Monday, June 10th 2024

Nightmare Fuel for Intel: Arm CEO Predicts Arm will Take Over 50% Windows PC Market-share by 2029

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btarunr
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Arm CEO Rene Haas predicts that SoCs based on the Arm CPU machine architecture will beat x86 in the Windows PC space in the next 5 years (by 2029). Haas is bullish about the current crop of Arm SoCs striking the right balance of performance and power efficiency, along with just the right blend of on-chip acceleration for AI and graphics, to make serious gains in this market, which has traditionally been dominated by the x86 machine architecture, with chips from just two manufacturers—Intel and AMD. On the other hand, Arm has a vibrant ecosystem of SoC vendors. "Arm's market share in Windows - I think, truly, in the next five years, it could be better than 50%." Haas said, in an interview with Reuters.

Currently, Microsoft has an exclusive deal with Qualcomm to power Windows-on-Arm (WoA) Copilot+ AI PCs. Qualcomm's chip lineup spans the Snapdragon Elite X and Snapdragon Elite Plus. This exclusivity, however, could change, with a recent interview of Michael Dell and Jensen Huang hinting at NVIDIA working on a chip for the AI PC market. The writing is on the wall for Intel and AMD—they need to compete with Arm on its terms: to make leaner PC processors with the kinds of performance/Watt and chip costs that Arm SoCs offer to PC OEMs. Intel has taken a big step in this direction with its "Lunar Lake" processor, you can read all about the architecture here.
Source: Electronics Weekly

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112 Comments on Nightmare Fuel for Intel: Arm CEO Predicts Arm will Take Over 50% Windows PC Market-share by 2029

#101
Darmok N Jalad
ikjadoonJune 18th, judging by laptop release dates.



This is a weird situation. Reuters shared that, apparently, Arm v Qualcomm litigation was a "hot topic" at Computex

www.reuters.com/technology/arm-qualcomm-legal-battle-seen-disrupting-ai-powered-pc-wave-2024-06-10/



Windows OEMs don't seem that worried, and neither do Arm nor Qualcomm: just the attendees? So maybe everyone is expecting a settlement that won't halt sales.
Maybe they are all worried since Apple had just recently lost a lawsuit over a sensor. Apple had to halt sales of the Watch, and then eventually disable that feature in software and then sell a hobbled device. I know Arm v QC is not the same as that, but maybe if there ends up being a sales injunction on those devices until a settlement is reached, it could really knock down the hype. Even just a few months of halted sales could be significant, since Intel is working on Arrow Lake, AMD is close to Strix Point, and M4 Macs are due this year. This is really about as good as Snapdragon X is going to look before everyone else looms in around them.
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#102
SL2
ikjadoonJune 18th, judging by laptop release dates.
So it's not this week like I heard.
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#103
phanbuey
ikjadoonJune 18th, judging by laptop release dates.



This is a weird situation. Reuters shared that, apparently, Arm v Qualcomm litigation was a "hot topic" at Computex

www.reuters.com/technology/arm-qualcomm-legal-battle-seen-disrupting-ai-powered-pc-wave-2024-06-10/



Windows OEMs don't seem that worried, and neither do Arm nor Qualcomm: just the attendees? So maybe everyone is expecting a settlement that won't halt sales.
They're not really expecting the sales to take off beyond what's in the channel already. And both parties are motivated to settle, it's a dispute about money, but in either case some money > no money.

ARM is trying to get qualcomm to pay the higher rates that Nuvia had or they can't use the design, Qualcomm wants to use its current per chip rate.
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#104
Tek-Check
- by 2029, both Intel and AMD should also have ARM CPUs, so not a big deal, really
- also, their efficiency x86 cores (e-cores and c-cores) should further develop as a result of pressure from ARM designs
Posted on Reply
#105
Minus Infinity
R0H1TI don't see QC's X failing but depending on how they price it it'd simply be a niche like Apple ~ yes Apple is in fact a niche in the much bigger PC market! Windows itself is such a massive "walled garden" that it inherently allows MS to push through a lot of products without competition, like I said about many softwares having no equivalent alternatives on Mac or Linux.
Good thing is Mediatek is getting in on the ARM act in 2025 to supply chips for copilot+ Surface laptops, and Nvidia will also be a player next year. Qualcomm won't be able to milk the customers for too long as they face stiff competition, and even more so if Lunar Lake is even half as good as hyped.
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#107
Tek-Check
Qualcomm is definitively more competitive than ever before in laptop space, despite not being stellar in all benchmarks.
Performance is enough for everyday average user, minus unpolished gaming.
Posted on Reply
#108
Dr_b_
So is the performance of the new laptops beating the intel/amd x86 offerings?
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#109
kapone32
Tek-CheckQualcomm is definitively more competitive than ever before in laptop space, despite not being stellar in all benchmarks.
Performance is enough for everyday average user, minus unpolished gaming.
So then who is this for? It is like they think the smartphone market is going to adopt these laptops instead but the performance is not as good as they claim. I also could have sworn the narrative said 2027 originally. Which shows another flaw in that 2029 means brand new CPUs anyway. The price of these laptops will also doom them as there are already laptops that can do what this is good at for way less than $1300.
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#110
Tek-Check
kapone32So then who is this for? It is like they think the smartphone market is going to adopt these laptops instead but the performance is not as good as they claim. I also could have sworn the narrative said 2027 originally. Which shows another flaw in that 2029 means brand new CPUs anyway. The price of these laptops will also doom them as there are already laptops that can do what this is good at for way less than $1300.
- millions of everyday computing users will buy thin and light laptops, especially woke, environmentally conscious students
- the chip is fine for everyday tasks for ordinary folks
- as always, never buy products on day one, unless you can't deal with own FOMO
- wait for Black Friday for deals 20-40% less
- simple
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#111
kapone32
Tek-Check- millions of everyday computing users will buy thin and light laptops, especially woke, environmentally conscious students
- the chip is fine for everyday tasks for ordinary folks
- as always, never buy products on day one, unless you can't deal with own FOMO
- wait for Black Friday for deals 20-40% less
- simple
What does woke have to do with computers? Cost will be the mitigating factor. There is already a laptop from Acer that is thin and light using the 7940HX chip for $599 US announced at CES. You know the chip that fuelled the handheld movement.
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#112
Tek-Check
kapone32What does woke have to do with computers? Cost will be the mitigating factor.
Not always. Being 'woke' is often seen as a lifestyle, such as being environmentally friendly, using devices with long battery life, not harming 'mother Earth', not wasting electricity, etc. etc. From that point of view, it's worth paying a bit more to use a device with 10-11 hours of battery life than the one with 6-7 hours. You feel good about yourself when contributing less to carbon footprint.
kapone32There is already a laptop from Acer that is thin and light using the 7940HX chip for $599 US announced at CES.
Sure, but the mindset can be powerful consumer drive, as explained above, in some consumer groups. Money is not everything. A local baker has more expensive bread and croissants but they get more business because they display a sign in the bakery that they use renewable energy to bake it, gluten-free ingredients, organic wheat without pesticides, etc. You sell products wrapped into mind-set and lifestyle. It's one of key exam subjects at univeristy marketing courses - behavioural economics.
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