Saturday, March 8th 2025
China Develops Domestic EUV Tool, ASML Monopoly in Trouble
China's domestic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography development is far from a distant dream. The newest system, now undergoing testing at Huawei's Dongguan facility, leverages laser-induced discharge plasma (LDP) technology, representing a potentially disruptive approach to EUV light generation. The system is scheduled for trial production in Q3 2025, with mass manufacturing targeted for 2026, potentially positioning China to break ASML's technical monopoly in advanced lithography. The LDP approach employed in the Chinese system generates 13.5 nm EUV radiation by vaporizing tin between electrodes and converting it to plasma via high-voltage discharge, where electron-ion collisions produce the required wavelength. This methodology offers several technical advantages over ASML's laser-produced plasma (LPP) technique, including simplified architecture, reduced footprint, improved energy efficiency, and potentially lower production costs.
The LPP method relies on high-energy lasers and complex FPGA-based real-time control electronics to achieve the same result. While ASML has refined its LPP-based systems over decades, the inherent efficiency advantages of the LDP approach could accelerate China's catch-up timeline in this critical semiconductor manufacturing technology. When the US imposed sanctions on EUV shipments to Chinese companies, the Chinese semiconductor development was basically limited as standard deep ultraviolet (DUV) wave lithography systems utilize 248 nm (KrF) and 193 nm (ArF) wavelengths for semiconductor patterning, with 193 nm immersion technology representing the most advanced pre-EUV production technique. These longer wavelengths contrast with EUV's 13.5 nm radiation, requiring multiple patterning techniques to achieve advanced nodes.
However, this Huawei system must still answer questions about resolution capabilities, throughput stability, and integration with existing semiconductor manufacturing flows. However, commercializing an alternative EUV lithography tool will challenge ASML's position. ASML's latest High-NA EUV tool costs around 380 million US Dollars. No matter the cost for Chinese R&D centers, the Huawei EUV machine will deliver the much-needed upgrade path for the older DUV scanners, which previously limited domestic chip production. Despite China's development of solid IP, its manufacturing progress was limited, but it could experience a "DeepSeek" moment very soon. Leading fabs like SMIC are working with Huawei to integrate the EUV scanners into existing workflows. A solid semiconductor manufacturing workflow takes years to build, so we have to see what the final result will be.
Source:
Yin Sun
The LPP method relies on high-energy lasers and complex FPGA-based real-time control electronics to achieve the same result. While ASML has refined its LPP-based systems over decades, the inherent efficiency advantages of the LDP approach could accelerate China's catch-up timeline in this critical semiconductor manufacturing technology. When the US imposed sanctions on EUV shipments to Chinese companies, the Chinese semiconductor development was basically limited as standard deep ultraviolet (DUV) wave lithography systems utilize 248 nm (KrF) and 193 nm (ArF) wavelengths for semiconductor patterning, with 193 nm immersion technology representing the most advanced pre-EUV production technique. These longer wavelengths contrast with EUV's 13.5 nm radiation, requiring multiple patterning techniques to achieve advanced nodes.
58 Comments on China Develops Domestic EUV Tool, ASML Monopoly in Trouble
About competition. I doubt the Chinese will sell it abroad. If it works and if it offers advantages over ASML's machines, they will probably keep it in China and forbid selling it out of China. Except if US starts lifting it's bans, that I doubt it will happen any time soon.
and then what? Sanctions won't help when they are capable of designing their own CPU's and GPU's at this point for heavy AI work.
That's what this race is all about.
Or... perhaps the result of hard, honest work for the greater good of humanity, and nothing more, right?
ASML: Dutch chip firm says former China employee stole data | CNN Business
That's what has been said about literally every technological advance that the PRC has made that was supposedly impossible for them. The West's casual bigotry is what is allowing the PRC to eat it piece by piece.Bingo. Globalism prevents war because it creates interdependence... when you remove that interdependence, you remove the safeguards against war.Ignore the anti-PRC shills, they are really just the most braindead of bigots with zero critical thinking facilities.
