Friday, December 2nd 2016
SSD Pricing to Surge on the Back of NAND Shortages - Stock Your SSD Needs
Business. Business never changes. Whether you're for Keynes or Hayek, some truths just can't be escaped: and the one based on the market tending to equilibrium between the forces of supply and demand is oft times almost akin to a law of physics - other times, not so much. This time, it appears as if the market forces are steering NAND prices through the roof. The causes? Varied, though you probably carry one of them in your pocket most of the time. We earlier reported surging prices in the DRAM market, spurred by the Note 7 fiasco and increased production of that smartphone's competitors (and Samsung's own products) to fill the gaping hole left by its forcible market removal. But not only by DRAM are smartphones powered - they also make use of NAND flash.That is one of the causes for the recent surge in NAND pricing - smartphone inventory demands of flash-based memory have driven the manufacturer's stocks to the red line. To this, one should add the success of the SSD market as being one of NAND's pricing own worst enemies - increasing demand for SSDs, which in Q2 2016 achieved 33.705 million units (nearly 10 million units and 41.2% year-over-year higher and up 9.5% from Q1, means that demand is ever increasing - and manufacturing capabilities, on the other hand, are not. And with recent woes in rolling out of 3D NAND, on which companies like Toshiba and Western Digital (SanDisk owner) where banking to increase their manufacturing capabilities, only serve to exacerbate the problems. Until these companies sort out their BiCS 3D NAND production, NAND shortage might drag out until mid-to-late next year.
As a result, DRAMeXchange reported that the average price of MLC SSDs rose this quarter between 6%-10%, while TLC SSDs also rose 6%-9%. higher prices are great for NAND vendors, who are raking in record revenues (DRAMeXchange reports a 19.6% increase), who are banking on lower supply to increase pricing (thus stifling demand, which eventually downgrades so much that production - and therefore supply - is again higher than demand, which in turn drives the prices back down, which leads to greater demand from tech-savvy customers who don't want to bank on ye old HDDs... And on and on). Eventually, with new 3D NAND fabs kicking into full production, pricing is (probably) coming down again - but many analysts are predicting SSD prices to increase 20-25% over the next few months, and it will likely be 2018 before prices are driven back down, if it even happens (since price-fixing after surges is, unfortunately, a thing).
Bottom-line: if you're planning on buying an SSD, the time is now.
As a result, DRAMeXchange reported that the average price of MLC SSDs rose this quarter between 6%-10%, while TLC SSDs also rose 6%-9%. higher prices are great for NAND vendors, who are raking in record revenues (DRAMeXchange reports a 19.6% increase), who are banking on lower supply to increase pricing (thus stifling demand, which eventually downgrades so much that production - and therefore supply - is again higher than demand, which in turn drives the prices back down, which leads to greater demand from tech-savvy customers who don't want to bank on ye old HDDs... And on and on). Eventually, with new 3D NAND fabs kicking into full production, pricing is (probably) coming down again - but many analysts are predicting SSD prices to increase 20-25% over the next few months, and it will likely be 2018 before prices are driven back down, if it even happens (since price-fixing after surges is, unfortunately, a thing).
Bottom-line: if you're planning on buying an SSD, the time is now.
27 Comments on SSD Pricing to Surge on the Back of NAND Shortages - Stock Your SSD Needs
Then again, all my systems are 100% SSD powered, so I don't really care anymore at this point...
A decision by a group of makers to "Put the prices up for the holiday season" would not surprise me.
A PITA as I need a couple for family members, they were out of stock at the reasonable prices (for 250GB) a few weeks ago and now they are back in stock at much higher (>10% more) prices. :(
www.storagenewsletter.com/rubriques/mas/seagate-acquires-wd-for-16-billion-new-company-named-seawest/
And please let someone catch the date in that lol.
No for real though is that supposed to say SanDisk? Seagate and WD aren't connected at all.
Might actually have brought some tech at a low point instead of high as it always feels like that's what I do.
I nearly crapped a brick until I saw the date. :laugh:
Sounds like good business, worked with HDDs and DDR3 at some point, now onto the new generation, DDR4 and SSDs. Their excuse? Oh it's smartphone's fault!!!! Do you want us to stop making your precious smartphones? no? okay than eat the price hike and shut up. I guess they couldn't use floods as an excuse this time.
www.tomshardware.com/news/ssd-hdd-shortage-nand-market,33112.html
The reality is that they're refusing to compete. I would wager this is illegal under some EU law.
So much for me grabing another SSD for games.
Ow well, my 1TB WD Blue is more than capable of runing games now, i wont change it in near future.
Ill probably grab new MB/CPU/RAM combo to upgrade my rig in near future, and probably get a new flash for my D5100 Nikon.
I say saturating, due to the low prices of devices using it, and the reason for that was an oversupply of everything from memory to the manufacturers as well, it makes it a buyers market with low profitability for suppliers.
To date, five manufacturers have pleaded guilty to their involvement in an international price-fixing conspiracy including Hynix, Infineon, Micron Technology, Samsung, and Elpida.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing