The EUV lithography machine from ASML ordered by Rapidus is expected to arrive in Japan in mid-December, according to information from Nikkei cited by TrendForce. This marks the first deployment of EUV technology in Japan, an important step for the country's semiconductor industry as it seeks to establish itself as a major player. Rapidus is currently building a factory in Chitose, Hokkaido, and plans to start mass production of 2 nm chips in 2027. The company also plans to purchase several EUV devices if the 2-nanometer chip production is successful, and intends to build a second production facility specifically for 1.4 nm chips. To support these operations, ASML will establish a service center in Chitose City.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang hinted at the possibility of outsourcing AI chip production to Rapidus. As of October, construction progress on the Rapidus facility, which began in September 2023, is up to 63% and remains on track. In addition to Rapidus, Micron's Hiroshima plant is scheduled to install EUV equipment in 2025, allowing for mass production in 2026. JASM, a TSMC subsidiary in Japan, plans to integrate EUV lithography with a second wafer plant in 2027 that will have a 6 nm production line.

Today, the Department of Commerce and Natcast, the operator of the National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC), announced the expected location for the first CHIPS for America research and development (R&D) flagship facility. The CHIPS for America Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Accelerator, an NSTC facility (EUV Accelerator), is expected to operate within NY CREATES' Albany NanoTech Complex in Albany, New York, supported by a proposed federal investment of an estimated $825 million. The EUV Accelerator will focus on advancing state of the art EUV technology and the R&D that relies on it.

As a key part of President Biden's Investing in America agenda, CHIPS for America is driven by the growing need to bolster the U.S. semiconductor supply chain, accelerate U.S. leading-edge R&D, and create good quality jobs around the country. This proposed facility will bring together NSTC members from across the ecosystem to accelerate semiconductor R&D and innovation by providing NSTC members access to technologies, capabilities, and critical resources.

Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2024 third-quarter results.

• Q3 total net sales of €7.5 billion, gross margin of 50.8%, net income of €2.1 billion
• Quarterly net bookings in Q3 of €2.6 billion of which €1.4 billion is EUV
• ASML expects Q4 2024 total net sales between €8.8 billion and €9.2 billion, and a gross margin between 49% and 50%
• ASML expects 2024 total net sales of around €28 billion
• ASML expects 2025 total net sales to be between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%

CEO statement and outlook
"Our third-quarter total net sales came in at €7.5 billion, above our guidance, driven by more DUV and Installed Base Management sales. The gross margin came in at 50.8%, within guidance. While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness. Regarding Logic, the competitive foundry dynamics have resulted in a slower ramp of new nodes at certain customers, leading to several fab push outs and resulting changes in litho demand timing, in particular EUV. In Memory, we see limited capacity additions, with the focus still on technology transitions supporting the HBM and DDR5 AI-related demand."

According to TechNews Taiwan, Intel has made significant progress in implementing ASML's cutting-edge High-NA EUV lithography technology. The company has successfully completed the assembly of its second High-NA "Twinscan EXE" EUV system at its Portland facility, as confirmed by Mark Phillips, Intel's Director of Lithography Hardware. Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML, highlighted that the new assembly process allows for direct installation at the customer's site, eliminating the need for disassembly and reassembly, thus saving time and resources. Phillips expressed enthusiasm about the technology, noting that the improvements offered by High-NA EUV machines have surpassed expectations compared to standard EUV systems. Given the massive $380 million price point of these High-NA systems, any savings are valuable in the process.

The rapid progress in installation and implementation of High-NA EUV technology at Intel's facilities positions the company strongly for production transition. With all necessary infrastructure in place and inspections of High-NA EUV masks already underway, Intel aims to have its Intel 14A process in mass production by 2026-2027. As Intel leads in High-NA EUV adoption, other industry giants are following suit. ASML plans to deliver High-NA EUV systems to TSMC by year-end, with rumors suggesting that TSMC's first system will possibly arrive in September. Samsung has also committed to the technology, although recent reports indicate a potential reduction in their procurement plans. Additionally, this development has sparked discussions about the future of photoresist technology, with Phillips suggesting that while Chemically Amplified Resist (CAR) is currently sufficient, future advancements may require metal oxide photoresists. This provides a small insight into Intel's future nodes.