And a whole new ISA would be nice too
Anyways, to reiterate what I said in a previous, related news thread: This is what some of y'all look like rn:
December 2023, Huawei "breaks the 5nm barrier"
Note that the article calls out using triple or quadruple patterning. No notation on those 5 nm chips taking twice as long to produce...but whatever.
DUV used to produce 5nm chips...with the predictable errors and slag produced due to compounding errors
So...on paper claiming 5nm chips, but using old tech with much increased production time and increased errors.
2022 patent for the tech...
Paper mills, the ban on further DUV machines, and research quality
Do I believe that China will "catch-up" to the west? No. Do I believe that they will develop some sort of lithographic tech they claim to be 5 nm, do victory laps, and find that the yields and quality of their cutting edge tech are suddenly no as good? Yeah. There is a future where China, by way of the CCP, throw enough cash at developing stuff that something manages to be produced that isn't an absolute dumpster fire. My problem with the CCP is that to make that happen they are going to have to plow 20-30x as many resources into the system to get it to come out. That isn't a guess by the way, it's the base cost, 60% skimmed directly off the top to bribe people, 20% lost on middle-man transactions, 10% lost in inefficiency, and 5% lost to people not giving a crap because the industry is too big to fail and thus getting fired means nothing as long as the numbers can be manipulated.
Do I wish ASML didn't have a monopoly? Yes. Do I believe that the CCP can develop something that competes? No.
High Speed rail. Youtube video for those who hate reading
Tofu Dregs Different source, same outcome. Also a video
C919...in all it's failure. Boeing is not doing better, so don't chalk that up to the west being better. Chalk it up to race to the bottom, cut all other manufacturers out of the market tactics as inherently hostile and idiotic: 1400 claimed ordered, 11 per year finished, and the plan is to add a second factory and get to 150 per year. Gotta love that China only list of operators. C919 failures, airbus replacement. In 2024. The oldest of these planes is two years old.
Of course, for the world's manufacturing hub you'd expect them to move some weapons. Planes...nope Why the J20 is not being sold. Naval assets? Better learn German German diesel engines for Chinese warships and subs. Yeah, Germany supplies a crap ton of Diesel engines...and when you want something that works you obviously go German.
I can spend literal hours going through this and highlighting anything complex and complicated being beyond the CCP...even if they are flush with doctorate level scholars, because the problem is not the resources. The problem is that the CCP uses them badly. That's apparently just "hate for asia" so I guess I'm a racist then. It's not like Vietnam, Taiwan, and other countries exist in Asia. It's not like the CCP is speed running through late stage capitalistic rot, without the supportive morality that prevents it (to some extent, and in a protected version of capitalism). Yeah, that paper from 2022, with a patent that probably was entirely derived from a western education or source, will absolutely make things happen. It'd be the first time in history it ever did, but I've got a good feeling that this isn't another one of the 11,000 companies that failed in 2023.
Tech insight, chip manufacturer failures in 2023
When the CCP dies, and China gets to compete as a truly peer nation, assuming there's anybody left, then the west should fear China. Until that day comes, I treat their claims as substantive as a fart in a windstorm.
Sure, they still do that, but science and technology have for long been a high focus of the country, with huge investments in education and research - something that we can't even pronounce any more. This resulted in China surpassing all other nations in number of scientists, scientific papers, patent applications... In some areas their development has overtaken Western world already, and the only tools we use to combat this is not advancing on our own, but seeking to stop their advancement or at least stop the products coming to the West, with various bans and tariffs - which of course helps lower their revenue, but ultimately this will only deepen the divide in time.
Interconnected West also has it's vulnerabilities in current climate of screwing over allies, but this is purely political - but that doesn't mean it won't have large influence in tech industry.
And what exactly failed about HSR, as in 70% of HSR in the world is failing how? Japan is failing to build HSR in both India and Vietnam but you don't seem to care.
Also who is supplying Chinese Nuclear Powered submarines, destroyers and soon carriers? Why would the Chinese be bothered with diesel? If you want ***cheap reliable outdated fossil technology***, you go German.
What happened? Brazil created a need by extreme protectionism. Initially, software pirates swooped in, and provided for the immediate need. Pirates became developers, and now Brazil has a surprisingly robust amount of developers Software dev/project list.
