Monday, June 10th 2024
Nightmare Fuel for Intel: Arm CEO Predicts Arm will Take Over 50% Windows PC Market-share by 2029
Arm CEO Rene Haas predicts that SoCs based on the Arm CPU machine architecture will beat x86 in the Windows PC space in the next 5 years (by 2029). Haas is bullish about the current crop of Arm SoCs striking the right balance of performance and power efficiency, along with just the right blend of on-chip acceleration for AI and graphics, to make serious gains in this market, which has traditionally been dominated by the x86 machine architecture, with chips from just two manufacturers—Intel and AMD. On the other hand, Arm has a vibrant ecosystem of SoC vendors. "Arm's market share in Windows - I think, truly, in the next five years, it could be better than 50%." Haas said, in an interview with Reuters.
Currently, Microsoft has an exclusive deal with Qualcomm to power Windows-on-Arm (WoA) Copilot+ AI PCs. Qualcomm's chip lineup spans the Snapdragon Elite X and Snapdragon Elite Plus. This exclusivity, however, could change, with a recent interview of Michael Dell and Jensen Huang hinting at NVIDIA working on a chip for the AI PC market. The writing is on the wall for Intel and AMD—they need to compete with Arm on its terms: to make leaner PC processors with the kinds of performance/Watt and chip costs that Arm SoCs offer to PC OEMs. Intel has taken a big step in this direction with its "Lunar Lake" processor, you can read all about the architecture here.
Source:
Electronics Weekly
Currently, Microsoft has an exclusive deal with Qualcomm to power Windows-on-Arm (WoA) Copilot+ AI PCs. Qualcomm's chip lineup spans the Snapdragon Elite X and Snapdragon Elite Plus. This exclusivity, however, could change, with a recent interview of Michael Dell and Jensen Huang hinting at NVIDIA working on a chip for the AI PC market. The writing is on the wall for Intel and AMD—they need to compete with Arm on its terms: to make leaner PC processors with the kinds of performance/Watt and chip costs that Arm SoCs offer to PC OEMs. Intel has taken a big step in this direction with its "Lunar Lake" processor, you can read all about the architecture here.
112 Comments on Nightmare Fuel for Intel: Arm CEO Predicts Arm will Take Over 50% Windows PC Market-share by 2029
baby steps ARM, when windows on ARM surpasses Apples laptops and iPads, then we can predict when windows on ARM will take over the World.
heck, has linux on ARM laptops (NON-apple chips) have 50% share? (for this argument only count attached displays)
Qualcomm 28 P/E
Intel is 32 P/E
Apple is 30 P/E
Market cap is not cash on hand. AMD is highly overvalued on the stock market. I think intel has like 5x the cash on hand vs AMD.
If someone also did similar featured ISA with same clocks, node and design constraints of Intel, it would have been the same result.
If you look at Emerald Rapids AVX-512 benchmarks by Phoronix, you will see that Intel has no such issues anymore.
www.phoronix.com/review/intel-5th-gen-xeon-avx512
I think the question for Windows is are they as prepared for this as Apple was. I know 64bit apps are covered, but I don’t know about 32bit, which covers a lot of legacy software, including many classic game engines. The other big unknown is how good Qualcomm is going to be with graphics drivers. No one expects their Mac to really play games, since Mac gaming has never been that popular. Can’t say the same for Windows. Will there be issues playing stuff that similarly priced x86 machines can handle just fine? I don’t doubt that for many basic users, WOA is enough, and might even be ideal, but is that 50% of Windows users? Not so sure about that, and the current crop of Snapdragon X devices aren’t budget priced, so they might be targeting the wrong market from the get go.
"Customer ignorance of alternatives to the Pentium series further contributed to these designs being comparatively unsuccessful, despite the fact that the K5 had very good Pentium compatibility and the 6x86 was significantly faster than the Pentium on integer code.[j] AMD later managed to grow into a serious contender with the K6 set of processors, which gave way to the very successful Athlon and Opteron"
there is nothing that makes one a better company than the other
Also TSMC has had it's own pitfalls over the years never mind Samsung
Even I didn't realize AMD made them.
Intel 11%
AMD 11%
Apple 11%
Qualcomm 11%
Mediatek 11%
Nvidia 11%
Other ARM 11%
Other RISC-V 11%
Unknown future tech 11%
Pie 1%
Error +/- 11%
For a company that use to have >90% market share across all segments, this is extremely, extremely bad for Intel even under increases in TAM (total addressable market).
That reminds me, most Optys are hella cheap these days. Not sure about the motherboards though, but makes for a super fun quad-socket build.
They need to double their iGPU to really tempt most of the market.
NVidia is king, not Intel. But you don't beat Intel unless you provide a GPU option.
Nvidia + Qualcomm might work, but better to double the Qualcomm GPU instead, as soon as possible.
I feel like they used all the die space for the NPU and cut the GPU back too much as a consequence.
Apple's number one problem is lack of ram and storage. Qualcomm's is lack of GPU power.
Intel and AMD still have the ram, the storage, the GPU. The things people want. The entire package.
Once I see a 15 inch truly instant on tablet with a good keyboard (10 key required) that also has good battery life, a bright screen, and doesn't lag when two or three tabs and a couple programs are open....
I have a S22 and Iphone 15 Pro, even with a link to the cloud spreadsheets it's slow, so slow I choose to use my work laptop or PC 95% of the time.
RISC is a chosen bunch of acceleration units on a chip, no more power efficient than a X86-64 chip with the same acceleration parts.
Intel / AMD can't touch ARM or the Apple M's ARM based design in performance/watt.