The Netherlands government announced additional export controls on advanced chipmaking equipment on Friday. This decision, which specifically targets ASML's DUV immersion lithography tools, has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing. The new regulations, aligning with similar restrictions imposed by the US last year, will require additional licensing for the export of ASML's 1970i and 1980i models. China's Commerce Ministry swiftly responded to the announcement, expressing dissatisfaction with what it perceives as unwarranted restrictions on trade. In a statement released Sunday, the ministry accused the United States of leveraging its global influence to pressure allies into tightening export controls, describing it as an attempt to maintain "global hegemony" in the semiconductor industry.

The Chinese government urged the Netherlands to reconsider its position, calling for a balance between security concerns and the preservation of mutually beneficial economic ties. Beijing emphasized the importance of safeguarding the "common interests" of businesses in both countries and warned against potential damage to Sino-Dutch cooperation in the semiconductor sector. Dutch Trade Minister Reinette Klever defended the decision, stating it was made "for our safety." However, this move could have significant implications for ASML, which has already faced restrictions on exporting its most advanced systems to China. ASML receives as much as 49% of its revenue from China, meaning that additional export regulations could significantly reduce revenues if licenses aren't approved.

According to a recent report from Nikkei, China has claimed the number one spot as the single highest spender on chipmaking tools. As the data from SEMI highlights, China spent a whopping $25 billion on key semiconductor tools in the first half of 2024, more than the US, Taiwan, and South Korea combined. And the train of acceleration for the Chinese semiconductor industry doesn't seem to be slowing down, as the country is expected to spend more than $50 billion for the entire year 2024. However, this equipment is not precisely leading-edge, as Chinese companies are under Western sanctions and are unable to source advanced EUV lithography tools for making sub-7 nm chips.

Most of the spending is allocated to mature node chipmaking facilities. These so-called "second tier" companies are driving the massive expenditures, and they are plentiful. Nikkei reports that there are at least ten firms that operate with mature nodes like 10/12/16 nm nodes. Being the biggest spender, China is also one of the primary revenue sources for many companies. For the US chipmaking tool companies like Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA, Chinese purchases accounted for 32%, 39%, and 44% of their latest quarterly revenue, respectively. Tokyo Electron recorded orders to China accounting for 49.9% of its revenues in June, while the Netherlands giant ASML also attributed 49%. Perhaps even more interesting is the expected outlook for 2025, which shows no signs of slowing down. The Chinese semiconductor industry must establish complete self-sufficiency, and massive capital expenditures are expected to continue.

Samsung Electronics is set to make a significant leap in semiconductor manufacturing technology with the introduction of its first High-NA 0.55 EUV lithography tool. The company plans to install the ASML Twinscan EXE:5000 system at its Hwaseong campus between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, marking a crucial step in developing next-generation process technologies for logic and DRAM production. This move positions Samsung about a year behind Intel but ahead of rivals TSMC and SK Hynix in adopting High-NA EUV technology. The system is expected to be operational by mid-2025, primarily for research and development purposes. Samsung is not just focusing on the lithography equipment itself but is building a comprehensive ecosystem around High-NA EUV technology.

The company is collaborating with several key partners like Lasertec (developing inspection equipment for High-NA photomasks), JSR (working on advanced photoresists), Tokyo Electron (enhancing etching machines), and Synopsys (shifting to curvilinear patterns on photomasks for improved circuit precision). The High-NA EUV technology promises significant advancements in chip manufacturing. With an 8 nm resolution capability, it could make transistors about 1.7 times smaller and increase transistor density by nearly three times compared to current Low-NA EUV systems. However, the transition to High-NA EUV comes with challenges. The tools are more expensive, costing up to $380 million each, and have a smaller imaging field. Their larger size also requires chipmakers to reconsider fab layouts. Despite these hurdles, Samsung aims for commercial implementation of High-NA EUV by 2027.

Imec, a world-leading research and innovation hub in nanoelectronics and digital technologies, presents patterned structures obtained after exposure with the 0.55NA EUV scanner in the joint ASML-imec High NA EUV Lithography Lab in Veldhoven, the Netherlands. Random logic structures down to 9,5 nm (19 nm pitch), random vias with 30 nm center-to-center distance, 2D features at 22 nm pitch, and a DRAM specific lay out at P32nm were printed after single exposure, using materials and baseline processes that were optimized for High NA EUV by imec and its partners in the framework of imec's Advanced Patterning Program. With these results, imec confirms the readiness of the ecosystem to enable single exposure high-resolution High NA EUV Lithography.

Following the recent opening of the joint ASML-imec High NA EUV Lithography Lab in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, customers now have access to the (TWINSCAN EXE:5000) High NA EUV scanner to develop private High NA EUV use cases leveraging the customer's own design rules and lay outs.

Japanese professor Tsumoru Shintake of the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) has unveiled a revolutionary extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology that promises to significantly push down semiconductor manufacturing costs. The new technology tackles two previously insurmountable issues in EUV lithography. First, it introduces a streamlined optical projection system using only two mirrors, a dramatic simplification from the conventional six or more. Second, it employs a novel "dual line field" method to efficiently direct EUV light onto the photomask without obstructing the optical path. Prof. Shintake's design offers substantial advantages over current EUV lithography machines. It can operate with smaller EUV light sources, consuming less than one-tenth of the power required by conventional systems. This reduction in energy consumption also reduces operating expenses (OpEx), which are usually high in semiconductor manufacturing facilities.

The simplified two-mirror design also promises improved stability and maintainability. While traditional EUV systems often require over 1 megawatt of power, the OIST model can achieve comparable results with just 100 kilowatts. Despite its simplicity, the system maintains high contrast and reduces mask 3D effects, which is crucial for attaining nanometer-scale precision in semiconductor production. OIST has filed a patent application for this technology, with plans for practical implementation through demonstration experiments. The global EUV lithography market is projected to grow from $8.9 billion in 2024 to $17.4 billion by 2030, when most nodes are expected to use EUV scanners. In contrast, ASML's single EUV scanner can cost up to $380 million without OpEx, which is very high thanks to the power consumption of high-energy light UV light emitters. Regular EUV scanners also lose 40% of the UV light going to the next mirror, with only 1% of the starting light source reaching the silicon wafer. And that is while consuming over one megawatt of power. However, with the proposed low-cost EUV system, more than 10% of the energy makes it to the wafer, and the new system is expected to use less than 100 kilowatts of power while carrying a cost of less than 100 million, a third from ASML's flagship.

Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2024 second-quarter results.

• Q2 total net sales of €6.2 billion, gross margin of 51.5%, net income of €1.6 billion
• Quarterly net bookings in Q2 of €5.6 billion of which €2.5 billion is EUV
• ASML expects Q3 2024 total net sales between €6.7 billion and €7.3 billion and a gross margin between 50% and 51%

CEO statement and outlook
"Our second-quarter total net sales came in at €6.2 billion, at the high-end of our guidance, with a gross margin of 51.5% which is above guidance, both primarily driven by more immersion systems sales. In line with previous quarters, overall semiconductor inventory levels continue to improve, and we also see further improvement in litho tool utilization levels at both Logic and Memory customers. While there are still uncertainties in the market, primarily driven by the macro environment, we expect industry recovery to continue in the second half of the year. We expect third-quarter total net sales between €6.7 billion and €7.3 billion with a gross margin between 50% and 51%. ASML expects R&D costs of around €1,100 million and SG&A costs of around €295 million. Our outlook for the full year 2024 remains unchanged. We see 2024 as a transition year with continued investments in both capacity ramp and technology. We currently see strong developments in AI, driving most of the industry recovery and growth, ahead of other market segments," said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet.