In China they steal western tech. They use local universities and middlemen to transfer that tech to industry. They develop cheaper versions, removing any investment in the stuff. They then pump these designs to the market, and let them low bid production to saturate the market. The company in another country that spent $100k developing the tech now has a competitor that can crap out a cheap clone at 70% of the price with none of the research cost. They come to the market, sell at 80% of the cost of the research group, and the research group never earns the money they invested back. That cycle continues until you get a product that you can't make cheap, is protected, or requires tech you cannot replicate because you haven't stolen it yet. You are the CCP...you have investment in spy networks, and you've spent 4 decades pushing for replication and not research. How do you suddenly turn around and make research a priority, when anyone in your own population that suggested that either donated their organs afterwards, or were priced out of the market by cheaper alternatives?CCTV, an arm of the CCP, ran a piece on somebody hand fabricating 5nm chips. They claimed that they'd solved the manufacturing issues with the balls for ballpoint pens...and 80% of the market internal to China told them to go pound sand. The C919 is less reliable than Boeing and Airbus, cannot come close to meeting production goals, and is still reliant on western made goods because they cannot replicate the stuff they stole in the Boeing leaks.
I fear the Chinese people deciding that today is the day, and that the CCP needs to go. If they weren't part of such a backwards power they'd have eaten the lunch of a lot of lazy western markets, who only now are acting as though the CCP hasn't told the west that we are at war with them openly, and acted on that truth. That said, the CCP and the USSR are cut from the same cloth. Their downfall is their former strength, that they've got central planning and almost no flexibility. If the party leader says we need 5 nm manufacturing up and running by June 1st 2025 it will be running by then. If they say the yields must be 85%, the yields will be 85%. By the time the leader is finally aware that everyone is lying to avoid punishment, they are left with nothing to build upon. This is why 11,000 companies for semiconductors and chip manufacturing shutdown in 2023. It was not because they didn't have the resources (people), the training (again, western educations), or the physical resources. It is entirely down to the incentives for developing all of the stuff needed for the next revolution missing. Error 404, incentive to push technology forward not found because it's wasted capital.
You're welcome to hate capitalism all you'd like. Patents, or government protected monopolies, push things forward by making other companies have a hard time competing with you if you invest in development. In return, in a set period of time, that research is made public to enrich everyone. It's not perfect, but it's a far sight better than the communist idea of "sharing" everything. If I new the fruits of my effort would be "shared" and enrich only the people who would low bid with my technology I'd not want to burn myself making that tech. The CCP solved that problem by stealing the tech...where about 99% of their "leapfrogging" development came from. That's great...until there's no new tech to steal, nothing you can replicate, or you suddenly find the rest of the world aware of your "sharing" and unwilling to treat you as an equal anymore. Then you get to be North Korea.You seem to not read. Boeing is something I have issues with...and you think it's a pithy retort?
HSR is failing for a lot of reasons. I refer to the quality and replacement of the wheels causing catastrophic vibrations during riding. I could refer to ghost lines, or to insane costs which cannot be attainable for normal people....but that's another huge discussion. Don't really care about Japan, India, and Vietnam because they haven't tried to resell stolen HSR tech to the rest of the world by undercutting the people who developed it.
You seem to not understand the concept of boats. How many nuclear reactors do the Chinese have? Well, one carrier that cannot leave port without a tug. The other two are steam operated...so diesel and fuel oil. The thing is, most of China's naval assets are green water...IE, not open ocean. Most are powered by diesel, because it's literally the only way to power them. It's kinda silly that you can say they have the largest navy in the world by tonnage, without also considering if the Germans stopped supplying them diesel engines they'd have the largest amount of scrap in the water. You're welcome to bring up the nuclear sub argument...which is old soviet tech with some evolution...but none of that exports... It's amazing that you can read words and have zero comprehension of both what they keep and what they sell, and be so assured that they are awesome. It's almost like you reading comprehension is "what I think you said" instead of "the words." Consider me unimpressed, and entirely sure that the people so sure that China will win are also those too dense to be able to differentiate truth from propaganda. The west isn't perfect, but you don't have to be perfect to be better than the CCP.