloads across the system hierarchy. Integrating near-memory processing and 3D stacking could further optimize efficiency. The paper explores lithography and packaging limits, proposing hierarchical chiplet systems as a flexible path to future computing scale. While yield and cooling challenges need further work, the 256-core foundation demonstrates the potential of modular designs as an alternative to monolithic integration. China's focus mirrors multiple initiatives from American giants like AMD and Intel for data center CPUs. But national semiconductor ambitions add urgency to prove domestically designed solutions can rival foreign innovation. Although performance details are unclear, the rapid progress shows promise in mastering modular chip integration. Combined with improving domestic nodes like the 7 nm one from SMIC, China could easily create a viable Exascale system in-house.

Huawei's subsidiary HiSilicon has made significant strides in the independent R&D of AI chips, launching the next-gen Ascend 910B. These chips are utilized not only in Huawei's public cloud infrastructure but also sold to other Chinese companies. This year, Baidu ordered over a thousand Ascend 910B chips from Huawei to build approximately 200 AI servers. Additionally, in August, Chinese company iFlytek, in partnership with Huawei, released the "Gemini Star Program," a hardware and software integrated device for exclusive enterprise LLMs, equipped with the Ascend 910B AI acceleration chip, according to TrendForce's research.

TrendForce conjectures that the next-generation Ascend 910B chip is likely manufactured using SMIC's N+2 process. However, the production faces two potential risks. Firstly, as Huawei recently focused on expanding its smartphone business, the N+2 process capacity at SMIC is almost entirely allocated to Huawei's smartphone products, potentially limiting future capacity for AI chips. Secondly, SMIC remains on the Entity List, possibly restricting access to advanced process equipment.

TrendForce's research indicates a dynamic third quarter for the global foundry industry, marked by an uptick in urgent orders for smartphone and notebook components. This surge was fueled by healthy inventory levels and the release of new iPhone and Android devices in 2H23. Despite persisting inflation risks and market uncertainties, these orders were predominantly executed as rush orders. Additionally, TSMC and Samsung's high-cost 3 nm manufacturing process had a positive impact on revenues, driving the 3Q23 value of the top ten global foundries to approximately US$28.29 billion—a 7.9% QoQ increase.

Looking ahead to 4Q23, the anticipation of year-end festive demand is expected to sustain the inflow of urgent orders for smartphones and laptops, particularly for smartphone components. Although the end-user market is yet to fully recover, pre-sales season stockpiling for Chinese Android smartphones appears to be slightly better than expected, with demand for mid-to-low range 5G and 4G phone APs and continued interest in new iPhone models. This scenario suggests a continued upward trend for the top ten global foundries in Q4, potentially exceeding the growth rate seen in Q3.

NVIDIA's most recent FY3Q24 financial reports reveal record-high revenue coming from its data center segment, driven by escalating demand for AI servers from major North American CSPs. However, TrendForce points out that recent US government sanctions targeting China have impacted NVIDIA's business in the region. Despite strong shipments of NVIDIA's high-end GPUs—and the rapid introduction of compliant products such as the H20, L20, and L2—Chinese cloud operators are still in the testing phase, making substantial revenue contributions to NVIDIA unlikely in Q4. Gradual shipments increases are expected from the first quarter of 2024.

The US ban continues to influence China's foundry market as Chinese CSPs' high-end AI server shipments potentially drop below 4% next year
TrendForce reports that North American CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS will remain key drivers of high-end AI servers (including those with NVIDIA, AMD, or other high-end ASIC chips) from 2023 to 2024. Their estimated shipments are expected to be 24%, 18.6%, and 16.3%, respectively, for 2024. Chinese CSPs such as ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent (BBAT) are projected to have a combined shipment share of approximately 6.3% in 2023. However, this could decrease to less than 4% in 2024, considering the current and potential future impacts of the ban.

The Chinese semiconductor industry is advancing, and interestingly, it is growing rapidly under sanctions, even with the blacklisting of companies by the US government. China's semiconductor industry is mainly represented by companies like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and Huawei Technologies, who are leading the investment and progress in both chip manufacturing and chip design. According to the latest interview with Bloomberg, former TSMC Vice President Burn J. Lin said that the US government and its sanctions can not stop the advancement of Chinese semiconductor companies. Currently, Lin notes that SMIC and Huawei can use older machinery to produce more advanced chips.