ASML, the world's sole provider of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems essential for manufacturing the most advanced chips, has revealed its roadmap for pushing semiconductor scaling even further. In a recent presentation, former ASML president Martin van den Brink announced the company's plans for a new "Hyper-NA" EUV technology that would succeed the High-NA EUV systems, which are just beginning to deploy. The Hyper-NA tools, still in early research stages, would increase the numerical aperture to 0.75 from High-NA's 0.55, enabling chips with transistor densities beyond the projected limits of High-NA in the early 2030s. This higher numerical aperture should reduce reliance on multi-patterning techniques that add complexity and cost.

Hyper-NA is bringing challenges of its own to commercialization. Key obstacles include light polarization effects that degrade imaging contrast, requiring polarization filters that reduce light throughput. Resist materials may also need to become thinner to maintain resolution. While leading EUV chipmakers like TSMC can likely extend scaling for several more nodes using multi-patterning with existing 0.33 NA EUV tools, Intel has adopted 0.55 High-NA to avoid these complexities. But Hyper-NA will likely become essential across the industry later this decade as High-NA's physical limits are reached. Beyond Hyper-NA, few alternative patterning solutions exist besides expensive multi-beam electron lithography, which lacks the throughput of EUV photolithography. To continue classical scaling, the industry may need to eventually transition to new channel materials with superior electron mobility properties compared to silicon, requiring novel deposition and etch capabilities.

Last month, we covered ASML's plans to leave the Netherlands after a crisis with the Dutch government that prevented skilled immigrants from entering and working inside ASML's facilities. However, it appears that ASML has managed to strike a potential deal with the Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his office about the company's plans to stay in the country. In an effort dubbed "Operation Beethoven," the Dutch government aimed to keep the tech giant in the country, with a deal now seemingly in place. AMSL's roadblocks and reasons for potentially leaving the Netherlands were difficulty in obtaining building permits, constraints on the electrical grid, transportation bottlenecks, and a need for supporting infrastructure like hospitals, schools, and housing. The most prominent of them was importing foreign labor in the form of highly skilled engineers and scientists needed to develop next-generation lithography machines.

According to the NLTimes, ASML now plans to potentially expand in the Brainport Industries Campus (BIC) in Eindhoven, with a creation of 20,000 new jobs in a 2.5 billion Euro investment from the Dutch government. "BIC is an interesting option for us, which we are now exploring together with the municipality of Eindhoven," noted ASML CFO Roger Dassen. Given that ASML needs to double its operations in the following decade to meet soaring demand, the company has many uncertainties. Questions of finding skilled immigrants and building infrastructure to support their needs remain the company's priority. In the Summer, the plan to support ASML's expansion will be voted in the Eindhoven City Council, which will decide the fate of ASML's stay in the Netherlands. An interesting comment from January from AMSL CEO Peter Wennik is, "Ultimately, we can only grow this company if there are enough qualified people. We prefer to do that here, but if we cannot get those people here, we will get those people in Eastern Europe or in Asia or in the United States. Then we will have to go there." The final decision still awaits.

Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2024 first-quarter results.

• Q1 total net sales of €5.3 billion, gross margin of 51.0%, net income of €1.2 billion
• Quarterly net bookings in Q1 of €3.6 billion of which €656 million is EUV
• ASML expects Q2 2024 total net sales between €5.7 billion and €6.2 billion, and a gross margin between 50% and 51%
• ASML expects 2024 total net sales to be similar to 2023

CEO statement and outlook
"Our first-quarter total net sales came in at €5.3 billion, at the midpoint of our guidance, with a gross margin of 51.0% which is above guidance, primarily driven by product mix and one-offs. We expect second-quarter total net sales between €5.7 billion and €6.2 billion with a gross margin between 50% and 51%. ASML expects R&D costs of around €1,070 million and SG&A costs of around €295 million. Our outlook for the full year 2024 is unchanged, with the second half of the year expected to be stronger than the first half, in line with the industry's continued recovery from the downturn. We see 2024 as a transition year with continued investments in both capacity ramp and technology, to be ready for the turn in the cycle," said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink.

