Thursday, November 17th 2022
NVIDIA Plans GeForce RTX 4060 Launch for Summer 2023, Performance Rivaling RTX 3070
NVIDIA is reportedly planning to ramp its GeForce "Ada" generation into the high-volume performance segment by Summer 2023, with the introduction of the GeForce RTX 4060. The card is expected to launch somewhere around June, 2023. The card will be based on the 4 nm "AD106" silicon, the 4th chip based on the "Ada Lovelace" graphics architecture. Wolstame. a reliable source with NVIDIA leaks as Lenovo's Legion gaming desktop product manager, predicts that the RTX 4060 performance could end up matching that of the current RTX 3070 at a lower price-point.
This should make it a reasonably fast graphics card for 1440p AAA gaming with high-ultra settings, and ray tracing thrown in. What's interesting is if NVIDIA is expected to extend the DLSS 3 frame-generation feature to even this segment of graphics cards, which means a near-100% frame rate uplift can be had. Other predictions include a board power expected to be in the range of 150-180 W, and a 10% generational price-increase, which would mean that the RTX 4060 would have a launch-price similar to that of the RTX 3060 Ti (USD $399).
Sources:
harukaze5719 (Twitter), VideoCardz
This should make it a reasonably fast graphics card for 1440p AAA gaming with high-ultra settings, and ray tracing thrown in. What's interesting is if NVIDIA is expected to extend the DLSS 3 frame-generation feature to even this segment of graphics cards, which means a near-100% frame rate uplift can be had. Other predictions include a board power expected to be in the range of 150-180 W, and a 10% generational price-increase, which would mean that the RTX 4060 would have a launch-price similar to that of the RTX 3060 Ti (USD $399).
165 Comments on NVIDIA Plans GeForce RTX 4060 Launch for Summer 2023, Performance Rivaling RTX 3070
You said that it makes sense to get a previous generation card for about the same amount of $$$, I said that, while that makes sense, it may not make sense for everyone, because of the reasons I mentioned.
Will you fall for it?
When hell freezes over.
I am only comparing raw performance (not DLSS/(soon)FSR 3.0 software tricks), to come up with a conclusion about generational jump, stagnation, or even regression in a certain price point. And instead of features or efficiency or model names, I am using price points as the main parameter. I don't say "buy the old one at the same price". That doesn't make sense anyway.
"What fps was I getting on average with a $200 card in 2016? In 2020? In 2022?".
Well, you know something? Let's answer that, but let's go far in the past. Someone posted somewhere that people shouldn't stay in the past, but focus on present and the future. Considering things are changing, with new generations coming every two years instead of one and usually offering more features than more raw performance, people remembering how the market was 10-15 years ago, are a problem for AMD, Intel and Nvidia today. Because they are more difficult to be impressed by a 10% generation jump in raw performance and a software trick like DLSS/FSR that where called "cheating" 15 years ago.
Let's see, with prices at around $149-$249(there was huge competition in the past and prices where fluctuating rapidly) and keeping it simple by looking only at Nvidia options and based on TechPowerUp's database.
2007: 8600 GTS, $199
2008: 9800 GT, $160, +225% performance increase over 8600 GTS
2009: GTS 250, $199, +24% performance increase.
2010: GTX 460 768MB, $199, +51% performance increase.
2011: GTX 560, $199, +25% performance increase.
2012: GTX 660, $229, +39% performance increase.
2013: GTX 760, $249, +20% performance increase.
2014: ?
2015: GTX 960, $199, +10% performance increase.
2016: GTX 1060 3GB, $199, +70% performance increase.
2017: ?
2018: ?
2019: GTX 1660, $219, +30% performance increase.
2020: ?
2021: ?
2022: RTX 3050 4GB, $199, +3% performance increase.
Looking above we see a steady increase in performance year after year from 2007 to 2013. The huge performance increase from 8600GTS to 9800GT was a combination of 8600GT/S being junk cards for their prices, while 9800 GT was a great card. Also AMD was pushing really hard, forcing Nvidia to drop prices. After 2013 the only good card was the GTX 1060, even in it's 3GB form. That's why this card is still relevant today. What have we seen in a period of 7 years in that price category after 2016? Honestly? Nothing. About 35% increase and new features that could be useful in games, but not necesserily helpful. I mean, RT support in a 4GB RTX 3050? Maybe DLSS 2.x support is the only thing here worthy of mentioning.
But when there isn't constant generation improvement, when the time comes that someone decides to upgrade, they will be in front of a dilemma. Buy something that it is not much better in raw performance compared to the old card, or just pay much more?
