Thursday, December 2nd 2021
Intel CEO Asks US Government for More Backing, Calls Taiwan Not Stable
Since Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger joined the company earlier this year, the messaging language from Intel has changed radically, as it has become a no-nonsense message of Intel going back to its roots as a leading foundry and a leading chip maker. However, Gelsinger might've overstepped a little bit as of lately, as during a conference in California, he went on record saying that Intel deserves special treatment by the US government, in favor of some of its competitors.
At the same time, it's not hard to see why Intel thinks the US government should favor it and other US companies like Micron and Texas Instruments, over Samsung and TSMC. However, Intel's selling argument here is that investing in non-US companies means that the R&D money and IP ends up abroad, which isn't entirely true when it comes to foundries. Gelsinger also complained about the fact that Samsung and TSMC was getting large government subsidies in their home countries and claimed that because of those subsidies, Intel was competing with Korea and Taiwan, rather than with Samsung and TSMC.
As if that wasn't enough, Gelsinger went on to call Taiwan "not a stable place" due to the current situation between the PRC and Taiwan. He also highlighted the fact that the PRC is infringing on Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on a regular basis, with as many as 27 military aircraft encroaching on a single day. It should be noted that the Taiwan ADIZ actually stretches well inside the PRC, although the areas that the PRC normally enter that are being reported are quite close to Taiwan, rather than flights over PRC territory.
The US government still hasn't reached a conclusion on the CHIPS Act, which is meant to set aside as much as US$52 billion for chipmakers in the US. There's no secret that Intel wants a large share of that money, deservedly so or not. As Intel is slowly moving towards offering foundry services, it makes sense that they would need to invest even more heavily into building foundries, since as we know, there simply aren't enough cutting edge foundries at the moment and too many companies are fighting over the cutting edge nodes these days. That said, scare tactics isn't the way forward, instead Intel should show that they can operate a foundry business just as well as its competitors and try to win over business from them, as that's how you show that you deserve both the business and the investment.
Sources:
Taiwan News, image courtesy of @PGelsinger
At the same time, it's not hard to see why Intel thinks the US government should favor it and other US companies like Micron and Texas Instruments, over Samsung and TSMC. However, Intel's selling argument here is that investing in non-US companies means that the R&D money and IP ends up abroad, which isn't entirely true when it comes to foundries. Gelsinger also complained about the fact that Samsung and TSMC was getting large government subsidies in their home countries and claimed that because of those subsidies, Intel was competing with Korea and Taiwan, rather than with Samsung and TSMC.
The US government still hasn't reached a conclusion on the CHIPS Act, which is meant to set aside as much as US$52 billion for chipmakers in the US. There's no secret that Intel wants a large share of that money, deservedly so or not. As Intel is slowly moving towards offering foundry services, it makes sense that they would need to invest even more heavily into building foundries, since as we know, there simply aren't enough cutting edge foundries at the moment and too many companies are fighting over the cutting edge nodes these days. That said, scare tactics isn't the way forward, instead Intel should show that they can operate a foundry business just as well as its competitors and try to win over business from them, as that's how you show that you deserve both the business and the investment.
128 Comments on Intel CEO Asks US Government for More Backing, Calls Taiwan Not Stable
It just gets too political, but the matter of fact is that life hasn't changed in Taiwan, despite all the threats from the PRC.
As such, I'm just curious what the motivation behind some of the posts here are, since what's the benefit of trashing Taiwan here? They're not the oppressors here and it's a nation that is trying it best to become a democracy, even though at times it feels like a banana republic, especially on the days when the political parties are throwing pig intestines at each other in parliament...
also what shady shit Norway does (you mentioned earlier)?
Are there potential issues? Sure, but I would be more concerned with issues such as water and power shortages than the PRC invading tomorrow. Those are real issues that Taiwan has, especially as there are plans to convert the largest coal power plant here to natural gas, which is going to cause some big power supply issues.
The drought that happened last year and this year is something that is expected to happen again in the future and that is a huge concern for all of the manufacturing industry here as well.
Some work has been done to try and reduce the impact, but it's not going to be enough if there's a similar even in the future, especially if it lasts longer.
I'm not lying awake at night wonder if tomorrow will be the day the PRC invades, although I did freak out a few weeks ago when the Taiwan air force was practising for the national day celebrations and flew our over place at unusually low altitude...
As I mentioned in a different post here, most people aren't even concerned about it in Taiwan.
