Thursday, February 9th 2023
Counterpoint Research: Arm Laptops to Remain Resilient Amid Global PC Market Weakness
The global PC market has been experiencing a demand downtrend after the cooling down of COVID-19 in 2022. The market saw its shipments decline 15% YoY in 2022 and is expected to see another high single-digit decline in 2023, according to Counterpoint Research's data. However, among all the PC sub-sectors, Arm-based laptops are expected to show a comparatively resilient demand throughout the coming quarters thanks to Apple's success with the MacBook series, increasing ecosystem support and vanishing performance gap with x86 offerings.
Apple led the market with self-designed M-series solution
Apple launched its in-house M1 chip for the MacBook series in 2020. This gradually allowed iPhone and iPad apps to seamlessly operate on MacOS with state-of-the-art power consumption management and battery life among the M1 MacBook's head-to-head competing features with the same level of computing performance. Since then, the market share of Arm-based laptops started to increase, from less than 2% to over 12% at the end of 2022, according to Counterpoint Research data. Apple dominated the Arm laptop market in 2022 with a 90% share. Apple's migration to its self-designed CPU has proved to be a shot in the arm for vendors who were sitting on the fence looking forward to developing Arm-based solutions.
Qualcomm and MediaTek likely to follow in the near term
Major global CPU providers Qualcomm and MediaTek have also expressed their interest in Arm-based solutions. As the two are experienced smartphone CPU vendors, they have worked with the Arm ecosystem for many years. Therefore, it would not be a very difficult mission for them to include Arm-based laptops/PCs in their product road maps. Although there have been some delays due to reasons like component shortages, lawsuit and product development, the two chip design giants are expected to launch Arm-based laptop solutions no later than 2024 to support incremental demand. We expect Qualcomm and MediaTek's solutions to see over 50% growth YoY on Arm laptops in 2024-2025.
Arm-based laptops to gain share at Intel and AMD's expense
However, the global PC market exited the expansion cycle in 2022 and is expected to see a shipment decline in 2023 again. Therefore, Arm's share gains will inevitably come at the expense of mainly two other major vendors in the market - Intel and AMD. Based on our forecasts, we believe Arm could ultimately take around 25% share of the laptop market by the end of 2027. On the other hand, as the largest vendor in the PC market, Intel will suffer the most, losing almost 10% share to Arm solutions in five years. But it will still dominate the PC market with over 60% share.
Above all, we believe the market share of Arm-based PCs, especially laptops, could further expand in the coming years and penetrate a variety of sub-sectors. The Chromebook boom of 2020 was just the beginning. We are forecasting an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem with chip vendors working more closely with OEMs on product offerings. The rising consumer awareness of Arm's competitiveness versus Intel's long-lasting x86 could also support market share expansion. Ultimately, we believe Arm-based laptop solutions will have a higher than 21% share by the end of 2025.
Apple launched its in-house M1 chip for the MacBook series in 2020. This gradually allowed iPhone and iPad apps to seamlessly operate on MacOS with state-of-the-art power consumption management and battery life among the M1 MacBook's head-to-head competing features with the same level of computing performance. Since then, the market share of Arm-based laptops started to increase, from less than 2% to over 12% at the end of 2022, according to Counterpoint Research data. Apple dominated the Arm laptop market in 2022 with a 90% share. Apple's migration to its self-designed CPU has proved to be a shot in the arm for vendors who were sitting on the fence looking forward to developing Arm-based solutions.
Qualcomm and MediaTek likely to follow in the near term
Major global CPU providers Qualcomm and MediaTek have also expressed their interest in Arm-based solutions. As the two are experienced smartphone CPU vendors, they have worked with the Arm ecosystem for many years. Therefore, it would not be a very difficult mission for them to include Arm-based laptops/PCs in their product road maps. Although there have been some delays due to reasons like component shortages, lawsuit and product development, the two chip design giants are expected to launch Arm-based laptop solutions no later than 2024 to support incremental demand. We expect Qualcomm and MediaTek's solutions to see over 50% growth YoY on Arm laptops in 2024-2025.
Arm-based laptops to gain share at Intel and AMD's expense
However, the global PC market exited the expansion cycle in 2022 and is expected to see a shipment decline in 2023 again. Therefore, Arm's share gains will inevitably come at the expense of mainly two other major vendors in the market - Intel and AMD. Based on our forecasts, we believe Arm could ultimately take around 25% share of the laptop market by the end of 2027. On the other hand, as the largest vendor in the PC market, Intel will suffer the most, losing almost 10% share to Arm solutions in five years. But it will still dominate the PC market with over 60% share.
Above all, we believe the market share of Arm-based PCs, especially laptops, could further expand in the coming years and penetrate a variety of sub-sectors. The Chromebook boom of 2020 was just the beginning. We are forecasting an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem with chip vendors working more closely with OEMs on product offerings. The rising consumer awareness of Arm's competitiveness versus Intel's long-lasting x86 could also support market share expansion. Ultimately, we believe Arm-based laptop solutions will have a higher than 21% share by the end of 2025.
17 Comments on Counterpoint Research: Arm Laptops to Remain Resilient Amid Global PC Market Weakness
Compatibility issues: ARM-based systems use a different architecture compared to traditional x86-based systems. This means that software designed for x86 systems may not work on ARM systems without modification. This could result in compatibility issues and reduced software availability, particularly for older or niche applications.
Performance: While ARM processors have come a long way in recent years, they still lag behind x86 processors in terms of raw performance. This can result in slower performance for demanding tasks such as gaming, video editing, and other resource-intensive applications.
Cost: Currently, ARM-based systems tend to be more expensive than their x86 counterparts, which may make them a less attractive option for cost-conscious consumers.
Battery life: One of the key advantages of ARM processors is their low power consumption, which leads to longer battery life. However, this benefit may not be as pronounced in laptops and PCs where the battery is a smaller component of the overall system.
Limited upgradability: ARM-based systems often have limited upgradability options, which can be a drawback for users who want to upgrade their systems over time.
Overall, while there are some benefits to using ARM-based systems, there are also several factors that may make them less attractive to consumers compared to traditional x86-based systems.
Instead of a mid tier with passive cooling, too much slow RAM, not quite enough disk space for a 5 year life cycle and the inability to cut clocks and power and the fast boot battery drain option… use a faster larger disk.