Earlier today, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte met with China's President Xi Jinping—fresh reportage has focused on their discussion of technological trade restrictions. Holland's premier had to carefully navigate the conversation around recent global tensions, most notably the prevention of fancy ASML chipmaking equipment reaching the Chinese mainland. CCTV (China's state broadcaster) selected a couple of choice quotes for inclusion in an online report—Xi remarked that: "the Chinese people also have the right to legitimate development, and no force can stop the pace of China's scientific and technological development and progress." Specific manufacturers and types of machinery were not mentioned during the meeting between state leaders, but media interpretations point to recent ASML debacles being entirely relevant, given the context of international relationships.

ASML is keen to keep Chinese firms on its order books—according to AP News: "China became ASML's second-largest market, accounting for 29% of its revenue as firms bought up equipment before the licensing requirement took effect." Revised licensing agreements have stymied the supply of ASML most advanced chipmaking tools—Chinese foundries have resorted to upgrading existing/older equipment (backed by government funding) in efforts to stay competitive with international producers. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is reportedly racing to get natively designed EUV machines patented (in co-operation with Huawei). Post-meeting, Rutte commented (to press) on the ongoing technology restrictions: "what I can tell you is that... when we have to take measures, that they are never aimed at one country specifically, that we always try to make sure that the impact is limited, is not impacting the supply chain, and therefore is not impacting the overall economic relationship."

According to Bloomberg's latest investigation, Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) have submitted patents on the self-aligned quadruple patterning (SAQP) pattern etching technique to enable SMIC to achieve 5 nm semiconductor production. The two Chinese giants have been working with the Deep Ultra Violet (DUV) machinery to develop a pattern etching technique allowing SMIC to produce a node compliant with the US exporting rules while maintaining the density improvements from the previously announced 7 nm node. In the 7 nm process, SMIC most likely used self-aligned dual patterning (SADP) with DUV tools, but for the increased density of the 5 nm node, a doubling to SAQP is required. In semiconductor manufacturing, lithography tools take multiple turns to etch the design of the silicon wafer.

Especially with smaller nodes getting ever-increasing density requirements, it is becoming challenging to etch sub-10 nm designs using DUV tools. That is where Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) tools from ASML come into play. With EUV, the wavelengths of the lithography printers are 14 times smaller than DUV, at only 13.5 nm, compared to 193 nm of ArF immersion DUV systems. This means that without EUV, SMIC has to look into alternatives like SAQP to increase the density of its nodes and, as a result, include more complications and possibly lower yields. As an example, Intel tried to use SAQP in its first 10 nm nodes to reduce reliance on EUV, which resulted in a series of delays and complications, eventually pushing Intel into EUV. While Huawei and SMIC may develop a more efficient solution for SAQP, the use of EUV is imminent as the regular DUV can not keep up with the increasing density of semiconductor nodes. Given that ASML can't ship its EUV machinery to China, Huawei is supposedly developing its own EUV machines, but will likely take a few more years to show.

ASML celebrated an important milestone last week—the company's social media account shared news about their third generation extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool reaching an unnamed customer: "chipmakers have a need for speed! The first Twinscan NXE:3800E is now being installed in a chip fab. 🔧 With its new wafer stages, the system will deliver leading edge productivity for printing advanced chips. We're pushing lithography to new limits." The post included a couple of snaps—ASML workers were gathered in front of a pair of climatized containers, and Peter Wennink (President and CEO) and Christophe Fouquet (EVP and CBO) thanked staff at company HQ.

The Twinscan NXE:3800E is ASML's latest platform from a series of 0.33 numerical aperture (Low-NA) lithography scanners. Information is scarce—the company has not yet published a 3800E product page. The preceding model—Twinscan NXE:3600D—supports EUV volume production at 3 and 5 nm. ASML roadmaps imply that the Twinscan NXE:3800E has been designed to produce chips on 2 and 3 nm-class technologies. The company's cutting-edge High-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) chipmaking tools (High-NA Twinscan EXE) are expected to cost around $380 million—reports from last month point to a possible $183 million price point for "existing Low-NA EUV lithography systems." Another Low-NA EUV machine is reported to be lined up for a possible 2026 release window—ASML's next-gen Twinscan NXE:4000F model will co-exist alongside emerging (pricier) High-NA solutions.

