Wednesday, July 27th 2011
Intel Aims at 10 nm Processors by 2018
It's not just host nations of the Olympics that are decided almost decades in advance, but also Intel's silicon names and the fab process they're going to be built on. Intel has its plan for the greater part of this decade already charted out, well beyond the upcoming Ivy Bridge architecture. Intel follows the "tick-tock" product cycle, where every micro-architecture gets to be built on two succeeding fab processes, and every fab process getting to have two succeeding micro-architectures built on it, in succession. Westmere is an optical shrink of the Nehalem architecture, it was a "tick" for the 32 nm process, Sandy Bridge is its "tock", and a new architecture. Ivy Bridge is essentially an optical shrink of Sandy Bridge, it is the "tick" for 22 nm process.
Ivy Bridge will make its entry through the LGA1155 platform in 2012, it will make up the 2012 Core processor family. Haswell is the next-generation architecture that succeeds Sandy Bridge and IvyBridge, it will be built on the 22 nm process, and is expected to arrive in 2013. Roswell is its optical shrink to 14 nm, slated for 2014. Looking deep into the decade, there's Skylake architecture, that will span across 14 nm and 10 nm processes with Skymont. This model ensures that Intel has to upgrade its fabs every 2 or so years, an entirely new micro-architecture every 2 or so years as well, while providing optical shrinks every alternating year. Optical shrinks introduce new features, increased caches, and allow higher clock speeds. 10 nm for processors by 2018 sounds realistic looking at the advancement of NAND flash technologies that are pushing the boundaries of fab process development. NAND flash is much less complex than processor development, and hence serve as good precursors to a new process.
Source:
ComputerBase.de
Ivy Bridge will make its entry through the LGA1155 platform in 2012, it will make up the 2012 Core processor family. Haswell is the next-generation architecture that succeeds Sandy Bridge and IvyBridge, it will be built on the 22 nm process, and is expected to arrive in 2013. Roswell is its optical shrink to 14 nm, slated for 2014. Looking deep into the decade, there's Skylake architecture, that will span across 14 nm and 10 nm processes with Skymont. This model ensures that Intel has to upgrade its fabs every 2 or so years, an entirely new micro-architecture every 2 or so years as well, while providing optical shrinks every alternating year. Optical shrinks introduce new features, increased caches, and allow higher clock speeds. 10 nm for processors by 2018 sounds realistic looking at the advancement of NAND flash technologies that are pushing the boundaries of fab process development. NAND flash is much less complex than processor development, and hence serve as good precursors to a new process.
64 Comments on Intel Aims at 10 nm Processors by 2018
But then again I am no engineer. I'm just an artist with a half degree in aerospace engineering. :laugh:
I think that combined with the layout of the chip itself should be enough to keep it from becoming an issue.
I'm more shaky on these points but I think you also get strange inductance and capacitance effects, but don't ask me to nail those down.
I think there are also issues of structural stability, migration of ions, etc, etc - at least using any kind of doped silicon. As hardcore pointed out, it's a long damn list.
wiki
1. Fragments (which is what I believe)
2. Splits (which my professor believed)
But at no time does it disappear and reappear like magic.
On a side note I want to welcome Hardcore to the forums. Its nice to see someone new with brains. :toast:
According to the wave function of a particle, it simultaneously exists in many energy states at many different locations. In some cases, if you have the right conditions, you can increase the probability that the particle will manifest in a location consistent with it's wave function but which should be precluded by classical mechanics.
That's the best I can do for you. This isn't an area encompassed by either of my graduate degrees so I'm kinda winging it.
Bastard.
Like I said I have some training in Aerospace engineering (few years of college). I wanted to be an avionics expert like my father at one time. Then I realized I hated math and loved drugs. Became an artist and forgot what planet I'm on half the time.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_Xeon_microprocessors#.22Sandy_Bridge.22_.2832_nm.29
most were released april 3rd, 2011 the same time the 10 core westmere's were released.
remember this is a server roadmap and not a deskop roadmap.
at any rate I seriously doubt the roadmap is for fiscal year, they are more than likely referencing the higher end sany bridge cpu's when they speak of late q4 2011. After all doesn't that mirror lga2011's release?
22nm from 32nm should enable considerably higher clockspeeds IMO, would be nice to see some 6 core CPU's make it to 1155 too. also it would be a hec of a blessing if 1155 Ivy brige chips work on curent P/H67 and Z68 mobo's.explains a hec of a lot ;)
Uncertainty principle gives a simple explanation. For a narrow barrier and high electric field across it, probability of finding the electron on the other side of the barrier takes a finite non-zero value.
Does considering splitting complicate things? Yeah but it COULD be an issue when getting down to 10nm as we were discussing (tunneling). The barrier will damn near be null at that point. As I said before it will be in the materials and design that will make or break a CPU when it gets that small. Intel has a tough road ahead IMO.
When the CMOS scaling hits a wall, all the major semiconductor companies should start making processors based on an open (license free) instruction set architecture which is more efficient than x86 and more scalable than ARM. ( my dream :D)
I'm of the belief that the time new tech hits the market those who put it out are r &d ing something 10 to 20 years beyound it. Consumer level is an inch above. End of life. We may not b able to see it like henery ford and his model t Couldn't see. The latest bmw 7 series but were on our way 2 nano tech just like the cartoons and movies. Our 2011 and bulldozers will b used in children toys and cofee makers(make u the perfect cup according to your dna)
www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2008/01/21/algae-computers.html
Can't patient nature. :toast: