Wednesday, May 22nd 2024
Qualcomm's Success with Windows AI PC Drawing NVIDIA Back to the Client SoC Business
NVIDIA is eying a comeback to the client processor business, reveals a Bloomberg interview with the CEOs of NVIDIA and Dell. For NVIDIA, all it takes is a simple driver update that exposes every GeForce GPU with tensor cores as an NPU to Windows 11, with translation layers to get popular client AI apps to work with TensorRT. But that would need you to have a discrete NVIDIA GPU. What about the vast market of Windows AI PCs powered by the likes of Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD, who each sell 15 W-class processors with integrated NPUs capable of 50 AI TOPS, which is all that Copilot+ needs? NVIDIA held an Arm license for decades now, and makes Arm-based CPUs to this day, with the NVIDIA Grace, however, that is a large server processor meant for its AI GPU servers.
NVIDIA already made client processors under the Tegra brand targeting smartphones, which it winded down last decade. It's since been making Drive PX processors for its automotive self-driving hardware division; and of course there's Grace. NVIDIA hinted that it might have a client CPU for the AI PC market in 2025. In the interview Bloomberg asked NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang a pointed question on whether NVIDIA has a place in the AI PC market. Dell CEO Michael Dell, who was also in the interview, interjected "come back next year," to which Jensen affirmed "exactly." Dell would be in a front-and-center position to know if NVIDIA is working on a new PC processor for launch in 2025, and Jensen's nod almost confirms this
NVIDIA has both the talent and the IP to whip up a PC processor—its teams behind Grace and Drive can create the Arm CPU cores, NVIDIA is already the big daddy of consumer graphics and should have little problem with the iGPU, and the NPU shouldn't be hard to create, either. It wouldn't surprise us if the NPU on NVIDIA's chip isn't a physical component, but a virtual device that uses the AI acceleration capabilities of the iGPU with its tensor cores, as a hardware backend.
NVIDIA's journey to the AI PC has one little hurdle, and that is the exclusivity Qualcomm enjoys with Microsoft for the current crop of Windows-on-Arm notebooks, with its Snapdragon X series chips. NVIDIA would have to work with Microsoft to have the same market access as Qualcomm.
If all goes well, the NVIDIA PC processor powering AI PCs will launch in 2025.
Sources:
Bloomberg (YouTube), Videocardz
NVIDIA already made client processors under the Tegra brand targeting smartphones, which it winded down last decade. It's since been making Drive PX processors for its automotive self-driving hardware division; and of course there's Grace. NVIDIA hinted that it might have a client CPU for the AI PC market in 2025. In the interview Bloomberg asked NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang a pointed question on whether NVIDIA has a place in the AI PC market. Dell CEO Michael Dell, who was also in the interview, interjected "come back next year," to which Jensen affirmed "exactly." Dell would be in a front-and-center position to know if NVIDIA is working on a new PC processor for launch in 2025, and Jensen's nod almost confirms this
NVIDIA's journey to the AI PC has one little hurdle, and that is the exclusivity Qualcomm enjoys with Microsoft for the current crop of Windows-on-Arm notebooks, with its Snapdragon X series chips. NVIDIA would have to work with Microsoft to have the same market access as Qualcomm.
If all goes well, the NVIDIA PC processor powering AI PCs will launch in 2025.
34 Comments on Qualcomm's Success with Windows AI PC Drawing NVIDIA Back to the Client SoC Business
Besides, NPUs are only breaking into the client space as an SOC/GPU integration (keyword). Given that 99.9999% of today’s client devices are primarily SOC with optional dGPU, selling yet another discrete, dis-integrated component to a consumer is just not a bet I’d make as Nvidia.
In short, not saying Nvidia would do a discrete NPU when they have GPUs, but if they did, it would almost certainly NOT be a consumer product.
Apps can be emulated, but drivers really do need to be native. NVIDIA has GPU drivers for Linux on Arm, but not Windows on Arm.
Many Arm-based systems have PCIe (e.g., datacenter), so it's not a hardware limitation (e.g., PCIe is much more abstracted vs the CPU ISA). The Ampere Altra desktop is also Arm-based with PCIe expansion. Interestingly, this may the system Linus Torvalds now uses.
//It's easy to forget that most SPEC testing is an "estimate". ;) We shouldn't worry: plenty non-SPEC benchmarks are far less reliable than a well-done SPEC estimate. Very few people submit their benchmark + methodology for independent validation for a validated SPEC score.
You seem to not understand the actual parameters of "the real world": first, Grace uses Cortex-X3-based (Neoverse V2) cores, so this comparison is moot: NVIDIA is rumored to use the Cortex-X5. Second, much of Phoronix's testing is heavily nT, so the significantly-higher-core-count 7995WX (96-cores) is also rather irrelevant, especially with the next point. Third, the 7980X and 7995WX have 350W TDPs (and consume about that); without actual & comparable data on the GH200, this is not an interesting comparison when power draw is a key limiting factor in consumer SoCs. Fourth, Phoronix notes many times some of their Linux benchmarks in these tests weren't optimized for AArch64 yet, so it is not much to stand on.
In the end, it's a nonsense comparison: this rumor isn't saying NVIDIA isn't trying to replace Zen4 workstations with GH200. NVIDIA is claimed to be making consumer APUs for Windows on Arm. Linux perf, enterprise workloads, developer workloads, scientific workloads, 300W+ TDP perf, nT performance beyond 8-12 cores: all irrelevant here. SPEC was a much better estimate, even with only int, IMO.
But, if we want to measure a current Arm uArches vs Zen4 on 100% native code, fp & int, phones vs desktops, etc. Geekbench is the last man standing. The Cortex-X4 does fine and it's more than enough for Windows on Arm & consumer workloads, even if it's a generation behind what NVIDIA will ship: it is only available on phones, so you won't get much reliable cross-platform data.
1T Cortex-X4 smartphone: 2,287 pts - 100%
1T 7995WX workstation: 2,720 pts (or 2,702 pts) - 119%
It's a good thing AMD uses Geekbench for CPU perf estimates on consumer workloads, so I can happily avoid all the usual disclaimers. We'll have to see how Cortex-X5 lands, but I don't think NVIDIA's value prop. depends on "fastest 1T CPU ever for WoA": it just needs to be good enough versus Intel & AMD in 2025.
//
TL;DR: We were discussing uArches for a future NVIDIA SoC on Windows for consumers, which Phoronix is miles away from capturing.
This seems to be serious, even if it doesn't appers to be so for now. nVidia might want to outplay both Intel and AMD, at their of duopoly game. Time will tell.This might happen not for a volume first. Knowing nVidia, they will put strong marketing at their products, so the reputation precedes, creating the steady ground for their establishment. That's how nVidia have beaten Radeon with clearly inferior products, back in the day.
They might create the image, even without the actual product stock at first, so that might shift the attention from x86 desktop dominance. Even if this is going to be flop, this might shake the current desktop situation, as nVidia now controls the flow in the industry, and mindshare. Who cares if the actual product is shit, if the brand's recognition and stock price is spilling over the edge.Indeed. This might actually be the most probable begining. As nVidia's ARM seems to be not powerful enough for desktop yet. The portable/mobile/handheld, might be the best start. And everything ARM can't handle, may be achieved by nVidia GPU's proprietary compute power. Of course if they'd manange to scale it to the portable form factor. And if it will accuire enough success in handheld, with experience gained, this might transfer to the desktop as well. And then...I think this is obvious direction of MS Windows. They made it looks as a mobile OS, and run of mobile as well. They got huge repository of Linux oriented stuff, and they even made WIndows a bit compatible with Linux, as it's the core of most ARM based OSs. Why does it matter? Because MS goes after user data, and everyone be dependant on their cloud services. The best way to do it, is to move everyone to the client mobile device. And as x86 did some moves into the portable market, the ARM seems to get success at tesktop much sooner. Especially if Windows will get native support for ARM CPUs.Indeed. If that's out of view, it doesn't mean to be abandoned. nVidia is after data center/cloud business. They are both, HW maker for these, and also the provider of cloud services. And having portable client device, locked ("certified for best experience") into their GeForce Now infrastructure, seems logical. And it doesn't have to be powerful desktop, either. Much like many tasks run on it, do not require huge powerhouse. An office/entertainment PC can be basically ran on ARM. Only heavy workloads and gaming require it.