Someone having bought a 9800GT in 2008, after 5 years of use, will pay (probably?) $199 for a discounted GTX 6600 in 2013, or $249 for a GTX 760. The performance jump is HUGE and of course plenty of new features like DirectX 11/12 support, Vulkan support, better OpenGL support, better media codec support, better efficiency, better media encoding, current drivers, lower idle power consumption, modern video out connectors. The same for someone upgrading from GTX 560 from 2011 to a GTX 1060 3GB in 2016, with G-Sync/VRR support and (funnily) FSR 2.x support.
But what are the options for you now? Buy a GTX 1660? Why? Pay extra and buy an RTX 3050 8GB? Why? Go for an RX 6600? If you care about RT performance and after all those years you are convinced like so many others that AMD's drivers are bad, again, why?
So you will (for example) end up paying much more for an RTX 3060 or an RTX 4060, or try your luck in the second hand market for an RTX 3070. You will get probably that same generational performance increase with an RTX 4060, but for probably double cost of what you had payed 5 years ago to go to GTX 1060. And in 5 years that cost will increase even further, because Nvidia is moving prices up and it seems to tie the performance increase with the card's price. The pricier the model, the higher the performance increase from generation to generation.
And I really, really hope that with the mining craze over and Nvidia's latest financials, they will start looking into lowering prices. I do not share the opinion that Nvidia is somehow conspiring to raise prices. Rising prices are simply a consequence of increased pressure on leading manufacturing nodes and of GPU chips getting bigger. Historically, large dies and PCBs with support for >256 bit memory bus have always been expensive. While there is little Nvidia can do about fab capacity, I hope they will start looking at their chip designs from new angles.
In Nvidia's latest financial report that was released a few days ago, they are predicting their profit margin to jump back to 65%.
They might drop prices in case AMD forces them, but I doubt AMD will do so. AMD only announced 2 models with prices of $800 and $900. We might have to wait many more months until we see something new and with a price tag under $400. And even then it will be questionable, in my opinion, if that new card will be bringing meaningful performance improvement over the older model and not just DLSS/FSR 3.0 marketing tricks.
As for Nvidia raising prices. It's not a conspiracy theory. It's a business decision. And it has nothing to do with GPUs getting bigger. CPUs also got bigger. We where buying 4 cores in 2010 and even after a period of stagnation because of AMD's Bulldozer, we buy today 12-16 bigger, more complex cores at the same prices(not talking about E cores here). Bus had gone mostly down, from 256bit-384bit even 512bit for the high end cards to 128bit-256bit, while power consumption in mid range models is lower than that of hi end models of the past. In the end the price of a high end GPU card is now much higher than the combination of an expensive motherboard, 32GB of RAM and a top 16-24 cores CPU. I doubt a top motherboard, top ram and top CPU model cost more to manufacture than a top graphics card. And I doubt an RTX 3050 with 8GB of RAM, cost more to manufacture than a b660 mATX motherboard, 16GB or DDR4 and a i3 12100 CPU.
Prices of GPUs have gone up much faster than anything else.
Edit: Also, even if not directly comparable, AMD's gross margin isn't significantly lower: www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/gross-margin
It's almost 50%, even if it dipped a little recently.
Oh, and by the way, AMD's drivers aren't as bad as they used to be. In fact, RDNA 2 drivers are as stable as Nvidia's. ;)
Edit: typo
The 6600 series are an amazing deal. People upgrading from a 1060-like card should look there, and not wait for an overpriced 4060, imo.
If you don't want to buy an AMD card again just because you got burned once with driver support for one application, that's fine. If you don't want to date again just because one of your exes snored, that's okay, too. You can live your whole life alone if you want to. You can also spend unreasonable amounts of money on an Nvidia Ada card, let me not stop you. ;) Did you read my whole post? There are other Nvidia cards out there that are much better deals than the 4080 or 4090!
To get to their stable driver today, AMD basically wiped the slate clean with RDNA, throwing everything that came before it under the bus. As you have noted, even with a clean slate, the first RDNA iteration was still a bumpy ride. Today the drivers are much better, but you can't fault people that were bitten in the past for still having a bitter taste in their mouths.
I'm not denying that there aren't those that simply parrot "driver instability" simply because they don't like AMD, but let's not pretend that's all there is to it.
If people want to continue parroting "driver instability" instead of asking users and doing some research, that's their choice. I accept it, just don't agree with it. They should specify that they're too lazy to look into things before bringing up past issues that are totally irrelevant with today's products and misleading other people as a result.