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Chinese Researchers Want to Make Wafer-Scale RISC-V Processors with up to 1,600 Cores

According to the report from a journal called Fundamental Research, researchers from the Institute of Computing Technology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed a 256-core multi-chiplet processor called Zhejiang Big Chip, with plans to scale up to 1,600 cores by utilizing an entire wafer. As transistor density gains slow, alternatives like multi-chiplet architectures become crucial for continued performance growth. The Zhejiang chip combines 16 chiplets, each holding 16 RISC-V cores, interconnected via network-on-chip. This design can theoretically expand to 100 chiplets and 1,600 cores on an advanced 2.5D packaging interposer. While multi-chiplet is common today, using the whole wafer for one system would match Cerebras' breakthrough approach. Built on 22 nm process technology, the researchers cite exascale supercomputing as an ideal application for massively parallel multi-chiplet architectures.

Careful software optimization is required to balance workloads across the system hierarchy. Integrating near-memory processing and 3D stacking could further optimize efficiency. The paper explores lithography and packaging limits, proposing hierarchical chiplet systems as a flexible path to future computing scale. While yield and cooling challenges need further work, the 256-core foundation demonstrates the potential of modular designs as an alternative to monolithic integration. China's focus mirrors multiple initiatives from American giants like AMD and Intel for data center CPUs. But national semiconductor ambitions add urgency to prove domestically designed solutions can rival foreign innovation. Although performance details are unclear, the rapid progress shows promise in mastering modular chip integration. Combined with improving domestic nodes like the 7 nm one from SMIC, China could easily create a viable Exascale system in-house.

China Continues to Enhance AI Chip Self-Sufficiency, but High-End AI Chip Development Remains Constrained

Huawei's subsidiary HiSilicon has made significant strides in the independent R&D of AI chips, launching the next-gen Ascend 910B. These chips are utilized not only in Huawei's public cloud infrastructure but also sold to other Chinese companies. This year, Baidu ordered over a thousand Ascend 910B chips from Huawei to build approximately 200 AI servers. Additionally, in August, Chinese company iFlytek, in partnership with Huawei, released the "Gemini Star Program," a hardware and software integrated device for exclusive enterprise LLMs, equipped with the Ascend 910B AI acceleration chip, according to TrendForce's research.

TrendForce conjectures that the next-generation Ascend 910B chip is likely manufactured using SMIC's N+2 process. However, the production faces two potential risks. Firstly, as Huawei recently focused on expanding its smartphone business, the N+2 process capacity at SMIC is almost entirely allocated to Huawei's smartphone products, potentially limiting future capacity for AI chips. Secondly, SMIC remains on the Entity List, possibly restricting access to advanced process equipment.

Top 10 Foundries Experience 7.9% QoQ Growth in 3Q23, with a Continued Upward Trend Predicted for Q4

TrendForce's research indicates a dynamic third quarter for the global foundry industry, marked by an uptick in urgent orders for smartphone and notebook components. This surge was fueled by healthy inventory levels and the release of new iPhone and Android devices in 2H23. Despite persisting inflation risks and market uncertainties, these orders were predominantly executed as rush orders. Additionally, TSMC and Samsung's high-cost 3 nm manufacturing process had a positive impact on revenues, driving the 3Q23 value of the top ten global foundries to approximately US$28.29 billion—a 7.9% QoQ increase.

Looking ahead to 4Q23, the anticipation of year-end festive demand is expected to sustain the inflow of urgent orders for smartphones and laptops, particularly for smartphone components. Although the end-user market is yet to fully recover, pre-sales season stockpiling for Chinese Android smartphones appears to be slightly better than expected, with demand for mid-to-low range 5G and 4G phone APs and continued interest in new iPhone models. This scenario suggests a continued upward trend for the top ten global foundries in Q4, potentially exceeding the growth rate seen in Q3.

