Friday, July 8th 2011

Foundry Delays to Push Back NVIDIA Kepler Launch to 2012

It looks like foundry issues are back to slow down the launch of NVIDIA's next generation high-end GPU, codenamed Kepler. The delay may push Kepler's launch to 2012, it was expected to launch by late 2011. The 28 nanometer silicon fabrication process at TSMC, a principal foundry partner of NVIDIA, is producing unsatisfactory yields. Add to that, Kepler's performance is lower than expected.

TSMC's 28 nm process at Fab 15 facility has already seen delays, which have even shaped AMD's designs in a big way. AMD had originally planned to design high-end VLIW4 chips on the 32 nm process at TSMC, but later decided to wait for the 28 nm process, leading to plans of 32 nm GPUs being scrapped by both GPU designers. TSMC was supposed to be in a position take orders of high-end 28 nm GPUs by Q4 2011, and was set to start pilot production for its 20nm process technology in the third quarter of 2012.

TSMC's major client apart from GPU vendors, that relies on new bulk manufacturing process, Qualcomm, hasn't yet adjusted its 28nm process schedule and is set to launch three new products, 8960. 8270 and 8260A using dual-core Krait architecture in the fourth quarter of 2011.

AMD's first 28 nm GPUs, under the "Southern Islands" family are on course for 1H 2012. Around the same time, AMD will also release APUs based on the 28 nm process, codenamed "Krishna" and "Wichita", that replace Ontraio and Zacate.
Source: DigiTimes
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76 Comments on Foundry Delays to Push Back NVIDIA Kepler Launch to 2012

#26
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
largonLooks like 40nm might reign for three whole years.
Well there's been a tremendous progress in this field. I'm not too worried about this. I mean it'd be nice if it'd be here quicker, but we'll manage. The gaming industry is kinda deadish now anyway, the real loss is in GPGPU applications.
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#27
Trackr
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.............................
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#28
Yellow&Nerdy?
Well, if this is the case, I'll build my rig as soon as Bulldozer comes out and I know how it fares against Intel's offerings, mostly SB. Seems like TSMC is messing up everytime a shrink happens... Nvidia doesn't really have other options, but AMD in my opinion should give GloFo a chance if TSMC continues in this fashion.
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#29
Hustler
You know, if you add up all the delays caused by foundry issues ove the last decade, we would probably already be on Nvidia's follow up to Maxwell GPU's by now, never mind Kepler....:)
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#30
TheGuruStud
seronxi guess nvidia couldn't take the heat

www.marketvortex.net/images/david_caruso_sunglasses.jpg
yyyeeeeeeaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!
Yellow&Nerdy?Well, if this is the case, I'll build my rig as soon as Bulldozer comes out and I know how it fares against Intel's offerings, mostly SB. Seems like TSMC is messing up everytime a shrink happens... Nvidia doesn't really have other options, but AMD in my opinion should give GloFo a chance if TSMC continues in this fashion.
Isn't GloFo already at max capacity?
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#31
HalfAHertz
I think TSMC are purposfully slowing down their advancement cycle because they're trying to come up with a technology that will keep them in business after they reach 16nm. Things can be scaled only so far for now...
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#32
WhiteLotus
HalfAHertzI think TSMC are purposfully slowing down their advancement cycle because they're trying to come up with a technology that will keep them in business after they reach 16nm. Things can be scaled only so far for now...
That's a very good point. They can only do that and once they have hit 16nm that's pretty much it. Unless they go for true dual cores instead of dual chips on a GPU board.

Or they move over to graphene instead of silicone.
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#33
wolf
Better Than Native
CasecutterWolf, wolf… boy! :rolleyes:
huh? who?

well this doesnt really bother me until new games start to make my GTX570 cry, which is really few and far between. and even if you lower a setting here and there, a current mid/high end PC will crap all over current gen consoles (in terms of res/IQ) for a while to come.
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#34
DaedalusHelios
CasecutterWolf, wolf… boy! :rolleyes:

Again TSMC has to be the scapegoat, that what you get when your the principal foundry partner for Nvidia.
They work with both Nvidia and AMD. And what do you think they honestly have to do with it? Its like ordering a catered lunch for your business and they are late delivering the food. But you would blame the business being catered to for some reason. :laugh:
WhiteLotusThat's a very good point. They can only do that and once they have hit 16nm that's pretty much it. Unless they go for true dual cores instead of dual chips on a GPU board.

Or they move over to graphene instead of silicone.
Carbon nanotubes. :D
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#35
ensabrenoir
pestilenceintel needs to buy nvidia so they can produce kepler. God it would rock on intel's process.
+1
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#36
bear jesus
This really sucks, not so much that Nvidia has been delayed again but that AMD has not been.
I skipped the 5xxx and 4xx generation as after having to wait so long to see how Fermi did against Cypress that i gave up and waited a few more months for the next generation.

I know to most it's not much of an issue due to to having cards that can handle all current games but anyone who games on a triple screen setup will be with me in wanting more power, i could go crossfire/sli but the heat would kill me :laugh: thus my want for a 28nm chip.