Even so, SMIC could progress to 5 nm technology using existing equipment, particularly with scanners and other machinery from ASML. Development under sanctions would also force China to experiment with new materials and other chip packaging techniques that yield higher performance targets. SMIC has already developed a 7 nm semiconductor manufacturing node, which Huawei used for its latest Mate 60 Pro smartphone, based on Huawei's custom HiSilicon Kirin 9000S chip. Similarly, the transition is expected to happen to the 5 nm node as well, and it is only a matter of time before we see other nodes appear. "It is just not possible for the US to completely prevent China from improving its chip technology," noted Burn J. Lin.

Moore Threads Technology (MTT), a Chinese GPU manufacturer, is reportedly testing its next-generation graphics processors for client PCs and data centers. The products under scrutiny are the MTT S90 for client/gaming computers and the MTT S4000 for data centers. Characterized by their Device IDs, 0301 and 0323, this could imply that these GPUs belong to MTT's 3rd generation GPU lineup. While few details about these GPUs are available, the new Device IDs suggest a possible introduction of a novel microarchitecture following the MTT Chunxiao GPU series. The current generation Chunxiao series, featuring the MTT S70, MTT S80, and MTT S3000, failed to compete effectively with AMD, Intel, and NVIDIA GPUs.

Thanks to @Löschzwerg who found the Device Hunt submission, we see hardware identifiers in PCI ID and USB ID repositories earlier than launch, as this often signals the testing of new chips or drivers by various companies. In the case of MTT, the latest developments are complicated by its recent inclusion on the U.S. Entity List, limiting its access to US-made technologies. This introduces a problem for the company, as they can't access TSMC's facilities for chip production, and will have to turn to domestic production in the likely case, with SMIC being the only leading option to consider.

TrendForce reports that from 2023 to 2027, the global ratio of mature (>28 nm) to advanced (<16 nm) processes is projected to hover around 7:3. Propelled by policies and incentives promoting local production and domestic IC development, China's mature process capacity is anticipated to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, HuaHong Group, and Nexchip, while Taiwan's share is estimated to consolidate from 49% down to 42%.

Expansion predominantly targets specialty processes such as Driver ICs, CIS/ISPs, and Power Discretes, with second and third-tier Taiwanese manufacturers at the forefront
Within the Driver IC sector, the spotlight is on high voltage (HV) specialty processes. As companies aggressively pursue the 40/28 nm HV process, UMC currently dominates, trailed by GlobalFoundries. Yet, SMIC's 28HV and Nexchip's 40HV are gearing up for mass production in 4Q23 and 1H24, respectively—narrowing their technological gap with other foundries. Notably, competitors with similar process capabilities and capacities, such as PSMC, and those without twelve-inch factories like Vanguard and DBHitek, are poised to face challenges head-on in the short term. This trend may also have long-term implications for UMC and GlobalFoundries.

TrendForce research indicates that in 1H23, the utilization rate of 8-inch production capacity primarily benefited from sporadic inventory restocking orders for Driver ICs in the second quarter. Additionally, wafer foundries initiated pricing strategies to encourage clients into early orders, offering solid backup. However, in 2H23, persistent macroeconomic and inventory challenges led to the evaporation of an anticipated demand surge.

Meanwhile, stockpiles in automotive and industrial control segments grew after meeting initial shortages, tempering demand. Under fierce price competition from PMIC leader Texas Instruments (TI), inventory reductions for Fabless and other IDMs were drastically inhibited. With IDMs ushering in output from their new plants and pulling back outsourced orders, this compounded reductions to wafer foundries. This dynamic saw 8-inch production capacity utilization dipping to 50-60% in the second half of the year. Both Tier 1 and Tier 2/3 8-inch wafer foundries saw a more lackluster capacity utilization performance compared to the first half of the year.

TrendForce reports an interesting shift in the electronics landscape: dwindling inventories for TV components, along with a surging mobile repair market that's been driving TDDI demand, have sparked a smattering of urgent orders in the Q2 supply chain. These last-minute orders have served as pivotal lifelines, propping up Q2 capacity utilization and revenue for semiconductor foundries. However, the adrenaline rush from these stop-gap orders may be a short-lived phenomenon and is unlikely to be carried over into the third quarter.

On the other hand, demand for staple consumer products like smartphones, PCs, and notebooks remains sluggish, perpetuating a slump in the use of expensive, cutting-edge manufacturing processes. At the same time, traditionally stable sectors—automotive, industrial control, and servers—are undergoing inventory correction. The confluence of these trends has resulted in a sustained contraction for the world's top ten semiconductor foundries. Their global revenue declined by approximately 1.1% for the quarter, amounting to a staggering US$26.2 billion.