Friday, July 27th 2018
Think VR Is Dying? It's Just Getting Started, Says HTC
Have you heard the news? Analyst reports are in and apparently, it's curtains for Virtual Reality (VR). Pardon us if we're not heeding the alarms. News of the so-called death of VR comes once a year and is greatly exaggerated.
That's not to say analyst VR forecasts don't have valuable information-they most certainly do. But we thought it would be helpful to look more closely and critically about how they came to their conclusions.Four Things You Should Know About the Analyst Forecasts
1) The start of "consumer VR" was driven primarily by mobile phone viewers like GearVR and Google Cardboard. As these have become less enticing (i.e. the VR experience isn't living up to consumer expectations), those units that were largely used as promotional devices for phone launches have dropped off.
2) Premium VR has solidified and ramped up over time, yet the major players have not released sales figures to substantiate the market momentum (read on for a key figure we are releasing today).
3) The overall VR experience continues to improve with the enhanced resolution and comfort of the HTC VIVE Pro, more titles, more accessories, and soon, less cables. Yet, the analysts aren't predicting a watershed moment based on these improvements.
4) Businesses are ramping up VR investment in a big way, especially in the location-based entertainment and training industries. These numbers don't hit consumer forecasts, and therefore, are not included in the reports.
What About Those VR Sales Numbers?
Ah yes, sales. Digital Trends wrote a report last week which dove into third-party Amazon data to show a steep drop in VIVE sales. This has been the case of most of the dread and panic pervading the internet about VR.
It's also not the whole story. There's a reason for this decline.
VIVE has paced at its highest sales velocity of all time, for weeks on end, and we sold out. For a consumer electronic product in its third calendar year, this continued trajectory is nearly unheard of.
Don't worry, though: we are ramping up production of the original VIVE and units will continue to roll out to online and retail over the coming weeks.
Reminder: These Things Take Time
More and more, as people begin to understand the possibilities for virtual applications, word of mouth will grow, and sales will continue their upward trajectory.
In the VR industry, it's important to not only move units, but to ensure that we have a growth path for customers and our business over time.
That is why we're happy to see intelligence firms like International Data Corporation (IDC) get it right. They analyzed VR revenue share and show VIVE as the leader in the space, which means our investments are paying off for consumers and businesses. It means customers have more to do with their VR headsets and it means businesses see a path toward earning money themselves. It's exactly where we want to be.We believe VIVE offers the best in premium VR, whether PC-based or Stand-alone (AIOs).
Our stand-alone product, VIVE Focus, is gaining traction rapidly since its China launch. It's the number one stand-alone in China, and our WaveVR platform runs on three of the top four AIOs in China. We'll have much more on Focus soon as we bring that product to additional markets.
Source:
VIVE Blog
That's not to say analyst VR forecasts don't have valuable information-they most certainly do. But we thought it would be helpful to look more closely and critically about how they came to their conclusions.Four Things You Should Know About the Analyst Forecasts
1) The start of "consumer VR" was driven primarily by mobile phone viewers like GearVR and Google Cardboard. As these have become less enticing (i.e. the VR experience isn't living up to consumer expectations), those units that were largely used as promotional devices for phone launches have dropped off.
2) Premium VR has solidified and ramped up over time, yet the major players have not released sales figures to substantiate the market momentum (read on for a key figure we are releasing today).
3) The overall VR experience continues to improve with the enhanced resolution and comfort of the HTC VIVE Pro, more titles, more accessories, and soon, less cables. Yet, the analysts aren't predicting a watershed moment based on these improvements.
4) Businesses are ramping up VR investment in a big way, especially in the location-based entertainment and training industries. These numbers don't hit consumer forecasts, and therefore, are not included in the reports.
What About Those VR Sales Numbers?
Ah yes, sales. Digital Trends wrote a report last week which dove into third-party Amazon data to show a steep drop in VIVE sales. This has been the case of most of the dread and panic pervading the internet about VR.
It's also not the whole story. There's a reason for this decline.
VIVE has paced at its highest sales velocity of all time, for weeks on end, and we sold out. For a consumer electronic product in its third calendar year, this continued trajectory is nearly unheard of.
Don't worry, though: we are ramping up production of the original VIVE and units will continue to roll out to online and retail over the coming weeks.
Reminder: These Things Take Time
More and more, as people begin to understand the possibilities for virtual applications, word of mouth will grow, and sales will continue their upward trajectory.
In the VR industry, it's important to not only move units, but to ensure that we have a growth path for customers and our business over time.
That is why we're happy to see intelligence firms like International Data Corporation (IDC) get it right. They analyzed VR revenue share and show VIVE as the leader in the space, which means our investments are paying off for consumers and businesses. It means customers have more to do with their VR headsets and it means businesses see a path toward earning money themselves. It's exactly where we want to be.We believe VIVE offers the best in premium VR, whether PC-based or Stand-alone (AIOs).
Our stand-alone product, VIVE Focus, is gaining traction rapidly since its China launch. It's the number one stand-alone in China, and our WaveVR platform runs on three of the top four AIOs in China. We'll have much more on Focus soon as we bring that product to additional markets.
87 Comments on Think VR Is Dying? It's Just Getting Started, Says HTC
Rather wishful thinking than an honest prediction or fact-based statement. So far its flopping hard even for early adopter tech.
The real facts on VR remain: clumsy, bulky equipment, reduced mobility, increased physical and mental strain, barely useful for competitive gaming, high hardware requirements... None of these problems are in any way close to a solution.
And after all that, there is price.
I'm terribly shocked.
For gaming? I'd rather see more resources focused on good content and for VR, good content is much harder to make. Seems wasteful, as you do have to deal with all of VR's drawbacks.
Its funny reading the article and all you see is relative numbers and %. Not a single absolute sales number, or revenue, or profit, or units moved.
VR would take off if they dropped the walking and moving nonsense and just mass adapted it for the games we already have and with minimal effort for games that are around the corner. Just so you have independent viewport via head tracking and pure immersion since you only see ingame stuff and no room or monitor. You'd still play games with keyboard and mouse. There would still be a cost issue, but everyone would justify it easier if you had gazillion games for it instead of few 10 adapted for the VR or even made for it specifically. Just imagine all the racing, shooting and FRP games using headset for viewing of the ingame world and perfect immersion of VR headset. I know even I'd think about it. But not a chance in form they are trying to sell it to us now.
I mean, just imagine Alien:Isolation where you play it just the same as on monitor, but with VR headset. And you can look around when hiding in closet just by moving head around instead of holding some mouse button and moving mouse around. Or tilting your head to the side for peeking around corners. I never use this in games because I'm lazy and can't be bothered binding keys for it around arrow keys that I use. With headset, it would become a natural thing. I just can't believe companies who piss away millions for R&D didn't think of any of this. It's just baffling to no end.
I honestly don't know of any VR game that actually made money. Without engines supporting both styles interchangeably, VR isn't going to gain traction in gaming just because of the costs associated with it.
VR Tech still has opportunities with the displays, refresh rates, and wireless. Not to mention GPU power to keep up with it. We'll get there soon enough. But still delivers an experience when you're actually playing albeit on a basic level.
Currently VR is more of a complimentary accessory and not a main component just like having a Fully decked out racing rig for your PC. Not required but enhances the experience with supporting apps and games.
Its great for sims racing flying etc.
Ive never bought any apps or "turret games" I don't want to kick and punch the air or my TV on accident.
I think most of the marketing is wrong too.
VR is here it doesn't have to "take off"
Its just not for "everything"
Hating on it is just dumb.
The need for more realism is why we fall for the 3D/VR fads every 10-20 years. We hope we're there. Every time.