I was really hoping that both AMD and Nvidia would launch the high end cards close together and Nvidia's card to be able to run 3 monitors from a single chip card, now i just hope this situation does not turn in to the one with Fermi and i assume so far its kind of like it as i would assume due to AMD not being delayed its Nvidia's architecture/chip size/design/whatever causing the problems with the yield of Kepler chips when using 28nm and not TSMC's issue.... although i guess could be a TSMC issue that AMD's design avoided... i have no idea.....
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#37
dj-electric
Id say Nvidia will lunch their GTX600 in april, probably @ the press conf in san-diego
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#38
Flibolito
Dj-ElectriCId say Nvidia will lunch their GTX600 in april, probably @ the press conf in san-diego
+1

As far as manufacturing goes the "3D" transistor setup Intel is laying the foundation for will eventually let us get more out of the chips. Slower clock speeds at first but you can fit tons of them on a Die and transistor count matters as much as clock-speed.
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#39
BazookaJoe
..."Waiting for poorer then expected sales to clear out our stockpile of old crap, before we launch the new thing" delays to Push Back NVIDIA Kepler Launch to 2012...

Yeah, we're not as stupid as you think nVidia...
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#40
treehouse
BazookaJoe..."Waiting for poorer then expected sales to clear out our stockpile of old crap, before we launch the new thing" delays to Push Back NVIDIA Kepler Launch to 2012...

Yeah, we're not as stupid as you think nVidia...
glad am not the only one who thinks this :toast:
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#41
kaktus1907
Crap DaddyThere is no need for more powerful GPUs soon as the PC gaming industry continues to produce DX9 games that run perfectly well on three year old hardware. I don't see that change until next gen consoles are out. And that's gonna be faaaar away.
hmm apparently you have never heard of SGSSAA, Downsampling, 3D or even Eyefinity right ?
:rolleyes:
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#42
Recus
AMD and their fanboys actually believes that World end will be in 2012. Nvidia's don't. So, they don't see reason release Kepler in 2011. AMD haste can be explained in simple way: HD6000 can't counter with GTX500. Problem?
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#43
dj-electric
Troll post is troll? have you seen the sales on HD6800 and HD6900 GPUS? or you just hatin cuz you like it?
or maybe you are one of those people who think that if the strongest single-GPU belongs to NV they win @ the whole GPU market and make AMD obsolete
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#44
TheoneandonlyMrK
CasecutterFrom most accounts the news for AMD's Southern Islands is that it is on track
not at all their 1 year late already, as will nvidia be when kepler is released both are new core and shader designs and very complex so it surprises me not, especially when so much old gpu stock is floating around,
also why we are and will see 6870x2 and 460x2 etc and others, gettin some stock chips effin shipped n quick

this does mean to me that the next gen gpu's will have to be really quite something as out the gate they are going to have to beat 6870x2's and what not, to get sold, simples, and no new dx12 or anything to push them
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#45
Assimilator
BazookaJoe..."Waiting for poorer then expected sales to clear out our stockpile of old crap, before we launch the new thing" delays to Push Back NVIDIA Kepler Launch to 2012...

Yeah, we're not as stupid as you think nVidia...
"Poorer than expected sales"? Do you have any actual evidence for this, or are you just blowing smoke out of your ATI-loving ass?
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#46
TheoneandonlyMrK
Assimilator"Poorer than expected sales"? Do you have any actual evidence for this, or are you just blowing smoke out of your ATI-loving ass?
recession ahem both ATI and nvidia are down on expected sales
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#47
Benetanegia
Dj-ElectriCTroll post is troll? have you seen the sales on HD6800 and HD6900 GPUS? or you just hatin cuz you like it?
or maybe you are one of those people who think that if the strongest single-GPU belongs to NV they win @ the whole GPU market and make AMD obsolete
Well I'm not wanting to take sides, because he is mostly trolling.

But the truth is that currently Nvidia is comfortably outselling AMD competing offerings:

store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/

Look at DX11 card section:

Format= card name (last month increase)(total share of DX11 cards)

GTX460 (+0.98%)(13.03%) vs HD6850 (-0.17%)(2.02%)
GTX560 (+0.89%)(3.46%) vs HD6950 (+0.32%)(2.54%) vs HD6870 (+0.12%)(2.38%)
GTX570 (+0.49%)(2.77%) vs HD6970 (+0.07%)(1.26%)
GTX580 (+0.20%)(2.47%) vs no product

I don't know what you think but it does look like a beating to me. So AMD does need new cards to fuel stronger sales. Much more than Nvidia does.
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#48
Recus
Dj-ElectriCTroll post is troll? have you seen the sales on HD6800 and HD6900 GPUS? or you just hatin cuz you like it?
or maybe you are one of those people who think that if the strongest single-GPU belongs to NV they win @ the whole GPU market and make AMD obsolete
Enjoy giving a f**k? :shadedshu
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#49
Tatty_Two
Gone Fishing
BenetanegiaWell I'm not wanting to take sides, because he is mostly trolling.

But the truth is that currently Nvidia is comfortably outselling AMD competing offerings:

store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/

Look at DX11 card section:

Format= card name (last month increase)(total share of DX11 cards)

GTX460 (+0.98%)(13.03%) vs HD6850 (-0.17%)(2.02%)
GTX560 (+0.89%)(3.46%) vs HD6950 (+0.32%)(2.54%) vs HD6870 (+0.12%)(2.38%)
GTX570 (+0.49%)(2.77%) vs HD6970 (+0.07%)(1.26%)
GTX580 (+0.20%)(2.47%) vs no product

I don't know what you think but it does look like a beating to me. So AMD does need new cards to fuel stronger sales. Much more than Nvidia does.
To be honest, what it looks like to me is that NVidia is more popular with "some" Steam users surely? That don't mean they are selling more cards though :p
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#50
Bjorn_Of_Iceland
Good.. that gives me one more year to save up before changing the GTX580 :D
Posted on Reply
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