SMIC, China's largest semiconductor manufacturer, is reportedly assembling a dedicated team to develop 3 nm semiconductor node technology, following reports of the company setting up 5 nm chip production for Huawei later this year. This move is part of SMIC's efforts to achieve independence from foreign companies and reduce its reliance on US technology. According to a report from Joongang, SMIC's initial goal is to commence operations of its 5 nm production line, which will mass-produce Huawei chipsets for various products, including AI silicon. However, SMIC is already looking beyond the 5 nm node. The company has assembled an internal research and development team to begin work on the next-generation 3 nm node.

The Chinese manufacturer is expected to accomplish this using existing DUV machinery, as ASML, the sole supplier of advanced EUV technology, is prohibited from providing equipment to Chinese companies due to US restrictions. It is reported that one of the biggest challenges facing SMIC is the potential for low yields and high production costs. The company is seeking substantial subsidies from the Chinese government to overcome these obstacles. Receiving government subsidies will be crucial for SMIC, especially considering that its 5 nm chips are expected to be up to 50 percent more expensive than TSMC's due to the use of older DUV equipment. The first 3 nm wafers from SMIC are not expected to roll out for several years, as the company will prioritize the commercialization of Huawei's 5 nm chips. This ambitious undertaking by SMIC represents a significant challenge for the company as it strives to reduce its dependence on foreign semiconductor technology and establish itself as an essential player in the global manufacturing industry.

Chipmaking manufacturing equipment giant ASML has expressed concerns about staying in the Netherlands and considering expansion into other countries due to its home country's capped possibilities. On Wednesday, ASML executives met with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte to discuss the company's growth plans. The meeting, however, failed to fully resolve ASML's concerns surrounding the country's stance on skilled foreign labor, leaving uncertainty over the tech giant's expansion in its home market. Being one of the world's largest suppliers to chipmakers, ASML has said it needs to double its operations in the following decade to meet soaring demand. However, the company is hitting roadblocks in the Netherlands, including difficulty obtaining building permits, constraints on the electrical grid, transportation bottlenecks, and a need for supporting infrastructure like hospitals, schools, and housing. A key issue is the Netherlands' ability to attract scarce foreign engineering talent, with over 40% of ASML's Dutch workforce being non-Dutch. Recent parliamentary motions to cap international students and scrap a tax break for skilled migrants have met with criticism from ASML and other tech employers.

In an effort dubbed "Operation Beethoven," the Dutch government is scrambling to address ASML's concerns and prevent the company from expanding abroad, having already seen multinationals like Shell and Unilever leave their home country in recent years. However, ASML CEO Peter Wennink said that while the company prefers to grow in the Netherlands, it can do so elsewhere if needed. The situation comes amid pressure from the US for allies like the Netherlands to tighten restrictions on China's further access to semiconductor technology. As the sole producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines crucial for advanced chipmaking, like High-NA and Low-NA, ASML holds strategic importance beyond just economics. With a new right-wing Dutch government being formed, whether a compromise can be reached to ensure ASML's continued growth in the Netherlands remains to be seen. The tech giant's decision could significantly affect the Dutch economy and its position in the global chip industry.

The publication of ASML's 2023 Annual Report has revealed some interesting insights into how the photolithography producer remains diplomatic in times of global tension. Peter Wennink (President, Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board of Management) discussed his company's carefully considered tightrope act—here is his message to stakeholders: "In 2023, demand for our DUV systems continued to be strong, particularly in China. During the previous two years, our Chinese customers had received significantly fewer systems than they had ordered, due to global demand for our systems exceeding supply. However, the shifts in demand timing from other customers that we experienced in 2023 meant that we had the opportunity to backfill these orders for mature and midcritical nodes to China, while of course complying with export regulations." ASML is seemingly keen to continue doing business with Chinese customers, despite having to juggle with strict international trade rulings—as revealed in their financial report, trade in this region accounts for "26.3% of our 2023 total net sales." This places China in a second tier position, just behind Taiwan (29.3% of 2023 total net sale).