NVIDIA Experiences Strong Cloud AI Demand but Faces Challenges in China, with High-End AI Server Shipments Expected to Be Below 4% in 2024

NVIDIA's most recent FY3Q24 financial reports reveal record-high revenue coming from its data center segment, driven by escalating demand for AI servers from major North American CSPs. However, TrendForce points out that recent US government sanctions targeting China have impacted NVIDIA's business in the region. Despite strong shipments of NVIDIA's high-end GPUs—and the rapid introduction of compliant products such as the H20, L20, and L2—Chinese cloud operators are still in the testing phase, making substantial revenue contributions to NVIDIA unlikely in Q4. Gradual shipments increases are expected from the first quarter of 2024.

The US ban continues to influence China's foundry market as Chinese CSPs' high-end AI server shipments potentially drop below 4% next year
TrendForce reports that North American CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS will remain key drivers of high-end AI servers (including those with NVIDIA, AMD, or other high-end ASIC chips) from 2023 to 2024. Their estimated shipments are expected to be 24%, 18.6%, and 16.3%, respectively, for 2024. Chinese CSPs such as ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent (BBAT) are projected to have a combined shipment share of approximately 6.3% in 2023. However, this could decrease to less than 4% in 2024, considering the current and potential future impacts of the ban.

US Government Can't Stop Chinese Semiconductor Advancement, Notes Former TSMC VP

The Chinese semiconductor industry is advancing, and interestingly, it is growing rapidly under sanctions, even with the blacklisting of companies by the US government. China's semiconductor industry is mainly represented by companies like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and Huawei Technologies, who are leading the investment and progress in both chip manufacturing and chip design. According to the latest interview with Bloomberg, former TSMC Vice President Burn J. Lin said that the US government and its sanctions can not stop the advancement of Chinese semiconductor companies. Currently, Lin notes that SMIC and Huawei can use older machinery to produce more advanced chips.

Even so, SMIC could progress to 5 nm technology using existing equipment, particularly with scanners and other machinery from ASML. Development under sanctions would also force China to experiment with new materials and other chip packaging techniques that yield higher performance targets. SMIC has already developed a 7 nm semiconductor manufacturing node, which Huawei used for its latest Mate 60 Pro smartphone, based on Huawei's custom HiSilicon Kirin 9000S chip. Similarly, the transition is expected to happen to the 5 nm node as well, and it is only a matter of time before we see other nodes appear. "It is just not possible for the US to completely prevent China from improving its chip technology," noted Burn J. Lin.

Moore Threads Prepares S90 and S4000 GPUs for Gaming and Data Center

Moore Threads Technology (MTT), a Chinese GPU manufacturer, is reportedly testing its next-generation graphics processors for client PCs and data centers. The products under scrutiny are the MTT S90 for client/gaming computers and the MTT S4000 for data centers. Characterized by their Device IDs, 0301 and 0323, this could imply that these GPUs belong to MTT's 3rd generation GPU lineup. While few details about these GPUs are available, the new Device IDs suggest a possible introduction of a novel microarchitecture following the MTT Chunxiao GPU series. The current generation Chunxiao series, featuring the MTT S70, MTT S80, and MTT S3000, failed to compete effectively with AMD, Intel, and NVIDIA GPUs.

Thanks to @Löschzwerg who found the Device Hunt submission, we see hardware identifiers in PCI ID and USB ID repositories earlier than launch, as this often signals the testing of new chips or drivers by various companies. In the case of MTT, the latest developments are complicated by its recent inclusion on the U.S. Entity List, limiting its access to US-made technologies. This introduces a problem for the company, as they can't access TSMC's facilities for chip production, and will have to turn to domestic production in the likely case, with SMIC being the only leading option to consider.

China's Share in Mature Process Capacity Predicted to Hit 29% in 2023, Climbing to 33% by 2027

TrendForce reports that from 2023 to 2027, the global ratio of mature (>28 nm) to advanced (<16 nm) processes is projected to hover around 7:3. Propelled by policies and incentives promoting local production and domestic IC development, China's mature process capacity is anticipated to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, HuaHong Group, and Nexchip, while Taiwan's share is estimated to consolidate from 49% down to 42%.

