Thursday, September 20th 2018

NVIDIA Stock Falls 2.1% After Turing GPU Reviews Fail to Impress Morgan Stanley

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VSG
 Discuss (96 Comments)
NVIDIA's embargo on their Turing-based RTX 2080 and RTX 2080 Ti ended Wednesday, September 19 and it appears that enthusiasts were not the only ones left wanting more from these graphics cards. In particular, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore shared a note today (Thursday, September 20) with company clients saying "As review embargos broke for the new gaming products, performance improvements in older games is not the leap we had initially hoped for. Performance boost on older games that do not incorporate advanced features is somewhat below our initial expectations, and review recommendations are mixed given higher price points." The NVIDIA Corporation share value on the NASDAQ exchange had closed at $271.98 (USD) Wednesday and immediately tumbled down to a low of $264.10 opening today before recovering to close at $266.28, down 2.1% over the previous closure.

The Morgan Stanley report further mentioned that "We are surprised that the 2080 is only slightly better than the 1080ti, which has been available for over a year and is slightly less expensive. With higher clock speeds, higher core count, and 40% higher memory bandwidth, we had expected a bigger boost." Accordingly, the market analyst expects a slower adoption of these new GPUs as well as no expectation of "much upside" from NVIDIA's gaming business unit for the next two quarters. Despite all this, Morgan Stanley remains bullish on NVIDIA and expects a $273 price point in the long term.
Source: CNBC

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96 Comments on NVIDIA Stock Falls 2.1% After Turing GPU Reviews Fail to Impress Morgan Stanley

#51
Vya Domus
ShurikNAfter old stock clears out, Nvidia will come out with next gen cards on 7nm, with more rt cores, more tensor cores, less power, more clocks etc. And those will actually run RT stuff the way it was meant.
I will venture to say even the next generation won't offer a proper level of performance as far as ray tracing goes. I doubt Nvidia will miss out on the opportunity that 7nm entails to reduce die space and cost, they won't massively increase RT core count and end up with yet another mammoth die.
Posted on Reply
#52
Recus
So wait, after constantly bashing Nvidia for not having proper DX12/Async/Vulkan support because nobody cares about DX11 now same people are angry because RTX 2080 not 30% faster than GTX 1080 Ti in old games?

Posted on Reply
#54
Bytales
Ofcourse Performance is below expectations, while Price is even higher. Ist called milking the fools. Which is why i wont buy another Nvidia Product ever again. Unless they give me their Cards for free. I cant turn free computing Silicon, now can't I ?
Posted on Reply
#55
HD64G
Comparing custom to custom models of 2080Ti and 1080Ti, performance results of @W1zzard reviews show that the difference is at 30% on average @4K. For a much more expensive GPU (about 70-80% higher price), it is a market failure even if it has much more features. Never before a new gen made such a decrease in vfm compared to the previous one. And the fact that nVidia didn't want to canibalise their Pascal products that are in big stock yet and decided to climb the price of RTX series so much higher it should be their problem only and the sensible customers should be far and away from this gen until they heavily drop in price. But, as always there are the rich or elitist customers and the fanboys that are milked as usual.
Posted on Reply
#56
StrayKAT
Vya DomusConsidering how over inflated their share price is this is nothing.



They do know what is good for them and it turns out it's not high-end consumer GPUs.
That was good for them.. but I think Nvidia left a possible opening for them with this.
Posted on Reply
#57
SIGSEGV
techy1or Nvidia will come out with a driver update that will decrease (for Pascal and older) performance by atleast 25%
damn, it reminds me of 900 gen fiasco! oh crap, we need AMD to counter this evil practice. :banghead::respect:
hello AMD??
Posted on Reply
#58
moproblems99
Liquid CoolI didn't have the money at the time, so I had to watch a nice Sapphire RX 570 go off auction at 87 bucks the other day.

That's pain...:).
l
Yeah, consider having 6 580s sitting on your shelf doing nothing...
Posted on Reply
#59
blibba
Durvelle27So now the question becomes, “Who didn’t see this coming” ?
The very fact that there was a stock market adjustment implies that nobody saw this coming - or certainly nobody with leverageable assets. Otherwise, they would have shorted the stock to the point where this did not impact its value.

Remember that market price adjustments can only ever be the result of novel information. This is why prices can sometimes go up after bad news - the market expected worse.
Posted on Reply
#60
Unregistered
Very glad to see this. Would love to see Nvidia's stock drop even further due to this release.