ASML was expecting to deliver a grand total of 600 DUV equipment units to Chinese customers by the end of 2025, but trade restriction adjustments nixed that avenue of business. The report's "Strategy and products" section highlights the company's concerns about narrowed lanes: "Geopolitical tensions may result in export control restrictions, trade sanctions, tariffs and more generally international trade regulations which may impact our ability to deliver our systems, technology, and services." China's leading foundry—Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)—is reportedly targeting a 5 nm process node, although this would require a major readjustment of its existing collection of (older) lithography equipment. SMIC's flagship Shanghai location cannot upgrade to the most advanced DUV machinery in ASML's catalog, therefore workers are reliant on slightly antiquated gear (previously tasked with 7 nm manufacturing)—low yields and added expense are the anticipated headaches.

ASML has revealed that its cutting-edge High-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) chipmaking tools, called High-NA Twinscan EXE, will cost around $380 million each—over twice as much as its existing Low-NA EUV lithography systems that cost about $183 million. The company has taken 10-20 initial orders from the likes of Intel and SK Hynix and plans to manufacture 20 High-NA systems annually by 2028 to meet demand. The High-NA EUV technology represents a major breakthrough, enabling an improved 8 nm imprint resolution compared to 13 nm with current Low-NA EUV tools. This allows chipmakers to produce transistors that are nearly 1.7 times smaller, translating to a threefold increase in transistor density on chips. Attaining this level of precision is critical for manufacturing sub-3 nm chips, an industry goal for 2025-2026. It also eliminates the need for complex double patterning techniques required presently.

However, superior performance comes at a cost - literally and figuratively. The hefty $380 million price tag for each High-NA system introduces financial challenges for chipmakers. Additionally, the larger High-NA tools require completely reconfiguring chip fabrication facilities. Their halved imaging field also necessitates rethinking chip designs. As a result, adoption timelines differ across companies - Intel intends to deploy High-NA EUV at an advanced 1.8 nm (18A) node, while TSMC is taking a more conservative approach, potentially implementing it only in 2030 and not rushing the use of these lithography machines, as the company's nodes are already developing well and on time. Interestingly, the installation process of ASML's High-NA Twinscan EXE 150,000-kilogram system required 250 crates, 250 engineers, and six months to complete. So, production is as equally complex as the installation and operation of this delicate machinery.

DigiTimes Asia has reached out to insiders at fabrication toolmakers in an effort to delve deeper into claims made by industry analysts at the start of 2024—both SemiAnalysis and China Renaissance have proposed that TSMC is unlikely to adopt High-NA EUV production techniques within a five year period. The latest news article explores a non-upgrade approach for the next couple of years: "TSMC has not placed orders for high-numerical aperture (High-NA) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools and is unlikely to use the technology in 2 nm and 1.4 nm (A14) process manufacturing." Intel Foundry Services (IFS) will be one of the first semiconductor manufacturers to go online with ASML's latest and greatest machinery, although no firm timeframes have been confirmed. Team Blue's Taiwanese rival (and occasional business partner) is seemingly happy with its existing infrastructure, but industry watchdogs propose that cost considerations are key factors behind TSMC's cautious planning for the next decade.

The DigiTimes insider sources believe that TSMC will not budge until at least 2029, possibly coinciding with a 1 nm production node—analysts at China Renaissance reckon that High-NA EUV machines could be delivered in the future when facilities are readied for an "A10" codenamed process. TSMC published a very ambitious "transistor count" product timeline in early January (see below)—the first "1 nm" products are supposedly targeted for a 2030 rollout, but this schedule could change due to unforeseen circumstances. Intel is expected to "phase in" its fanciest ASML gear collection once the 18A process becomes old hat—Tom's Hardware thinks that 2026 - 2027 is a feasible timeframe.

Japanese tech giant Canon hopes to shake up the semiconductor manufacturing industry by shipping new low-cost nanoimprint lithography (NIL) machines as early as this year. The technology, which stamps chip designs onto silicon wafers rather than using more complex light-based etching like market leader ASML's systems, could allow Canon to undercut rivals and democratize leading-edge chip production. "We would like to start shipping this year or next year...while the market is hot. It is a very unique technology that will enable cutting-edge chips to be made simply and at a low cost," said Hiroaki Takeishi, head of Canon's industrial group overseeing nanoimprint lithography technological advancement. Nanoimprint machines target a semiconductor node width of 5 nanometers, aiming to reach 2 nm eventually. Takeishi said the technology has primarily resolved previous defect rate issues, but success will depend on convincing customers that integration into existing fabrication plants is worthwhile.