Expansion predominantly targets specialty processes such as Driver ICs, CIS/ISPs, and Power Discretes, with second and third-tier Taiwanese manufacturers at the forefront
Within the Driver IC sector, the spotlight is on high voltage (HV) specialty processes. As companies aggressively pursue the 40/28 nm HV process, UMC currently dominates, trailed by GlobalFoundries. Yet, SMIC's 28HV and Nexchip's 40HV are gearing up for mass production in 4Q23 and 1H24, respectively—narrowing their technological gap with other foundries. Notably, competitors with similar process capabilities and capacities, such as PSMC, and those without twelve-inch factories like Vanguard and DBHitek, are poised to face challenges head-on in the short term. This trend may also have long-term implications for UMC and GlobalFoundries.

Second Half Utilization Rate for 8-inch Production Capacity Expected to Drop to 50-60%; Chilly Demand Prospects Until 1Q24

TrendForce research indicates that in 1H23, the utilization rate of 8-inch production capacity primarily benefited from sporadic inventory restocking orders for Driver ICs in the second quarter. Additionally, wafer foundries initiated pricing strategies to encourage clients into early orders, offering solid backup. However, in 2H23, persistent macroeconomic and inventory challenges led to the evaporation of an anticipated demand surge.

Meanwhile, stockpiles in automotive and industrial control segments grew after meeting initial shortages, tempering demand. Under fierce price competition from PMIC leader Texas Instruments (TI), inventory reductions for Fabless and other IDMs were drastically inhibited. With IDMs ushering in output from their new plants and pulling back outsourced orders, this compounded reductions to wafer foundries. This dynamic saw 8-inch production capacity utilization dipping to 50-60% in the second half of the year. Both Tier 1 and Tier 2/3 8-inch wafer foundries saw a more lackluster capacity utilization performance compared to the first half of the year.

Top Ten Semiconductor Foundries Report a 1.1% Quarterly Revenue Decline in 2Q23, Anticipated to Rebound in 3Q23

TrendForce reports an interesting shift in the electronics landscape: dwindling inventories for TV components, along with a surging mobile repair market that's been driving TDDI demand, have sparked a smattering of urgent orders in the Q2 supply chain. These last-minute orders have served as pivotal lifelines, propping up Q2 capacity utilization and revenue for semiconductor foundries. However, the adrenaline rush from these stop-gap orders may be a short-lived phenomenon and is unlikely to be carried over into the third quarter.

On the other hand, demand for staple consumer products like smartphones, PCs, and notebooks remains sluggish, perpetuating a slump in the use of expensive, cutting-edge manufacturing processes. At the same time, traditionally stable sectors—automotive, industrial control, and servers—are undergoing inventory correction. The confluence of these trends has resulted in a sustained contraction for the world's top ten semiconductor foundries. Their global revenue declined by approximately 1.1% for the quarter, amounting to a staggering US$26.2 billion.

China Ramps Up Semiconductor Imports Ahead of Export Restrictions

China has sharply increased imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in recent months, customs data reveals. The country's purchases of chip production tools surged to record highs of nearly $5 billion in June and July, a 70% increase versus the same period last year, which amounted to $2.9 billion. The spike comes right before export restrictions on advanced chipmaking equipment are implemented by the U.S. and its allies. The moves aim to slow China's technological advancement, but Chinese chipmakers are stockpiling to avoid disruptions. Much of the equipment comes from the Netherlands and Japan, which have imposed licensing requirements on certain tool exports. While it's unclear how many are affected, the rush suggests China wants to expand production capacity and buffer against supply chain issues.

Chinese firms like SMIC and YMTC rely heavily on U.S., Dutch, and Japanese suppliers for cutting-edge manufacturing equipment. They are utilizing imported tools to boost the output of mature chips not subject to controls, particularly for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and industrial applications. Significantly, imports from the Netherlands doubled as lithography machines were delivered to Chinese foundries. Purchases from Japan also rose as companies procured etching tools and wafer coaters after 2020 U.S. restrictions. Newly established foundries backed by local governments contributed as Beijing pushed chip production expansions. Despite export control challenges, China aims to keep advancing its semiconductor capabilities. The import spike highlights intensified efforts to build self-sufficiency using older technology not covered by current limits.

