I'm still curious what the nature of all of these Intel problems are.

Yes Intel has let its tech fall behind TSMC a bit but they're still among the top fans of the world.

I do think there is the falling luxury goods market in general (notice how ARM, Qualcomm, Intel and NVidia are all down). But Intels stock change is especially worse than even it's peers....

dragontamer5788Here's the reality: Americans Consumer Demand is dropping across the board. That's fewer McDonalds Big Macs, fewer Starbucks Coffee, less Amazon Sales, fewer iPhones, less Intel, less everything.

The companies doing well, are those known for value. Costco and other wholesalers (cheaper + quality) are winning right now. This only happens when we as a country suddenly become worried about personal finances (which historically, only happens when people are running out of money / savings and have started taking on credit card debt). I'm not going to say we're necessarily in a decline or whatever, but the economic situation is fraught right now. The market is trying to see how bad things are in general.

Eventually the bears will be correct. The bears have been wrong for 10+ years (lol, "tech bubble" has been called since 2005 or earlier, but its never happened). But this time around, I'm seeing real economic data that gives me at least a pause.

Next-generation high-technology (like Intel, Qualcomm, Apple, etc. etc.) are luxuries. We all know we can live without this stuff. We buy them because they're cool and future looking and with the hopes of getting slight edges over competitors (or to play newer video games, etc. etc.). Such luxuries are the first thing people will cut out of their budgets. People will go one more year before upgrading their iPhone, people will hold onto their old laptops to save a bit of money this year, etc. etc. That's the new mindset of the market and economy.

Is that enough for a real decline? Am I a bear? Not really. But I'm holding my defensive / conservative portfolio for now. I'm not expecting a decline, but I'll be prepared for one if it comes into existence.

Has intel already spun the manufacturing arm off, just like AMD was forced by intel's shenanigans 20 years ago to spin GlobalFoundries off?


BTW, we are moving from uni-polar, single-pole world dominated by G8, to multi-polar world with many economic centres, namely BRICS, G7, EAEU, ASEAN, etc.

Also, the semiconductors business should go downward spiralling, because the new wafers are extremely expensive, and the generation cadence rises from 1 year to 2 years, 3 years and more.
Of course, that people will not spend, because there will be no initiative to do so. With small, incremental updates, and worsening product stacks - rising power consumption, use of lower quality materials, etc.

It's coming.

www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/02/fear-of-us-recession-rattles-global-markets-as-tech-shares-fall

everything crashes and then one world currency

natr0neverything crashes and then one world currency

No

"by posting updates on how its 5N4Y (five silicon fabrication nodes in four years) plan is nearing completion"
Yet they again decided tu use TSMC to manufacture their new CPUs.

We’re really digressing into speculation here. It’s far more simple, had Intel been able to offer stronger guidance, their stocks would be fine. However, there is sufficient evidence that they might have issues even supplying existing chips to the market. The future of Raptor Lake is in the balance with lawsuits and warranty claims looming. Meteor Lake has poor yields, resulting in more wasteful production to meet supply. Arc graphics is a perennial money loser. When a company is on the ropes like that, the best thing they can do is point to their future, and Intel went and announced a 10B cut to operations with a 15% layoff. None of that garners investor confidence.

ChaitanyaNot just Intel but entire stock market has collapsed thanks to fears of recession.
www.cnbc.com/2024/08/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Market is down 2% yet Intel is down 26%.
That's a difference

natr0neverything crashes and then one world currency

The us dollar is a vapour bubble currency backed simply by words and promises, or in reality nothing.
We really need currencies that are backed by something real, like gold, or lithium.

I cant say I am surprised. Intel does have a history of swindling their customers.

Knowingly sending bad product out the door is just opening yourself up to trouble.

Don't kid yourself, they knew.

Why_MeIt's coming.

www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/02/fear-of-us-recession-rattles-global-markets-as-tech-shares-fall

Its _VERY_ premature to call this a recession. We're still making jobs, just fewer jobs than expected.

The softening economy is still a concern though, especially for Intel. "Not as much growth" as expected means fewer people buying computers, especially servers which are Intel's cash cow.

People are far more worried about money + personal finances right now. Its clear that the typical American average-joe has less money in the bank account today than last year. Whether this leads to a recession or not is still to be seen. But I think it is safe to say that people will be spending less than expected on high-tech items like computers.

dragontamer5788We're still making jobs, just fewer jobs than expected.

Interesting. But the devil is in the details. You create jobs based on printing money which you don't have, and your debt has just risen over 35-trillion, the credit agencies begin to dislike this and downgrade the countries' ratings.

ARFInteresting. But the devil is in the details. You create jobs based on printing money which you don't have, and your debt has just risen over 35-billion, the credit agencies begin to dislike this and downgrade the countries ratings.

M2 money supply has been in decline for 2 years now, actually.

All of these jobs we made are in a shrinking monetary base.




IE: We've been destroying money for 2 years now. The economy has been overheated (see inflation), and the banks have been trying to stop that for literally years.

dragontamer5788I'm still curious what the nature of all of these Intel problems are.

