Friday, December 4th 2020

1 Hour Power Outage at Micron Manufacturing Plant Could Mean Increased DRAM Prices Throughout 2021

Semiconductor manufacturing is a risky business. Not only is it heavily capital-intensive, which means that even some state-backed would-be players can fail in pooling together the required resources for an industry break-in; but the entire nature of the manufacturing process is a delicate balance of materials, nearly-endless fabrication, cleanup, and QA testing. Wafer manufacturing can take months between the initial fabrication stages through to the final packaging process; and this means that power outages or material contamination can jeopardize an outrageous number of in-fabrication semiconductors.

Recent news as covered by DigiTimes place one of Micron's fabrication plants in Taiwan as being hit with a 1-hour long power outage, which can potentially affect 10% of the entire predictable DRAM supply for the coming months (a power outage affects every step of the manufacturing process). Considering the increased demand for DRAM components due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated demand for DRAM-inside products such as PCs, DIY DRAM, laptops, and tablets, industry players are now expecting a price hike for DRAM throughout 2021 until this sudden supply constraint is dealt with. As we know, DRAM manufacturers and resellers are a fickle bunch when it comes to increasing prices in even the slightest, dream-like hint of reduced supply. It remains to be seen how much of this 10% DRAM supply is actually salvageable, but projecting from past experience, a price hike seems to be all but guaranteed.
Sources: DigiTimes, via reddit
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86 Comments on 1 Hour Power Outage at Micron Manufacturing Plant Could Mean Increased DRAM Prices Throughout 2021

#27
ThrashZone
Hi,
Micro sux anyway
Samsung a-die is going to be wicked :-)
Posted on Reply
#28
B-Real
Only two characters needed to describe this: :D
Posted on Reply
#29
bug
puma99dk|This sucks and not RTX 30 series cards will properly increase more in price :banghead:
The article says DRAM, so GDDR should not be affected. Or so I'm hoping.
It doesn't really matter in the end, I have my eyes set on Ampere, but I'm not paying a cent over MSRP. And I can wait till that happens, since clearly a Christmas gift is out of the question.
Posted on Reply
#30
phanbuey
So they must be 24/7/365 if one hour can not be made up.
There's 8760 hours in a year so.... I guess we could expect 0.0114% cost increase?
Posted on Reply
#31
rtwjunkie
PC Gaming Enthusiast
Really a 1 hour power outage translates into more than a 1 hour down time on production.
Posted on Reply
#32
TheDeeGee
I read it's taking 2,5 months to make a DRAM chip from start to finish, and starting up the product line takes days. Not to mention the possible unusable wafers stuck in the machines.

Explains the price raise really.

That said, Samsung B-die is the way to go anyways.
Posted on Reply
#33
Searing
Well even though consumers have lost their mind (and massive government spending stimulus), there has been weaker corporate demand for NAND and memory recently. Who knows.
Posted on Reply
#34
milewski1015
Hmmm. Samsung B-die becomes the go-to, factory catches fire. Micron E-die starts getting highly recommended, factory has power outage...I'm sensing a pattern here
Posted on Reply
#35
windwhirl
milewski1015Hmmm. Samsung B-die becomes the go-to, factory catches fire. Micron E-die starts getting highly recommended, factory has power outage...I'm sensing a pattern here
I see people still recommending the Samsung B-die all the time lately, but I thought that its quality had gone down a while ago?
Posted on Reply
#36
randomUser
windwhirlI see people still recommending the Samsung B-die all the time lately, but I thought that its quality had gone down a while ago?
No. Quality is good. It jis that B-die is not longer manufactured.
Posted on Reply
#37
milewski1015
windwhirlI see people still recommending the Samsung B-die all the time lately, but I thought that its quality had gone down a while ago?
It's not that it's any worse, it's just that it's not as much in dire need anymore since Ryzen's memory compatibility has greatly improved. B-die is still probably the go-to for overclocking enthusiasts, but Micron E-die will still allow you a couple hundred MHz more (although without as tight timings as B-die) for cheaper.
Posted on Reply
#39
MKRonin
randomUserNo. Quality is good. It jis that B-die is not longer manufactured.
Samsung still manufactures B-die chips, they just stopped making their own DIMMs with B-die.
Posted on Reply
#40
MikeSnow
pjl321When these companies are so big and we are talking about such massive amounts of money when things go wrong (which they seem to regularly too), why on earth don't they have a giant Tesla Powerwall like the Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia? It would cost next to nothing compared to these losses and could run them for a good few hours if it needs to.
Considering the losses from a power outage, I'm sure they had some batteries and generators as a backup. But sometimes they fail when you need them the most. For example, in Florida datacenters, before a hurricane, they start the generators and switch to them before the hurricane hits, and switch back to utility power when they are sure the danger has passed.