Samsung's 3 nm GAA Process Identified in a Crypto-mining ASIC Designed by China Startup MicroBT

Semiconductor industry research firm TechInsights said it has found that Samsung's 3 nm GAA (gate-all-around) process has been incorporated into the crypto miner ASIC (Whatsminer M56S++) from a Chinese manufacturer, MicroBT. In a Disruptive Technology Event Brief exclusively provided to DIGITIMES Asia, TechInsights points out that the significance of this development lies in the commercial utilization of GAA technology, which facilitates the scaling of transistors to 2 nm and beyond. "This development is crucial because it has the potential to enhance performance, improve energy efficiency, keep up with Moore's Law, and enable advanced applications," said TechInsights, identifying the MicroBT ASIC chip the first commercialized product using GAA technology in the industry.

But this would also reveal that Samsung is the foundry for MicroBT, using the 3 nm GAA process. DIGITIMES Research semiconductor analyst Eric Chen pointed out that Samsung indeed has started producing chips using the 3 nm GAA process, but the capacity is still small. "Getting revenues from shipment can be defined as 'commercialization', but ASIC is a relatively simple kind of chip to produce, in terms of architecture."

Despite Export Ban on Equipment, China's Semiconductor Expansion in Mature Processes Remains Strong

On June 30th, the Netherlands introduced new export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Despite facing export controls from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands, TrendForce anticipates the market share of Chinese foundries in terms of 12-inch wafer production capacity will likely increase from 24% in 2022 to an estimated 26% in 2026. Moreover, if the exports of 40/28 nm equipment eventually receive approval, there's a chance that this market share could expand even further, possibly reaching 28% by 2026. This growth potential should not be dismissed.

Several manufacturing processes including photolithography, deposition, and epitaxy will be subject to these recent export restrictions. Beginning September 1st, the export of all controlled items will require formal authorization. TrendForce reports that Chinese foundries have been primarily developing mature processes like 55 nm, 40 nm, and 28 nm. Furthermore, demand for deposition equipment can be largely met by local Chinese vendors, meaning concerns regarding expansion and development are minimal. The main limiting factor, however, remains the equipment used in photolithography.

SMIC Reports Q1 2023 Results, Revenue and Profits Down

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SEHK: 00981; SSE STAR MARKET: 688981) ("SMIC", the "Company" or "we"), one of the leading semiconductor foundries in the world, today announced its consolidated results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2023.

According to the international financial reporting standards, in the first quarter, the Company's revenue slightly beat guidance, gross margin was close to the high end of our guided range; in the second quarter, the Company expects the capacity utilization rate and shipments will perform better than first quarter. Revenue is expected to increase by 5% to 7% sequentially, with a decline in blended ASP due to the impact of changes in product mix; gross margin is expected to be between 19% and 21%.

2026 All-Time High in Store for Global 300 mm Semiconductor Fab Capacity After 2023 Slowdown

Semiconductor manufacturers worldwide are forecast to increase 300 mm fab capacity to an all-time high of 9.6 million wafers per month (wpm) in 2026, SEMI announced today in its 300 mm Fab Outlook to 2026 report. After strong growth in 2021 and 2022, the 300 mm capacity expansion is expected to slow this year due to soft demand for memory and logic devices.

"While the pace of the global 300 mm fab capacity expansion is moderating, the industry remains squarely focused on growing capacity to meet robust secular demand for semiconductors," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI President and CEO. "The foundry, memory and power sectors will be major drivers of the new record capacity increase expected in 2026."

Report: Total Revenue of Top 10 Foundries Fell by 4.7% QoQ for 4Q22 and Will Slide Further for 1Q23

According to TrendForce's latest survey of the global foundry market, electronics brands began adjusting their inventories in 2Q22, but foundries were unable to rapidly adapt to this development because they reside in the more upper portion of the supply chain. Moreover, revising procurement quantities of long-term foundry contracts takes time as well. Hence, only some tier-2 and -3 foundries were able to immediately respond to the changes in their clients' demand. Also, among them, 8-inch wafer foundries made a more pronounced reduction in their capacity utilization rates. As for the remaining foundries, the downward corrections that they made to their capacity utilization rates did not become noticeable until 4Q22. Hence, in 4Q22, the quarterly total revenue of the global top 10 foundries registered a QoQ decline for the first time after 13 consecutive quarters of positive growth. The quarterly total revenue of the top 10 foundries came to US$33,530 million, reflecting a drop of 4.7% from 3Q22. Moving into 1Q23, TrendForce projects that the quarterly total revenue of the top 10 will show an even steeper drop on account of seasonality and the uncertain macroeconomic situation.