It's not that the 2000 series is "bad", it's imply bad for the pricing they're asking - performance is just completely unacceptable for the price premium they're asking. It's like releasing a toilet that flushes just a little better than the previous model, but marking up the price 70%. Just utterly ridiculous and I'm glad major businesses are taking notice and acting accordingly. Hope Turing sells like total $hit and forces a price drop into "acceptable" ranges.
Posted on Edit | Reply
#61
ppn
Well GTX 280 dropped 650$ to 350$ 6 months later. 2080 is repeating 280. 576 mm² 1,400 MTr, now 545 mm² 13,600 Mtr, and even bigger Ti chip. So expect 300$ Off soon. Except 8GB GDDR6 on 2080 costs 200$ alone. Besides 2070 should be nearly as fast as 1080ti in new titles using async compute Int32 cores, even faster. Hell 2080ti is 2x faster than 1080ti in new tomb raider. Everybody is attacking nvida and why, they did an amazing job with this gen, that is how you know. Ppl just want it that badly.
Posted on Reply
#62
rtwjunkie
PC Gaming Enthusiast
Smartcom5You're able to establish another proprietary nVidia-only standard à la PhysX GameWorks, also just en passant
… since PhysX, then Tesselation, then HairWorks then G-Sync didn't really paid out for you as people look through your shitty attempt in dividing the market and tighten your closed ecosystem
It’s not proprietary. RTX is merely Nvidia’s rendition of ray-tracing, which is enabled in DX12 by MICROSOFT. Thus, anyone is free to develop on it.
Posted on Reply
#63
R-T-B
FordGT90Concept2.1% is it? Expected a bigger drop.
Indeed, honestly, that's nothing.
rtwjunkieIt’s not proprietary. RTX is merely Nvidia’s rendition of ray-tracing, which is enabled in DX12 by MICROSOFT. Thus, anyone is free to develop on it.
True, but the machine learning bits that make it basically able to happen are pretty much NVIDIA's proprietary baby.
Posted on Reply
#64
DeathtoGnomes
R-T-BIndeed, honestly, that's nothing.
2.1% drop from $279 is a big chunk of change when it comes to the stock market.
Posted on Reply
#65
R-T-B
DeathtoGnomes2.1% drop from $279 is a big chunk of change when it comes to the stock market.
I guess I'm to used to crypto swings...

But seriously, given the dissapointing release, I don't see it as that huge.
Posted on Reply
#66
Xzibit
It dropped another 1.06% today.

If it keeps dropping pass 5% it might be concerning.
Posted on Reply
#67
moproblems99
R-T-BI guess I'm to used to crypto swings...

But seriously, given the dissapointing release, I don't see it as that huge.
I thought it was disappointing initially but, actually, it is brilliant. They already have a stock pile of the previous generation that are as good, if not better, than the competition depending on use case. Now, they released a product that basically costs twice as much with a feature that you can't test and benchmark until long after people buy it. That feature, to top it off, is basically useless because no one plays at 1080 when they are the type that purchases top tier.

So, they will probably have a limited availability because the dies are so large and yields will be poor but they get to completely test the arch and RTX AND make a large profit doing it because they priced it so high. Meanwhile, everyone that doesn't want terrible value to go with high performance will buy all the stock of the previous generation greater than MSRP. Following that, 10n, or 7n, whatever they end up using will be ready and they can release this same product on the node shrink and gain even more performance without having to develop another arch. Plus, the enhancements they will get by switching nodes and some enhancements they learn from this beta test will allow the RTX tech to be useful when 3000 series can go.

They will get to sell out all their old stock without having to drop prices, sell all the 2000 series at insane prices, and beta test RTX all in one go.

Posted on Reply
#68
hat
Enthusiast
moproblems99I thought it was disappointing initially but, actually, it is brilliant. They already have a stock pile of the previous generation that are as good, if not better, than the competition depending on use case. Now, they released a product that basically costs twice as much with a feature that you can't test and benchmark until long after people buy it. That feature, to top it off, is basically useless because no one plays at 1080 when they are the type that purchases top tier.

So, they will probably have a limited availability because the dies are so large and yields will be poor but they get to completely test the arch and RTX AND make a large profit doing it because they priced it so high. Meanwhile, everyone that doesn't want terrible value to go with high performance will buy all the stock of the previous generation greater than MSRP. Following that, 10n, or 7n, whatever they end up using will be ready and they can release this same product on the node shrink and gain even more performance without having to develop another arch. Plus, the enhancements they will get by switching nodes and some enhancements they learn from this beta test will allow the RTX tech to be useful when 3000 series can go.