Brian Krzanich
He thought, that AMD is no more competition, and focused on high dividends and R&D cuts. Then not only AMD managed to reinvent itself, but also TSMC and ARM became even harder competitor. Also he abandoned GPU and now they are years behind nVidia and AMD while GPU is more profitable than CPU.
Then he faked an affair with employee and resigned. then there was Bob swan, having no clue what to do. And 5N4Y is simply too little too late.
This is a great lessons for investors. When a CEO focuses on high dividends and sacrifice R&D it will cause shares to go up in a short term, but then they will collapse.

Why_MeIt's coming.

www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/02/fear-of-us-recession-rattles-global-markets-as-tech-shares-fall

OT.

ARFThe us dollar is a vapour bubble currency backed simply by words and promises, or in reality nothing.
We really need currencies that are backed by something real, like gold, or lithium.

Dude we tried the gold standard and it lead to the great depression. This is so OT, why can't you guys just behave?

R-T-BOT.


Dude we tried the gold standard and it lead to the great depression. This is so OT, why can't you guys just behave?

Off topic? It goes to the very heart of the OP RE tech stocks are taking a beating.

Why_MeOff topic? It goes to the very heart of the OP RE tech stocks are taking a beating.

The topic is actually Intel's 25% beating not the 2% down tech stocks and you know it.

R-T-Bwe tried the gold standard and it lead to the great depression

Wrong.

There is no consensus among economists and historians regarding the exact causes of the Great Depression. However, many scholars agree that at least the following four factors played a role.

www.britannica.com/story/causes-of-the-great-depression

R-T-BThe topic is actually Intel's 25% beating not the 2% down tech stocks and you know it.

Last time I checked Intel was a tech stock. Granted Intel is taking the biggest beating of them all but tech stocks across the board are dropping.

ARFWrong.



www.britannica.com/story/causes-of-the-great-depression

REASON 3: The gold standard.

Wrong or right it's still the wrong place man.

Why_MeLast time I checked Intel was a tech stock. Granted Intel is taking the biggest beating of them all but tech stocks across the board are dropping.

By 2%. And again, what's this threads title?

R-T-BThe topic is actually Intel's 25% beating not the 2% down tech stocks and you know it.

I do think a "little" bit of recession (or slowdown) talk is appropriate given Intel's position as a luxury / quality goods maker.

People buy Intel Xeon because its a high performance server at (what should be) lower power than the competition. But its a bit more $$$$ than ARM or AMD. Of course, AMD has been grossly improving its quality (both performance and watts). So that's a big reason for Intel's seeming decline.

But we probably shouldn't go overboard on economic topics. You're right that by the time I'm posting about M2 and stuff we're too far away from the core topic.

-------

Luxury goods decline as people get worried about their personal finance. People will buy so called "inferior goods", goods that they know are lower-quality but offer a better price-efficiency. So I think Intel is poorly positioned in a hypothetical recession (or slowdown). In contrast, AMD has a reputation for both cheaper and somehow gained a reputation of higher-quality among many enthusiasts... despite coming in at a lower cost. AMD is your traditional "inferior good" (in terms of economics) that would benefit from economic slowdowns.

R-T-BWrong or right it's still the wrong place man.

This is an economics thread. What exactly will you write about?
Stay alone, then. Bye :D

ARFThis is an economics thread. What exactly will you write about?

I dunno, Intels stock and market plans? Ya know, tech things.

closeYou're probably referring to AT and I think the top "brown noser" there was definitely Ian Cutress. If praising Intel with all the superlatives for a a few performance increase year over year, almost all from higher clocks wasn't already clear which pocket his journalistic integrity was sitting in, or quickly writing an article every time someone at Intel fed him a BS line (like praising Intel for the exceptional 9900KS which will 100% be 5GHz on all cores all the time, only to discover days later he had been taken for a fool again), the whole 28-core 5GHz Xeon under a chiller story really brought his servility front and center.

After again publishing a stellar piece on Intel's demo of the all new 28-core Xeon running standard at 5GHz in what appeared to be a very normal setup (and patting his own back for being invited to see more than most journalists), it turned out it was under heavy OC, and with a 1HP chiller hidden under the table. So his reaction as a journalist with integrity confronting Intel's deceit was to call it an announcement that was not ideally communicated, and despite being taken for a fool still found it in his heart to kiss the boot and praise Intel because "it actually takes a good amount of engineering prowess and skill to put on a 28-core, 5.0 GHz demonstration".

As I said it elsewhere, I'm not too surprised he's been wallowing in semi-obscurity ever since being unceremoniously shown the door at AT. Those industry connections he polished boots for weren't worth that much after all. Too little too late for AT though, the guy single-handedly tanked their trustworthiness. Hard to come back from that even years later.

I could agree on doctor IC from AT, but IMHO, RS was the champion in brown-nosing at Intel via his rants on PCPer. Later on, he became Intel's PPTX master :D
And, it is no secret that Intel has MDF division who "sponsored" many many tech reviewers up to date. Last of their "warriors" for instance is that german apologist Der8auer. Every time Intel has some shit hit the fan, Roman find some problems with his AMD based platform :D
LTT jumped ship 1-2 years ago.

trparkyNope, not bringing politics into this thread. I don't need any warning points today.

Has nothing to do with it anyway.