Huawei Prepares EUV Scanner for Sub-7 nm Chinese Chips

Huawei, the Chinese technology giant, has reportedly filed patents that it is developing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) scanners for use in the manufacturing process of semiconductors. This news comes amid increasing tensions between Huawei and the US government, which has imposed a series of sanctions on the company in recent years. According to UDN, Huawei has filed a patent that covers the entire EUV scanner with a 13.5 nm EUV light source, mirrors, lithography for printing circuits, and proper system control. While filing a patent is not the same as creating an accurate EUV scanner, it could enable China to produce a class of chips below 7 nm and have a homegrown semiconductor production, despite the ever-increasing US sanctions.

The development of EUV scanners is a significant milestone for Huawei and the semiconductor industry. However, the company's progress in this area may be hindered by the US government's sanctions, which have limited Huawei's access to certain technologies and markets. It is important to note that Chinese SMIC wanted to develop EUV fabrication based on third-party EUV tools; however, those plans were scrapped as the Wassenaar agreement came into action and prohibited the sales of advanced tools to Chinese companies. Huawei's development could represent a new milestone for the entire Chinese industry.

Global Top 10 Foundries' Total Revenue Grew by 6% QoQ for 3Q22, but Foundry Industry's Revenue Performance Will Enter Correction Period in 4Q22

According to TrendForce's research, the total revenue of the global top 10 foundries rose by 6% QoQ to US$35.21 billion for 3Q22 as the release of the new iPhone series during the second half of the year generated significant stock-up activities across Apple's supply chain. However, the global economy shows weak performances, and factors such as China's policy on containing COVID-19 outbreaks and high inflation continue to impact consumer confidence. As a result, peak-season demand in the second half of the year has been underwhelming, and inventory consumption is proceeding slower than anticipated. This situation has led to substantial downward corrections to foundry orders as well. For 4Q22, TrendForce forecasts that the total revenue of the global top 10 foundries will register a QoQ decline, thereby terminating the boom of the past two years—when there was an uninterrupted trend of QoQ revenue growth.

Regarding individual foundries' performances in 3Q22, the group of the top five was led by TSMC, followed by Samsung, UMC, GlobalFoundries, and SMIC. Their collective global market share (in revenue terms) came to 89.6%. Most foundries were directly impacted by clients slowing down their stock-up activities or significantly correcting down their orders. Only TSMC was able to make a notable gain due to Apple's strong stock-up demand for the SoCs deployed in this year's new iPhone models. TSMC saw its revenue rise by 11.1% QoQ to US$20.16 billion, and the corresponding market share expanded to 56.1%. The growth was mainly attributed to the ≤7 nm nodes, whose share in the foundry's revenue had kept climbing and reached 54% in the third quarter. Conversely, Samsung actually experienced a slight QoQ drop of 0.1% in foundry revenue even though it had also benefited from the component demand related to the new iPhone series. Partially impacted by the weakening of the Korean won, Samsung's market share fell to 15.5%.

2Q22 Output Value Growth at Top 10 Foundries Falls to 3.9% QoQ, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce research, due to steady weakening of overall demand for consumer electronics, inventory pressure has increased among downstream distributors and brands. Although there are still sporadic shortages of specific components, the curtain has officially fallen on a two-year wave of shortages in general, and brands have gradually suspended stocking in response to changes in market conditions. However, stable demand for automotive and industrial equipment is key to supporting the ongoing growth of foundry output value. At the same time, since the creation of a marginal amount of new capacity in 2Q22 led to growth in wafer shipments and a price hike for certain wafers, this drove output value among top ten foundries to reach US$33.20 billion in 2Q22. Quarterly growth fell to 3.9% on a weakening consumer market.