There is skepticism about Canon's ability to significantly disrupt the market led by ASML's expensive but sophisticated extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools. However, if nanoimprint can increase yields to nearly 90% at lower costs, it could carve out a niche, especially with EUV supply struggling to meet surging demand. Canon's NIL machines are supposedly 40% the cost of ASML machinery, while operating with up to 90% lower power draw. Initially focusing on 3D NAND memory chips rather than complex processors, Canon must contend with export controls limiting sales to China. But with few options left, Takeishi said Canon will "pay careful attention" to sanctions risks. If successfully deployed commercially after 15+ years in development, Canon's nanoimprint technology could shift the competitive landscape by enabling new players to manufacture leading-edge semiconductors at dramatically lower costs. But it remains to be seen whether the new machines' defect rates, integration challenges, and geopolitical headwinds will allow Canon to disrupt the chipmaking giants it aims to compete with significantly.

Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2023 fourth quarter and full-year results.

• Q4 net sales of €7.2 billion, gross margin of 51.4%, net income of €2.0 billion
• Quarterly net bookings in Q4 of €9.2 billion of which €5.6 billion is EUV
• 2023 net sales of €27.6 billion, gross margin of 51.3%, net income of €7.8 billion
• ASML expects 2024 net sales to be similar to 2023
• ASML expects Q1 2024 net sales between €5.0 billion and €5.5 billion and a gross margin between 48% and 49%

CEO statement and outlook
"Our fourth-quarter net sales came in at €7.2 billion with a gross margin of 51.4%, both slightly above our guidance. ASML achieved another strong year in 2023 with 30% growth, ending with total net sales for the year of €27.6 billion, a gross margin of 51.3% and a backlog of €39 billion. We shipped the first modules of the first High NA EUV system, EXE:5000, to a customer before the end of the year."

Today the Supervisory Board of ASML Holding NV (ASML) announces that it intends to appoint Christophe Fouquet, currently ASML's Chief Business Officer and member of the Board of Management, as the company's next President and Chief Executive Officer. The appointment is subject to notification of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on April 24, 2024. On the same date, ASML's Co-Presidents Peter Wennink and Martin van den Brink will retire from ASML upon completion of their current appointment terms.

Nils Andersen, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, said: "The Supervisory Board, together with the management team, has gone through a comprehensive succession planning process. With Christophe, we have identified a very experienced leader with deep understanding of ASML's technology and the semiconductor industry ecosystem - acquired through different roles at ASML and other companies - and the right leadership qualities and culture fit. We are grateful and full of admiration for the immense contributions that Peter and Martin have made over decades, helping to shape ASML into the successful company that it is today. Peter and Martin have been preparing ASML for the future, and we know they will be fully engaged in securing a smooth transition for the company and all of ASML's stakeholders."

Thanks to the TMTPost interview with the Global Vice President and China President of ASML, Shen Bo, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer has revealed that around 1,400 of its deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography and metrology machines are currently installed in China. The company is expected to achieve a global output of 600 DUV equipment units by the end of 2025. Shen Bo stated that the company aims to install 500-600 units of DUV machinery in China by late 2025 or early 2026. The growth in ASML's Chinese revenues was notably high, with China contributing 46% of the company's system sales in 3Q 2023, representing an 82% revenue increase from the previous quarter.

China plans to build 25 12-inch wafer fabs in the next five years, covering logic wafers, DRAM, and MEMS production. ASML currently has a substantial presence in China, with 16 offices, 12 warehouses, distribution centers, development centers, training centers, and maintenance centers. The company employs over 1,600 people for its China operations. Despite the export restrictions imposed by the US government, ASML anticipates that the new measures will have little impact on its financial outlook for 2023 as it strives to meet the growing demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the global market.