Wednesday, February 26th 2025

Chinese Mature Nodes Undercut Western Silicon Pricing, to Capture up to 28% of the Market This Year

Chinese manufacturers have seized significant market share in legacy chip production, driving prices down and creating intense competitive pressure that Western competitors cannot match. The so-called "China shock" in the semiconductor sector appears as mature node production shifts East at accelerating rates. Legacy process nodes, which are usually 16/20/22/24 nm and larger, form the backbone of consumer electronics and automotive applications while providing established manufacturers with stable revenue streams for R&D investment. However, this economic framework now faces structural disruption as Chinese fabs leverage domestic demand and government support to expand capacity. By Q4 2025, Chinese facilities will control 28% of global mature chip production, with projections indicating further expansion to 39% by 2027.

This rapid capacity growth directly results from Beijing's strategic pivot following US export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, which redirected investment toward mature nodes where technological barriers remain lower. This is happening in parallel with companies like SMIC, although isolated, which are developing lithography solutions for cutting-edge 5 nm and 3 nm wafer production. For older nodes, The market impact appears most pronounced in specialized materials like silicon carbide (SiC). Industry benchmark 6-inch SiC wafers from Wolfspeed were previously $1,500, compared to current $500 pricing from Guangzhou Summit Crystal Semiconductor—representing a 67% price compression that Western manufacturers cannot profitably match. Multiple semiconductor firms report significant financial strain from this pricing pressure. Wolfspeed has implemented 20% workforce reductions following a 96% market capitalization decline, while Onsemi recently announced 9% staff cuts. With more Chinese expansion into the mature node category, Western companies can't keep up with the lowered costs of what is now becoming a commodity.
Source: via Tom's Hardware
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26 Comments on Chinese Mature Nodes Undercut Western Silicon Pricing, to Capture up to 28% of the Market This Year

#26
Vayra86
AssimilatorThat article is wholly incorrect. The problem is not that the PRC cannot make sufficiently high-quality ball bearings, it's simply that it's cheaper for them to import those bearings from Japan than it is to produce them locally, so they don't bother producing them locally. This is how globalism works.


I didn't bemoan Valve's actions, merely pointed out that claiming they are acting out of altruistic is dishonest, because there is no altruism in capitalism.

As for the PRC's disregard of intellectual property, I don't like it, but then I don't like the bulls**t that is patent law either. The notion that a piece of knowledge can somehow be controlled by a single party, solely because they were the first to register their discovery of said knowledge, is a nonsensical capitalist construct that's an anathema of science and progress.
Did you know even the mighty US imports high quality steel from Tata in Netherlands? It is a grade of steel they are incapable of making. Incapable as in, they would have to spend and invest for many years to have that capability domestically. So yes, its cheaper... but time is a critical factor. Similarly, look at chip production in China. Sure they can make low nm- chips. But the cost and yields of it are not economically viable. ASML machinery similarly uses lenses and other key components that simply arent produced anywhere other than with their partner suppliers.

Do the math.. its not just about cost. Its about capability and vulnerability of industries and as a result, economies.
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