A prelude to inventory correction was officially revealed in 3Q22. In addition to intensifying severity in the initial wave of order slashing for LDDI/TDDI, and TV SoC, diminishing order volume also extended to non-Apple smartphone APs and peripheral IC PMIC, CIS, and consumer electronics PMICs, and mid-to-low-end MCUs, posing a challenge for foundry capacity utilization. However, the launch of the new iPhone in 3Q22 is expected to prop up a certain amount of stocking momentum for the sluggish market. Therefore, top ten foundry revenue in 3Q22 is expected to maintain a growth trend driven by high-priced processes and quarterly growth rate is expected to be slightly higher than in 2Q22.

US Strengthens China Export Bans, Limiting Access to Manufacturing Technology

The US Department of Commerce is in the process of increasing the stranglehold in tech exports directed to Chinese shores. The move is being made through the delivery of letters to US-based technology companies - namely KLA Corp, Lam Research Corp and Applied Materials Inc. - ordering them to stop the export of machines and equipment that can be used for sub-14 nm manufacturing. The move by the Department of Commerce only has validity for the companies that have been served by such a letter - at least until the Department codifies its newest regulations.

This means that only sellers with approved export licenses can keep doing business with Beijing, thus limiting the US companies China can work with as it aims to achieve at least a degree of self-sufficiency in the latest chipmaking tech. Perhaps the decision has come too late, however, as China's mainstay silicon manufacturing, SMIC, already manufactures chips at the 14 nm process (chips that have been deployed in China's Tinahu Light supercomputer already) and has even showcased manufacturing capability in the 7 nm field. It pays to remember that the US already had applied similar restrictions on equipment experts to China for the better part of two years - which apparently did little to stem China's capability to create increasingly denser semiconductor designs.

Chinese SMIC Ships 7 nm Chips, Reportedly Copied TSMC's Design

The Chinese technology giant, SMIC, has managed to advance its semiconductor manufacturing technology and shipped the first 7 nm silicon manufactured on China's soil. According to analyst firm TechInsights, who examined the 7 nm Bitcoin mining SoC made for MinerVa firm, there are doubts that SMIC 7 nm process is somewhat similar to TSMC's 7 nm process. Despite having no access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing tools, and US restrictions placed around it, SMIC has managed to produce what resembles an almost perfect 7 nm node. This could lead to a true 7 nm logic and memory bitcells sometimes in the future, as the node advances in SMIC's labs.

Having done an in-depth die analysis, the TechInsights report indicates that TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have a more advanced 7 nm node and are two nodes ahead of the Chinese SMIC. The results are not great regarding the economics and yield of this SMIC 7 nm process. While we have no specific data, the report indicates that the actual working chips made with older DUV tools are not perfect. This is not a problem for the Chinese market as it seeks independence from Western companies and technology. However, introducing a China-made 7 nm chip is more critical as it shows that the country can manufacture advanced nodes with restrictions and sanctions in place. The MinerVa SoC die and the PCB that houses those chips are pictured below.

Off-season Offsets Wafer Pricing Increase, 1Q22 Foundry Output Value Up 8.2% QoQ, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce research, although demand for consumer electronics remains weak, structural growth demand in the semiconductor industry including for servers, high-performance computing, automotive, and industrial equipment has not flagged, becoming a key driver for medium and long term foundry growth. At the same time, due to robust wafer production at higher pricing in 1Q22, quarterly output value hit a new high for the 11th consecutive quarter, reaching US$31.96 billion, 8.2% QoQ, marginally less than the previous quarter. In terms of ranking, the biggest change is Nexchip surpassed Tower at the ninth position.

TSMC's across the board wafer hikes in 4Q21 on batches primarily produced in 1Q22 coupled with sustained strong demand for high-performance computing and better foreign currency exchange rates pushed TSMC's 1Q22 revenue to $17.53 billion, up 11.3% QoQ. Quarterly revenue growth by node was generally around 10% and the 7/6 nm and 16/12 nm processes posted the highest growth rate due to small expansions in production. The only instance of revenue decline came at the 5/4 nm process due to Apple's iPhone 13 entering the off season for production stocking.

