Monday, October 30th 2023
US Government Can't Stop Chinese Semiconductor Advancement, Notes Former TSMC VP
The Chinese semiconductor industry is advancing, and interestingly, it is growing rapidly under sanctions, even with the blacklisting of companies by the US government. China's semiconductor industry is mainly represented by companies like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and Huawei Technologies, who are leading the investment and progress in both chip manufacturing and chip design. According to the latest interview with Bloomberg, former TSMC Vice President Burn J. Lin said that the US government and its sanctions can not stop the advancement of Chinese semiconductor companies. Currently, Lin notes that SMIC and Huawei can use older machinery to produce more advanced chips.
Even so, SMIC could progress to 5 nm technology using existing equipment, particularly with scanners and other machinery from ASML. Development under sanctions would also force China to experiment with new materials and other chip packaging techniques that yield higher performance targets. SMIC has already developed a 7 nm semiconductor manufacturing node, which Huawei used for its latest Mate 60 Pro smartphone, based on Huawei's custom HiSilicon Kirin 9000S chip. Similarly, the transition is expected to happen to the 5 nm node as well, and it is only a matter of time before we see other nodes appear. "It is just not possible for the US to completely prevent China from improving its chip technology," noted Burn J. Lin.
Source:
Bloomberg
Even so, SMIC could progress to 5 nm technology using existing equipment, particularly with scanners and other machinery from ASML. Development under sanctions would also force China to experiment with new materials and other chip packaging techniques that yield higher performance targets. SMIC has already developed a 7 nm semiconductor manufacturing node, which Huawei used for its latest Mate 60 Pro smartphone, based on Huawei's custom HiSilicon Kirin 9000S chip. Similarly, the transition is expected to happen to the 5 nm node as well, and it is only a matter of time before we see other nodes appear. "It is just not possible for the US to completely prevent China from improving its chip technology," noted Burn J. Lin.
58 Comments on US Government Can't Stop Chinese Semiconductor Advancement, Notes Former TSMC VP
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With regards to Taiwan, remember that MediaTek is Taiwanese, and a fair number of chips are designed entirely in Taiwan as well. Samsung designs and produces most of the RAM in the world too, so that's not Western tech either.
The chipmaking and chip-designing fields are extremely competitive. Its not obvious to me that "The West" is obviously superior for chips anymore. And this is going to be a big deal when it comes to missile production for the next war, its quite possible for China to outproduce us thanks to crazy tech-hubs like Shenzhen. Cities like Guangdong are extremely high-tech and have significant design services as well, with PH.d level designers.
And besides, when war breaks out, production is all that matters. USA is tied to Taiwan's production and we're separated by the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, Taiwan is within missile-range of China and a potential Chinese blockade of the island would completely shut down Taiwan's exports (and therefore negate USA from having NVidia, AMD, iPhone, or other chips). All of those designs will be worthless in the hypothetical battles. Fortunately, USA is forward thinking and we've managed to convince Taiwan/TSMC to build a factory in Arizona in case the worst-comes-to-worst, but its incredibly important for this Arizona factory to truly become productive.
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Look: only in China can you get a service like JLCPCB that can automatically design, assemble, and manufacture a board for cheap. They have significant technology, not just internet-based Web GUIs to make the Gerber->PCB process easy, but also legions of pick-and-place machines that are pre-loaded to automatically populate these boards and automatically send them to reflow ovens. The whole process is automated in a way that no Western company can compete against. (See these services here: jlcpcb.com/capabilities/pcb-assembly-capabilities). They are extremely innovative and mass-production driven. Do not discount their ingenuity just because they're our rivals.
EDIT: A naval battle today will primarily be chips vs chips. Chinese missiles will be trying to hit targets in Taiwan, while US Destroyers/Cruisers will be shooting Patriot missiles to defend against them. Missiles are made up of... chips... these days. Whoever can produce more PCBs and chips and create more high-quality missiles will be the winner of the contest. RADAR is run by chips. F35 Jets are run by chips. Chinese Spy Balloons are made up of chips. Drones are made up of chips.
There's certainly issues with our politics and behaviors. But abstractly just shitting on everything without context isn't helpful IMO. I've hoped to elevate the discussion with my previous points by drilling into the specific issues at play with the geopolitics with this US Government vs China vs TSMC/Taiwan thing going on.
The biggest play, right now, is the rise of Chinese Wolf Warrior diplomacy in recent years (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warrior_diplomacy), turning them into a far more aggressive state today, than they were 10 or 20 years ago. Why are they becoming so militant? Why did the Chinese build a Navy that now outnumbers the US Navy? Why are the Chinese building the world's fastest missiles that can pierce any anti-missile defense system? The answer is obvious, they're preparing to fight the USA, and based on simulations and wargames, it seems like they're doing a good job at these preparations.
All diplomacy has to be in context. The growth of Chinese chipmaking capabilities, especially with regards to RADAR / targeting systems that directly lead to improved missiles, is making it really easy to see where the next decade is going.
Well, at least easy for the people paying attention. And I hope enough people are paying attention to the issue.