Tuesday, May 7th 2024
DRAM Contract Prices for Q2 Adjusted to a 13-18% Increase; NAND Flash around 15-20%
TrendForce's latest forecasts reveal contract prices for DRAM in the second quarter are expected to increase by 13-18%, while NAND Flash contract prices have been adjusted to a 15-20% Only eMMC/UFS will be seeing a smaller price increase of about 10%.
Before the 4/03 earthquake, TrendForce had initially predicted that DRAM contract prices would see a seasonal rise of 3-8% and NAND Flash 13-18%, significantly tapering from Q1 as seen from spot price indicators which showed weakening price momentum and reduced transaction volumes. This was primarily due to subdued demand outside of AI applications, particularly with no signs of recovery in demand for notebooks and smartphones. Inventory levels were gradually increasing, especially among PC OEMs. Additionally, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices having risen for 2-3 consecutive quarters, the willingness of buyers to accept further substantial price increases had diminished.
Post-earthquake, the market heard scattered reports of PC OEM suppliers accepting significant increases in DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices due to special considerations, but these were isolated transactions. By late April—after a new round of contract price negotiations were completed—the increases were larger than initially expected. This pushed TrendForce to revise upward Q2 contract price increases for both DRAM and NAND Flash, reflecting not only the buyers' desire to support the value of their inventories but also considerations of supply and demand prospects for the AI market.
TrendForce reports that manufacturers are wary of potential crowding out effects on HBM capacity. Specifically, Samsung's HBM3e products, which utilize the 1alpha process node, are projected to use about 60% of this capacity by the end of 2024. This substantial allocation is expected to constrict DDR5 suppliers, particularly as HBM3e production significantly increases in Q3. In response, buyers are strategically increasing their stock in Q2 to prepare for anticipated HBM shortages beginning in the third quarter.
As energy efficiency becomes increasingly crucial for AI inference servers, North American CSPs are adopting QLC enterprise SSDs as their preferred storage solutions. This shift is boosting demand for QLC enterprise SSDs causing rapid inventory depletion among some suppliers and making them hesitant to sell. Additionally, due to the uncertain recovery in consumer product demand, suppliers are generally conservative about capital investments in non-HBM wafer capacities, particularly for NAND Flash, which is currently priced at the breakeven point.
Source:
TrendForce
Before the 4/03 earthquake, TrendForce had initially predicted that DRAM contract prices would see a seasonal rise of 3-8% and NAND Flash 13-18%, significantly tapering from Q1 as seen from spot price indicators which showed weakening price momentum and reduced transaction volumes. This was primarily due to subdued demand outside of AI applications, particularly with no signs of recovery in demand for notebooks and smartphones. Inventory levels were gradually increasing, especially among PC OEMs. Additionally, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices having risen for 2-3 consecutive quarters, the willingness of buyers to accept further substantial price increases had diminished.
TrendForce reports that manufacturers are wary of potential crowding out effects on HBM capacity. Specifically, Samsung's HBM3e products, which utilize the 1alpha process node, are projected to use about 60% of this capacity by the end of 2024. This substantial allocation is expected to constrict DDR5 suppliers, particularly as HBM3e production significantly increases in Q3. In response, buyers are strategically increasing their stock in Q2 to prepare for anticipated HBM shortages beginning in the third quarter.
As energy efficiency becomes increasingly crucial for AI inference servers, North American CSPs are adopting QLC enterprise SSDs as their preferred storage solutions. This shift is boosting demand for QLC enterprise SSDs causing rapid inventory depletion among some suppliers and making them hesitant to sell. Additionally, due to the uncertain recovery in consumer product demand, suppliers are generally conservative about capital investments in non-HBM wafer capacities, particularly for NAND Flash, which is currently priced at the breakeven point.
19 Comments on DRAM Contract Prices for Q2 Adjusted to a 13-18% Increase; NAND Flash around 15-20%
Perhaps manufacturers now have good enough technology, and enough capacity, to make taller stacks of NAND dies than before, and achieve better packaging yields.
So @bonehead123 , your SN850X's aren't such a great speculative currency if you have mostly 4TB ones in the shipping containers behind your barn. 2TB is better. The SN770, which you don't like, is better yet. But I'm looking at Euroland prices, not the US.
B) They are in my workshop, not in my barn hahaha, but yes, they will stay in their original packaging until I need to install them...
C) How do you know I don't like the 770 ???? I have a few of those too, like in my wife's lappy and some external back-ups, which don't need the better performance of the 850x
The 2 TB Kingston KC3000 drive I have was the equivalent of US$229 when I got in 2022 and it was then considered a good price for it, as it had been selling for $300+ since launch.
Right now it's going for the equivalent of US$152 in Taiwan (where I bought it), but it was down to around $110 last summer, but that's almost a year ago now.
However, "lesser" brands like PNY is offering their 2 TB XLR8 for as little as US$115, which is only a $15 increase from the bottom price for that drive.
I also built a system for a friend in 2022 and as he has very basic needs, I got him a 1 TB Samsung 980 which was US$80 then and US$74 now.
On the other hand, my 1 TB Solidigm P44 Pro was going for a mere US$62 and it's now retailing for just over US$100.
The exchange rate has had some impact as well, but it's not that big of a change since last summer.
I also want to go AM5 this year for Zen 5 so that means I will need to buy the DDR5 memory ASAP.
The kit I got last summer hasn't changed at all in price and is still the equivalent of US$110.
The question is, will the Zen 5 CPUs support faster RAM?
The industry pivoted away from the consumer and desktop market years ago and it is now very firmly focused on the datacenter.
Look at Nvidia's earnings over the past few years. 2-3 years ago Gaming and Datacenter generated about the same amount of revenue for Nvidia. Today Datacenter revenues are 6x those of Gaming. The obvious sales acceleration of Datacenter three years ago pointed to this situation we are seeing today.
Why the hell build almost 100% of production on the same country ?
this is beyond stupidity
Then prices rise up and customers are not happy, and then blame expensive cost like energy or materials, what a joke...
holding out on picking up the ram until the first Zen 5 reviews.
Then will buy the motherboard next and the CPU last if the delay isn't long I may wait for Zen 5 X3D
This of course does not apply to the 770 IMHO, which is an excellent drive, even without the dram... :D