This is the reply from TSMC.
www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4364198Well, that's true, but based on the world's reliance on Taiwan, it's likely to be different if the PRC decided to do something really foolish. It's possible that the US and the West might decide not to get involved, but Japan is highly likely to get involved, as they know that they're next, if the PRC invades Taiwan. It's also likely that Vietnam would get involved, as despite having a somewhat similar system of government to the PRC, they're non to happy with what's going on. Someone mentioned the Philippines here, but they have an outdated and poorly equipped navy that wouldn't stand a chance. They've already had some skirmishes with the people's liberation army navy (yes, that's what it's called) and it hasn't gone too well for them.
However, a lot of people are missing the fact that the dear leader is having massive issues back home to deal with, although a war could turn focus away from those issues in the short term. That said, when you can't even feed your own people, a war might not be a great idea unless you're planning on starving your nation. If you combine the african swine flu outbreak, the past couple of years of poor harvests due to various weather related issues and little things like the fact that the dear leader has gone out in the news and told people to stop wasting food, the ban on all you can eat restaurants and a few other similar things, the situation there isn't quite what it's made out to be. Add the current power shortage issues and things are starting to line up for a perfect storm at home for Xi.
I wish and hope the people manage to keep their independence, but for the time being, there are question marks. Not many and too worrisome, as you have noted. But at the same time, nobody was able to push China back one inch since they started flexing their muscle.
Taiwan vs PRC is a bit different.
Well, no-one really knows what's going on in the head of emperor Xi, so we're just going to have to wait and see.
All I can say is that so far, Taiwan isn't panicking about it.The current situation is also a lot different.
But if Intel is so concerned about stability, then investing heavily in Israel seems a bit strange.
The Taiwan investment question is a lot more nuanced. It was directed at US government which is putting out over $50B for semiconductor manufacturing investments inside US. The point was about whether - or what share of - the money from government to manufacturers should go to domestic or foreign companies.
But more importantly, the concern Gelsinger is highlighting is not directly about keeping Taiwan's people safe, which you seem to be redirecting it towards. It is about keeping western countries safe.
If all Taiwan made were Bananas, It wouldn't be a concern.
All of a sudden, Taiwan is a separatist province that is being accused of all sorts of things. Yet nothing has really changed, except for the PRC government's opinion.
Yes, there are people in Taiwan that wants Taiwan to be recognised as a real country, instead of whatever it is now. However, Taiwan is obviously already independent, as otherwise it would be relying on the PRC for for a lot of things, so I don't really understand the logic in terms of the terminology used.
Regardless, Pat clearly had some kind of an agenda with his comment, considering he's sending people over to have a negotiation with TSMC in the near future.And now Intel needs TSMC, yet they trash talk Taiwan...
Doesn't seem like a very smart strategy to me.
I can obviously understand that he feels US foundries should get more money than TSMC and Samsung, although oddly enough he didn't mention GlobalFoundries...
Nothing against Taiwan as a country. They're trustworthy fellas. But its 100% about their security situation.
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Consider this: Israel's Iron Dome has protected its cities from Hamas rockets, and we have full expectation that this will continue into the future. Sure, the Iron Dome has its weak points, but it clearly works.
Even if Taiwan gets an "Iron Dome-like" shield, China has 3000mph hypersonic missiles that almost certainly will destroy every single CRAM we place inside of Taiwan. There's a big difference from dumb-rockets lobbed at 500mph (Hamas-level technology) and Chinese BeiDou smart-rockets at 3000mph. (BeiDou is the Chinese-version of GPS).
We pretty much know how the fight will go, even if Taiwan builds a replica of the Iron Dome. I'd give it... maybe 3 days before China wipes out every single CRAM in Taiwan with a smart missile bombardment, followed up of course with Chinese Air Force and Chinese landings. China has a space-agency. They can afford (and probably have) developed space-level guidance systems for their rockets, and have simultaneously demonstrated to the world hypersonic speeds.
How do you defend a small island nation against something like that? US Navy has one advantage over Taiwan... if we blow up Chinese satellites, then China won't know where to aim the rockets (since they won't be able to see our aircraft carriers). You see, aircraft carriers are _moving_ bases, you can't just set GPS coordinates and kill an aircraft carrier, you need some kind of AI-control that can search a 300km-radius and home in on the largest "ship-signature" you can find. There's big questions if the Chinese missiles have successfully made this AI, but everyone knows that its a _possibility_ that China has developed it by now.
Does the PRC really have those hypersonic missiles? I mean, it was one claimed test that there seems to be quite a bit of confusion about. They might have them in a few years, but considering how great a lot of their technology works...
They built some kind of amphibious tank which sinks...
Have you been to Taiwan? It's not a tropical island with sandy beaches, so in as much as the PRC might be able to take out some strategic targets, it's not an island where it's easy to land.
