Monday, March 26th 2018
NVIDIA, AMD to Face Worsening Investment Outlook as Bitmain Preps to Launch Ethereum ASIC
Analyst firm Susquehanna has cut AMD and NVIDIA's share price targets on the wake of confirmed reports on Bitmain's upcoming Ethereum ASIC. There's been talks about such a product for months - and some actual silicon steering as well that might support it. Susquehanna, through analyst Christopher Rolland in a note to clients Monday, cited their travels in Asia as a source of information.
This has brought confirmations that "(...) Bitmain has already developed an ASIC [application-specific integrated circuit] for mining Ethereum, and is readying the supply chain for shipments in 2Q18." And it doesn't seem Bitmain is the only company eyeing the doors of yet another extremely lucrative ASIC mining market: "While Bitmain is likely to be the largest ASIC vendor (currently 70-80% of Bitcoin mining ASICs) and the first to market with this product, we have learned of at least three other companies working on Ethereum ASICs, all at various stages of development."Rolland believes Bitmain's specialized chip offering for Ethereum will hurt demand for PC graphics cards - as well it should, since it stands as much a status quo breaker as Bitcoin mining ASIC were at the time of their introduction. Rolland further estimated that ethereum mining-related sales accounted for about 20% of AMD's sales and 10% of NVIDIA's revenue - strong numbers that if declining, would surely impact share value and company valuation. As a result, the analyst lowered his price target for AMD shares to $7.50 from $13, representing a 29% reduction from Friday's close. Forecast for NVIDIA shares was also reduced to $200 from $215, but NVIDIA didn't see a downgraded state - it remained at neutral - while AMD was downgraded from neutral to negative. The reasoning? "NVIDIA has a stronger and more durable gaming franchise which would help it work through this potential Ethereum-related unwind," he wrote.
Source:
Yahoo Finance
This has brought confirmations that "(...) Bitmain has already developed an ASIC [application-specific integrated circuit] for mining Ethereum, and is readying the supply chain for shipments in 2Q18." And it doesn't seem Bitmain is the only company eyeing the doors of yet another extremely lucrative ASIC mining market: "While Bitmain is likely to be the largest ASIC vendor (currently 70-80% of Bitcoin mining ASICs) and the first to market with this product, we have learned of at least three other companies working on Ethereum ASICs, all at various stages of development."Rolland believes Bitmain's specialized chip offering for Ethereum will hurt demand for PC graphics cards - as well it should, since it stands as much a status quo breaker as Bitcoin mining ASIC were at the time of their introduction. Rolland further estimated that ethereum mining-related sales accounted for about 20% of AMD's sales and 10% of NVIDIA's revenue - strong numbers that if declining, would surely impact share value and company valuation. As a result, the analyst lowered his price target for AMD shares to $7.50 from $13, representing a 29% reduction from Friday's close. Forecast for NVIDIA shares was also reduced to $200 from $215, but NVIDIA didn't see a downgraded state - it remained at neutral - while AMD was downgraded from neutral to negative. The reasoning? "NVIDIA has a stronger and more durable gaming franchise which would help it work through this potential Ethereum-related unwind," he wrote.
70 Comments on NVIDIA, AMD to Face Worsening Investment Outlook as Bitmain Preps to Launch Ethereum ASIC
Personally, I enjoy mining.
Edited for clarity
The waste attributed to crypto is built into the very foundation of it, and it is called mining. Creating something out of nothing and using lots of energy to get there. And that something is no tangible object, but a virtual asset we somehow gave an arbitrary value. For all these calculations we don't get any knowledge, we don't gain any experience, all we get is that we solve a math problem that we created ourselves. That is a bizarre form of waste built into a neverending cycle. Beyond power usage, there is the 'waste' of hardware, a commodity that has a degree of scarcity in the way of limitations on production capacity and also the rare metals we need to build them.
There is also a wasteful component to the usage of crypto, in the cost of transactions, although I do believe that is a temporary thing. In the longer term, I feel it is likely that crypto will offer a more power efficient means for transactions, simply because of a higher degree of automation, which results in an efficiency our current systems do not have. The major problem here is the decentralized nature of crypto versus the centralized nature of fiat. Centralization is a form of efficiency.