Top 10 Foundries Post Record 4Q21 Performance for 10th Consecutive Quarter at US$29.55B, Says TrendForce

The output value of the world's top 10 foundries in 4Q21 reached US$29.55 billion, or 8.3% growth QoQ, according to TrendForce's research. This is due to the interaction of two major factors. One is limited growth in overall production capacity. At present, the shortage of certain components for TVs and laptops has eased but there are other peripheral materials derived from mature process such as PMIC, Wi-Fi, and MCU that are still in short supply, precipitating continued fully loaded foundry capacity. Second is rising average selling price (ASP). In the fourth quarter, more expensive wafers were produced in succession led by TSMC and foundries continued to adjust their product mix to increase ASP. In terms of changes in this quarter's top 10 ranking, Nexchip overtook incumbent DB Hitek to clinch 10th place.

TrendForce believes that the output value of the world's top ten foundries will maintain a growth trend in 1Q22 but appreciation in ASP will still be the primary driver of said growth. However, since there are fewer first quarter working days in the Greater China Area due to the Lunar New Year holiday and this is the time when some foundries schedule an annual maintenance period, 1Q22 growth rate will be down slightly compared to 4Q21.

8-inch Wafer Capacity Remains Tight, Shortages Expected to Ease in 2H23, Says TrendForce

From 2020 to 2025, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12-inch equivalent wafer capacity at the world's top ten foundries will be approximately 10% with the majority of these companies focusing on 12-inch capacity expansion, which will see a CAGR of approximately 13.2%, according to TrendForce's research. In terms of 8-inch wafers, due to factors such as difficult to obtain equipment and whether capacity expansion is cost-effective, most fabs can only expand production slightly by means of capacity optimization, equating to a CAGR of only 3.3%. In terms of demand, the products primarily derived from 8-inch wafers, PMIC and Power Discrete, are driven by demand for electric vehicles, 5G smartphones, and servers. Stocking momentum has not fallen off, resulting in a serious shortage of 8-inch wafer production capacity that has festered since 2H19. Therefore, in order to mitigate competition for 8-inch capacity, a trend of shifting certain products to 12-inch production has gradually emerged. However, if shortages in overall 8-inch capacity is to be effectively alleviated, it is still necessary to wait for a large number of mainstream products to migrate to 12-inch production. The timeframe for this migration is estimated to be close to 2H23 into 2024.

UMC is Feeling the Pressure from Chinese Foundries

The chip shortage discussion has been very focused on TSMC for some reason and although the company is without a doubt the world's leading foundry, the company is making its living from being a cutting edge foundry, whereas much of the components that there's a shortage of are made on far older nodes at many different foundries. Taiwanese UMC is one of the foundries that makes many of the automotive semiconductors, as well as key components when it comes to power regulation and is considered the world's third largest foundry.

Until 2018, UMC was competing head on with TSMC, although the company was always about a node behind TSMC, which led to a management team decision to slow down its node transition and instead to focus on speciality technologies. The company has done well in this niche, with a revenue of about US$6.2 billion in 2020. However, UMC is starting to feel the pressure from its competitors in China, as the PRC government is making a push for local production of local IC designs.

AMD Expected to See 65 Percent Growth Rate in Sales for 2021, Intel Down One Percent

According to an industry report by IC Insights, AMD will see a yearly growth rate of no less than 65 percent this year, compared to 2020, whereas Intel is expected to have a slightly negative growth rate of one percent. The report includes the top 25 semiconductor sales leaders, ranked by growth rate, although it should be pointed out that some of them are foundries and not just semiconductor companies.

AMD is closely followed by MediaTek, which is expected to reach a 60 percent growth rate this year, followed by Nvidia at 54 percent and Qualcomm and 51 percent growth. The only surprise in the top five is PRC based SMIC, which saw a 39 percent growth this year, despite, or maybe because of the US sanctions against various Chinese IC makers.
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