Once again, I see a lot of opinions in favour of the PRC from people that have never visited Taiwan and it's making me a bit fed up. Believe whatever you want, but it's not going to be a walk in the park to invade Taiwan if that's what Xi decides he wants to do.Oh, I never said that, he obviously want to make Intel look like they need as much help as possible from the US government when he speaks to a local audience.
I just think there might've been a better way to do so than trash a whole nation alongside with the competition. Especially when Intel later on has to try to negotiate with a competitor in that country that he just trashed. Oh well, his problem...
There's no doubt that China has hypersonic missiles. The question is if China has homing hypersonic missiles (ie: can kill a Carrier moving at 35mph). Its one thing to use GPS / BeiDou to destroy all of Taiwan's military airports and stationary defenses... those move at 0mph. Its totally a different thing to hit a moving aircraft carrier that can turn on a dime (
There's almost no doubt that Chinese subsonic cruise missiles, supersonic missiles, and hypersonic missiles will work as a team and systematically destroy Taiwan's air-force and defenses. Once those are down, Chinese Air Force will simply bombard the landing sites with smart bombs (and much, much cheaper cruise-missiles), making any landing a piece of cake. You can't expect the Taiwanese Army to stay on the beaches if cruise missiles + Chinese air force are killing them all.
Opposed landings are hard. Taiwan's military is pretty decent. They've got an air force, small navy, and a decent army actually. But with CRAM's destroyed and the entirety of the Taiwan air force grounded (aka: Hypersonic missiles to destroy all the runways), there's really nothing Taiwan would be able to do against a combined Chinese Missile-force + Air Force supporting a mass landing.
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How does US Military change this? Well, first off, we have the option to destroy all of China's satellites, which means the hypersonic missiles won't be able to accurately hit their targets. That's probably a step too much towards total war though (China would retaliate by destroying the GPS system), so there's a chance we won't do that.
Assuming we aren't authorized to start a space war... we rely upon the fact that US Ships are moving targets, and therefore much harder to hit. US Aircraft Carriers serve as the air-support (replacing the Taiwanese Military Airports destroyed by Hypersonic missiles)... and US AEGIS Cruisers to shoot down the cheaper subsonic missiles as they approach Taiwan. (Each AEGIS Cruiser has the same technology used in Israel's Iron Dome, albeit small enough to fit on one ship and less capable than Israel's Iron Dome... but you get the general gist of what those ships can do). Of course, this assumes that the Chinese Hypersonic missiles can't hit our ships (moving targets are much harder, even if its just moving at 35mph... that's a lot faster than 0mph runways in Taiwan). So I'm still being quite optimistic about this kind of setup...
Chinese hypersonic missiles are probably too expensive to use against Taiwanese artillery positions (an M777 is like $700,000. The Hypersonic missiles are probably tens-of-millions of bucks). So if we can just "keep Taiwan's military in the game", they'll defend the island perfectly. Cruise missiles are on the order of ~1-million bucks, and probably cost-effective to use against M777 positions.
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Taiwan has very nice weapons. M777 + GPS Excalibur rounds can hit a car at 70km out. It will be difficult for China to make opposed landings with that kind of lethality and accuracy.
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Oh right, and for the range of China's hypersonic missiles:
Taiwan comfortably sits inside of China's DF-21 missile range, let alone their ICBMs. With a map like this, there's no doubt in my mind that all of Taiwan's airports and stationary defenses will be destroyed in a matter of days if war begins. The only reason why US Carriers have hope is because carriers move, and are therefore harder to hit and target.
But you can see that China can easily destroy airports in the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea, let alone Taiwan's military airports. I don't really see how the US Air Force can help out in this fight, the US Navy + US Marines will be on their own.
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Remember that "moving target" thing? Well... here's what a DF-21 looks like.
Yeah, that DF-21 hypersonic missile is launched from a truck. China can place those babies anywhere in their country without the need of a base. Any road in all of China serves as a potential launch point for the DF-21.
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In any case, that's what China is openly, and publicly, parading around. They want the world to know that they have these capabilities. Its part of their 'Wolf Warrior" diplomacy. I mean, maybe China is bluffing, maybe this stuff doesn't work very well. But... they're not exactly being secretive about this: nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pentagon-calls-chinas-test-df-21d-and-df-26-anti-ship-missiles-destabilizing-167901
www.dw.com/en/us-successfully-tests-mach-5-hypersonic-missile/a-59333155
Note: The recent failed US hypersonic test was a Mach 20 version...
China's stealth tech is mostly hype :
nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/india-claims-it-has-tracked-chinas-j-20-stealth-fighter-radar-158396
And I'm pretty sure that Japan's sub fleet could single handedly dismantle China's current navy given enough time :
www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/06/22/japan-has-a-plan-for-dismantling-chinas-submarine-fleet/?sh=57705d2d6d6c