But for an unexpected utility power outage, you usually have a few minutes of battery power, in which the generators should be able to start and take the load. If they don't start, or they start but there is some kind of problem switching to them, it's over. Of course, they should be tested properly regularly, be of good quality depending on the risk, but even then there is a risk something will fail when the time comes.

Of course, in the end it's a matter of costs. With more money you can have a more reliable system. I'm sure they had something, but clearly it was not enough, or there was human error involved. Or both.
Posted on Reply
#41
Caring1
milewski1015Hmmm. Samsung B-die becomes the go-to, factory catches fire. Micron E-die starts getting highly recommended, factory has power outage...I'm sensing a pattern here
Industrial sabotage?
That's one way to increase demand for your product.
Posted on Reply
#42
milewski1015
Caring1Industrial sabotage?
That's one way to increase demand for your product.
More like decrease supply while demand remains the same
Posted on Reply
#43
Nkd
The master plan lol
Posted on Reply
#44
evernessince
When it is more profitable to not produce goods, it makes sense to ensure that your backup power systems are not properly maintained.

Capitalism can waste labor just as well as communism.
Posted on Reply
#45
R-T-B
I swear. If this is even true it's negligence at this point. It's like they never heard of battery backup for something worth so much, or a backup generator.

I feel like the government should just tell them "no too bad, so sad, eat the cost."
Posted on Reply
#46
pjl321
TechLurkerBecause then they won't even have the excuse to explain why they decided to just increase their pricing for a year. 1 accidental or deliberate brownout every few years is enough to temporarily raise pricing. Spending that sum on a battery or fossil-fuel backup just isn't worth the free price increase with every brownout.
That seems to be a common theme but surely they are in charge of their own pricing, they can choose whatever they want to charge and customers can choose whether to pay it or not.
Legacy-ZAExactly.

But now you know; they are planned to raise prices, as if people can just keep paying more forever, what a bunch of idiots really.
That seems to be a common reason people thinks it happens but surely they are in charge of their own pricing, they can choose whatever they want to charge and customers can choose whether to pay it or not.
Posted on Reply
#47
windwhirl
R-T-BI swear. If this is even true it's negligence at this point. It's like they never heard of battery backup for something worth so much, or a backup generator.

I feel like the government should just tell them "no too bad, so sad, eat the cost."
In fact, thinking about it, their equipment must be really sensitive, so I imagine they already have some sort of protection against voltage spikes and the like. It shouldn't be all that expensive or space-hogging to add backup power supplies. I don't know how the process is done, but I imagine that having at least a few extra minutes of power would be enough to cut the loss somewhat.
Posted on Reply
#48
R-T-B
windwhirlIn fact, thinking about it, their equipment must be really sensitive, so I imagine they already have some sort of protection against voltage spikes and the like. It shouldn't be all that expensive or space-hogging to add backup power supplies. I don't know how the process is done, but I imagine that having at least a few extra minutes of power would be enough to cut the loss somewhat.
All they need is a few seconds really for a backup power plant to kick in. This kind of money justifies it. It's not like they can't afford a big ass generator.
Posted on Reply
#49
dragontamer5788
I'd assume they had a backup generator, but that backup generator failed for an hour.

The problem with backup plans is that backup plans are rarely tested. It could be as simple as "backup generator's gasoline went busted" or "not enough oil to start the engine", and bam, you have actual downtime.

---------

Or if its a battery-backup system, then "batteries couldn't hold a charge as long as expected", or similar effect that you won't figure out until you actually experience a mains outage. An aged battery will have a lower amperage for output, and that alone can cause an outage and/or issues. (Ex: you get 110V @ 50Hz instead of @60, so you have 18% less power than expected).
Posted on Reply
#50
R-T-B
dragontamer5788I'd assume they had a backup generator, but that backup generator failed for an hour.

The problem with backup plans is that backup plans are rarely tested. It could be as simple as "backup generator's gasoline went busted" or "not enough oil to start the engine", and bam, you have actual downtime.

---------

Or if its a battery-backup system, then "batteries couldn't hold a charge as long as expected", or similar effect that you won't figure out until you actually experience a mains outage. An aged battery will have a lower amperage for output, and that alone can cause an outage and/or issues. (Ex: you get 110V @ 50Hz instead of @60, so you have 18% less power than expected).
Yeah, at this point though this excuse has been used too many times for them not to be testing this system regularly. It's a "negilgence" type scenario even if it is true, as I said. They just decided it was cheaper to let it happen to jack up the costs, or outright fake it. Take your pick, both are bad.
Posted on Reply
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