They will get to sell out all their old stock without having to drop prices, sell all the 2000 series at insane prices, and beta test RTX all in one go.
If I could like this post 10 times I would. I was thinking the same thing, but you put it into words better than I...
Posted on Reply
#69
FYFI13
Not sure who's Morgan Stanley, but I'm definitely skipping this gen. RTX looks cool on the pictures that Nvidia have posted but that's all we have right now.
Posted on Reply
#70
Minus Infinity
Good news. 2 years wait for this overpriced product that's foisting tech on us that will barely be available in all but a few games even by the time the next gen cards are ready. AMD can make a lot of headway if they play their cards right with the 7nm Vega updates. I'll bet 1080 Ti sales go through the roof after this let down.
Posted on Reply
#71
Zubasa
ppnWell GTX 280 dropped 650$ to 350$ 6 months later. 2080 is repeating 280. 576 mm² 1,400 MTr, now 545 mm² 13,600 Mtr, and even bigger Ti chip. So expect 300$ Off soon. Except 8GB GDDR6 on 2080 costs 200$ alone. Besides 2070 should be nearly as fast as 1080ti in new titles using async compute Int32 cores, even faster. Hell 2080ti is 2x faster than 1080ti in new tomb raider. Everybody is attacking nvida and why, they did an amazing job with this gen, that is how you know. Ppl just want it that badly.
The problem with that, nVidia is charging that much because they can.
They have ZERO reason to lower prices right now.
Why would any company want to make less money when they can make more?
Posted on Reply
#72
Vayra86
RecusSo wait, after constantly bashing Nvidia for not having proper DX12/Async/Vulkan support because nobody cares about DX11 now same people are angry because RTX 2080 not 30% faster than GTX 1080 Ti in old games?

As far as I recall it was only disgruntled AMD fans that bashed Nvidia for lacking async and telling us that it was such a great feature to have... while in real life the performance difference is zero. Similarly, the great advancement in draw calls AMD excelled at.... never seen translated into additional ingame performance except in AoTS. Realistically, DX12 adoption is still virtually non existant because even the games that do use it are either unstable or perform worse than the DX11 implementation.

The argument now is that 'but it was never native DX12 so ofc it doesn't get better'... sure thing. Let's stick with that for the coming year or two as an excuse :)

Meanwhile, even DX9 games still exist and they are no worse for it either. API is irrelevant. Only content and actual performance matters. And in that, RTX offers little to nothing new.
moproblems99I thought it was disappointing initially but, actually, it is brilliant. They already have a stock pile of the previous generation that are as good, if not better, than the competition depending on use case. Now, they released a product that basically costs twice as much with a feature that you can't test and benchmark until long after people buy it. That feature, to top it off, is basically useless because no one plays at 1080 when they are the type that purchases top tier.

So, they will probably have a limited availability because the dies are so large and yields will be poor but they get to completely test the arch and RTX AND make a large profit doing it because they priced it so high. Meanwhile, everyone that doesn't want terrible value to go with high performance will buy all the stock of the previous generation greater than MSRP. Following that, 10n, or 7n, whatever they end up using will be ready and they can release this same product on the node shrink and gain even more performance without having to develop another arch. Plus, the enhancements they will get by switching nodes and some enhancements they learn from this beta test will allow the RTX tech to be useful when 3000 series can go.

They will get to sell out all their old stock without having to drop prices, sell all the 2000 series at insane prices, and beta test RTX all in one go.

Correct, its brilliant for Nvidia, and for consumers its practically standing still for 3-4 years. For longer term, I do agree with you, I guess we'll take anything for granted though because what other options do we have? :D
Posted on Reply
#73
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
Vayra86As far as I recall it was only disgruntled AMD fans that bashed Nvidia for lacking async and telling us that it was such a great feature to have... while in real life the performance difference is zero.
ReLive. Doesn't matter the game, the impact on fps is negligble (<4%). Amazing considering how much of a burden HEVC/AVC encoding is.
Posted on Reply
#75
HTC
The shoe's on the other foot now. Usually, it's AMD that comes up with something new and has to wait for games to use it to take full advantage of any speed-ups it enables. With RTX, it's nVidia's turn to wait for games to use it so they can have that advantage. AMD has had many problems with their instances: let's see how nVidia fares with theirs.

I see two problems with nVidia's approach:

1 - RTX seems to be only for top end cards which accounts for quite a minority of the whole cards ecosystem, so i seriously doubt game developers will spend so much resources for the benefit of the very few

2 - by pricing the cards that have RTX so high, it only exacerbates the problem of #1 because it drives away potential buyers. Most people will skip 2080 because it's performance is mostly tied with 1080 Ti while the 2080 is quite a bit more expensive (assuming they already have a 1080 Ti) and the 2080 Ti is far too pricey
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