This 'waste' is in no way comparable to the waste attributed to other 'fun' activities like gaming. Also, these other leisure activities have a clear, well researched purpose. We learn, we gain experience, and we actually GAIN (personal) energy because of it, both physically and emotionally. For those mining with their hard earned dollar, I would in fact consider a polar opposite of these positives; mining and the value of crypto can then cause lots of stress and even financial problems. Now realistically, do we really think that the vast majority of miners does it 'for fun'? Of course not - evidenced by the countless topics on TPU about people who have little knowledge or have done little research and just want us to lead them towards that gold mine. If you had genuine interest in the technology, you would go about it differently and there are some that do, here as well. Again, it is not up to us to judge individuals or justify behaviour, but in the larger numbers, these are trends.
It does not even remotely compare. And another reason it does not compare, is because people are greedy and we have created a system that facilitates that greed, which means the volume of this activity explodes. This is not a stab at you, but at the way things just quite simply work on a macro scale. The above goes for you, too... So you claim to know what most people do in their lives to help others, you also know that you're the better person compared to most others (wow!), AND you're not greedy? Do read carefully my first paragraph and give it some thought because the logic is off.
Stupid, wasteful, pointless, time will tell and the odds mean that a lot of crypto-currencies will likely fail. It's akin to gambling or 'playing' the stock market in many respects. Some people do it for the possible future financial rewards, some people do it for fun, some just find it interesting.
What's not to love about being able to sell out of one's product due to high demand, even if the product is inferior to the competition for its ostensible purpose? The 3rd parties also can sell out of their product without having to put in a lot more effort to differentiate their product from the competition. Basic GPU? Will sell for much higher than MSRP? Oh, I hate that, says 3rd party maker like Gigabyte. Uh huh. Investors also really don't like when their company's product is in high demand. They really hate that. Don't ask most anyone to not dance around inconvenient truths. There is moral integrity in selling things for more than they're worth (the basis of profit). It's not a scam at all.
Remember Ambrose Bierce's definition of the corporation? Well, now it's even worse: All of the benefits of personhood with none of the drawbacks. If a corporation hacks computers (like Google did to infect Apple products with evercookies) they get a slap on the wrist fine. If a real person does it they go to prison. Real people get sick, need sleep, and on and on.
Reality is, no matter how much people want to pretend otherwise, is that the foundation of the global economy is rapacious consumerist waste that is inextricably greedy, destructive, and amoral. Charity and other window dressings won't change this. Charity is like the lottery. It's a PR machine designed to sugarcoat harsh reality. Humanity has rewarded the aggressors for its entire history. Capitalism is social aggression that's structured to provide more perks, at least for some. Don't mistake an improved standard of living, especially one that is temporary (since we're destroying the planet's ecology in the process) for morality.
Diogenes said he walked around during the daytime with a lamp looking for an honest person. Nothing has changed. We all blithely support the same corruption that has always existed. And, yeah, it is now proven that the ballot boxes were stuffed in ancient Athens. So, even if we don't actively support the corruption it's supported for us, by our betters. Law's primary function is to establish and maintain elite privilege so even extra-legal things like ballot stuffing aren't the core issue. "Too rich to fail" = the too big to fail euphemism. How much we benefit from this "capitalism" (really plutocracy, which is socialism for the rich) due to the benefits of elitism are debatable but what isn't is that our planet can't take our consumption and waste, let alone people in vast swathes of China who try to breathe, drink the water, and eat the food.
A great example of the moral logic of the human is to look at the response to China having to hand-pollinate fruit trees because pollution and development has destroyed the pollinating insects. Tech enthusiasts get all excited about the potential of using drones to pollinate. That says all that needs to be said about human morality and next to no one notices or cares. Nero didn't actually fiddle while Rome burned but the rest of us are.
It's the same for everybody.
People who mine at home and have 5-10 didn't make the gpu prices go up it's the mining factories.
It's easy for them because all the risk is being taken by the dumb asses that pay for cloud mining.
If you buy hash rate you're the dumbest person in the world period.
With the money you are paying for set amount of hash rate you are paying for the hardware, their time to put it together and the electricity for the duration of the contract.
If you are very very very luck you might break even which I highly doubt.