Friday, September 28th 2018

Intel At Least 5 Years Behind TSMC and May Never Catch Up: Analyst

Intel's in-house sub-10 nanometer silicon fabrication dreams seem more distant by the day. Raymond James analyst Chris Caso, in an interview with CNBC stated that Intel's 10 nm process development could set the company back by at least 5 years behind TSMC. In its most recent financial results call, Intel revised its 10 nm outlook to reflect that the first 10 nm processors could only come out by the end of 2019. "Intel's biggest strategic problem is their delay on 10nm production - we don't expect a 10nm server chip from Intel for two years," analyst Chris Caso said in a note to clients Tuesday. "10nm delays create a window for competitors, and the window may never again close."

By that time, Intel will have missed several competitive milestones behind TSMC, which is in final stages of quantitatively rolling out its 7 nm process. Caso predicts that by the time Intel goes sub-10 nm (7 nm or something in that nanoscopic ballpark), TSMC and Samsung could each be readying their 5 nm or 3 nm process roll-outs. A Rosenblatt Securities report that came out late-August was even more gloomy about the situation at Intel foundry. It predicted that foundry delays could set the company back "5, 6, or even 7" years behind rivals. Intel is already beginning offload some of its 14 nm manufacturing to TSMC. Meanwhile, AMD is reportedly planning to entirely rely on TSMC to make its future generations of "Zen" processors.
Sources: CNBC, MyDrivers
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39 Comments on Intel At Least 5 Years Behind TSMC and May Never Catch Up: Analyst

#27
Alexandrus
Clearly, an analyst who understands little or nothing of the technological process, since there is no direct comparison between Intel's 10nm lithography and TSMC's 10nm, if the later even exists.
Posted on Reply
#28
dwade
They're just trying to bump their AMD stocks higher LMAO. It's the same with these articles where AMD "may" get X amount of market share, AMD "may" do this, AMD "may" do that.
Posted on Reply
#29
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
londisteHowever:
Aaannnd... feel free to disregard anything this guy says on technical side of things or predictions.
Intel is expecting to get to 7nm around the same time TSMC/Samsung get to 5nm. That has been the plan all along including before their issues with 10nm.
I would think that what Intel's expecting is irrelevant at this point. Sub-10nm brings new challanges yet again and we'll know how it goes for them only when they actually reach that point.
Posted on Reply
#30
notb
dwadeThey're just trying to bump their AMD stocks higher LMAO. It's the same with these articles where AMD "may" get X amount of market share, AMD "may" do this, AMD "may" do that.
Yup. AMD "may" reach 30%, but the articles never say how much share they have now. So there's just no way to validate these forecasts.
If AMD has such great results, they should us give us precise data. At this point they're even unwilling to separate CPU and GPU - we all know why...
Posted on Reply
#31
R-T-B
dwadeThey're just trying to bump their AMD stocks higher LMAO. It's the same with these articles where AMD "may" get X amount of market share, AMD "may" do this, AMD "may" do that.
Why analyze anything? Real men invest blindly. /s
Posted on Reply
#32
hat
Enthusiast
R-T-BWhy analyze anything? Real men invest blindly. /s
They also use real cores.
Posted on Reply
#33
R-T-B
hatThey also use real cores.
Like ET. Thanks for putting that image in my head, mailman!
Posted on Reply
#34
hat
Enthusiast
R-T-BLike ET. Thanks for putting that image in my head, mailman!
u wot m8

I was referring to the "real men use real cores" statement/ad AMD did. How the hell did you get ET out of that? And @TheMailMan78 is that way --->
Posted on Reply
#35
R0H1T
notbYup. AMD "may" reach 30%, but the articles never say how much share they have now. So there's just no way to validate these forecasts.
If AMD has such great results, they should us give us precise data. At this point they're even unwilling to separate CPU and GPU - we all know why...
Probably because it's nearly impossible to estimate that, for instance does Intel (or AMD) reveal how many chips they sell each quarter, their clientele, segment wise breakdown et al?
Posted on Reply
#36
hat
Enthusiast
I wonder what the sales figures actually represent. Nobody directly buys processors from Intel or AMD. There's a supply chain of sorts, but I don't know how long it is... I wonder if unsold processors sitting on the shelf as of yet still count as sold, because Intel did sell them to somebody already, just not the end user.
Posted on Reply
#37
R0H1T
hatI wonder what the sales figures actually represent. Nobody directly buys processors from Intel or AMD. There's a supply chain of sorts, but I don't know how long it is... I wonder if unsold processors sitting on the shelf as of yet still count as sold, because Intel did sell them to somebody already, just not the end user.
I believe the big cloud providers Google, MS, Amazon or the likes of FB, Twitter buy most of their chips directly.
Posted on Reply
#38
hat
Enthusiast
R0H1TI believe the big cloud providers Google, MS, Amazon or the likes of FB, Twitter buy most of their chips directly.
Could be if they had a large enough order...
Posted on Reply
#39
HTC
R0H1TI believe the big cloud providers Google, MS, Amazon or the likes of FB, Twitter buy most of their chips directly.
I'd expect so: i'm guessing the likes of 500+ chips per order (perhaps even 1000+), which obviously are very VERY expensive. Seriously doubt any supply chain has the amount of CPUs required for this due to the prices involved plus it would be advantageous to both the buyer and the seller to have the sale directly:

- the buyer because there may be potential "discounts" to have that big an order of CPUs, not to mention the elimination of "the middle man" in the deal, which further brings the price down
- the seller because when they do make a sale, even with "discounted prices", they make a heck of a lot of money really fast in what would otherwise take a long time to achieve
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